Bringing back Josh Naylor had to be the Mariners’ top priority this winter. Credit them for wasting no time in getting it done with a five-year deal for a reported $92.5 million that represented the first major splash of MLB’s free agency.
Mariners general manager Justin Hollander described Naylor to me in October as one of the smartest players he has ever had. Naylor’s perfect 19-for-19 mark on stolen bases in Seattle was an example of that. Despite being one of MLB’s slowest players, Naylor enjoyed a 20-30 season despite having never stolen more than 10 bases in a season — a credit to his baseball IQ.
It was one thing for Naylor to excel in Arizona, where he hit 23% better than league average before his trade deadline arrival; it was another for him to be an even greater offensive force in a much tougher hitting environment in Seattle. Naylor hit 38% better than league average with nine homers and 19 steals in 54 games to close out the regular season with the Mariners. He then showed he was up for the challenge in October, leading the team with a .340 batting average and hitting three home runs on their way to the AL West title and their first ALCS appearance since 2001.
Here’s what’s next after Naylor’s new deal:
What’s Next for Seattle
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There’s a reason the Mariners acquired both Naylor and Eugenio Suarez at the deadline. They needed more pop at both corner infield spots, and Suárez is now a free agent. So is Jorge Polanco, meaning half of Seattle’s infield is still vacant even after re-signing Naylor. The Mariners have options to fill Polanco’s spot in Cole Young and Ryan Bliss, but neither can slug like Polanco. If they want to finish the job in 2025, they’re going to need to add more power in the infield. After coming a game away from making it to their first ever World Series appearance, Seattle simply couldn’t afford to shop on the margins to address the offensive vacancies. The trade was an ideal fit and this move is a great start.
What’s Next for Naylor
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As extraordinary as Naylor’s stolen base total was, it would probably be unwise for the Mariners to expect him to steal 150 bases over the next five years. They should, however, be able to rely on his contact and on-base skills. His bat speed and barrel rate both regressed, and that could be a red flag as it relates to power production moving forward, but he still ranked among MLB’s top three first basemen in both batting average (.295) and strikeout rate (13.7%) in 2025. If he can keep that up while playing a solid first base, as he has done for years, he’ll make that contract worth it.
Beyond the unexpected surge in steals, Naylor’s offensive profile brought an element that Seattle coveted. Of course, his power was helpful — he hit 51 home runs over the last two years — but his on-base skills and approach at the plate were what meshed so perfectly for a Mariners team that struggled to make contact and racked up a troubling number of strikeouts over the previous two seasons.
What’s Next for Other First Baseman Free Agents
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Naylor getting five years certainly doesn’t hurt Pete Alonso’s cause as he seeks the long-term deal he wasn’t able to secure last winter from the New York Mets, but I also don’t think this pact makes a huge impact on the top of the market considering how different Naylor’s profile is from the other top first basemen available.
Naylor and Alonso are basically foils at the position. Naylor is 28; Alonso is about to turn 32. Naylor is known for his contact, on-base and all-around skills; Alonso brings power and offers little with his glove or on the basepaths, but there are few players who can impact a baseball like him. Alonso and Cody Bellinger always figured to command a higher average annual value than Naylor, and that remains the case after this deal. With Seattle no longer in need of a first baseman, there are a plethora of teams who could still use an upgrade at the spot. There are plenty of options available, from the top of the domestic market (Alonso, Bellinger), to the tier below (Ryan O’Hearn, Luis Arraez) to the international market (Munetaka Murakama, Kazuma Okamoto).
