The cliché states that there are two certainties in life — death and taxes.
Here’s a third: Betting will be huge on the NFL regular-season opener, even with an unusual Wednesday kickoff, as is the case in NFL Week 1 odds for the Patriots vs. Seahawks clash.
“It doesn’t matter what day the NFL starts — Tuesday or Wednesday, or a day that’s not even one of the seven,” DraftKings Sports director of operations Johnny Avello said. “Whatever day they start, there’s gonna be a huge audience, and it’s gonna be a heavily bet game.
“You could’ve put Jets vs. Titans on Wednesday and still gotten good handle. But since it’s Patriots-Seahawks, it’s gonna be one of the bigger starts to any season.”
Avello helps break down Patriots vs. Seahawks odds, in this rematch from Super Bowl 60.
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Patriot Plays
Back in mid-May, DraftKings opened the Seahawks as 3.5-point home favorites for Wednesday’s 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff, and the spread stuck there all summer.
“There was absolutely no movement for months,” Avello said Tuesday afternoon. “That doesn’t mean it wasn’t generating good action. There was just no need to move.
“But as of Monday, we went to Seahawks -3 (-118).”
The reason for that? More bettors are weighing in on the Patriots and in multiple ways.
“I knew bettors would take the Patriots on the moneyline. Now, they’re taking the Patriots with the points,” Avello said. “So it’s no surprise that the line dropped to 3. I’m not sure that we’ll see 3.5 again.”
So where does Avello see action going as kickoff draws closer?
“I’m almost certain that the Patriots will continue to be bet on the moneyline,” Avello said, noting New England is currently +142 to pull the outright upset. “A lot of Patriots bettors are gonna take the plus number to win this game straight up.”
Which means DraftKings will likely be rooting for what’s termed a Super Bowl middle, where the favorite wins, but the underdog covers. So something like a Seattle 23-21 victory would be welcomed by bookmakers.
“We find ourselves in that situation quite a bit. We could be in that same position for 49ers-Rams on Thursday.”
More Scores
DraftKings’ Patriots-Seahawks total has been stagnant all offseason, opening and remaining at 44.5. And on Tuesday afternoon, on straight bets, it’s actually almost dead-even two-way action.
But rest assured, the public betting masses will flock to the Over between now and kickoff, if not on straight bets, then certainly on parlays/same-game parlays and such.
“I wouldn’t expect us needing the Over, even though the total has been pretty steady,” Avello said. “I can’t see the public betting anything but the Over.”
Player Prop Pops
Another big element of Wednesday’s game — and every game in NFL Week 1 odds, for that matter — is player props. These offerings have grown exponentially over the past few years.
Specifically, bettors love wagering on Player To Score First Touchdown and Anytime Touchdown.
“First Touchdown Scorer and Anytime Touchdown Scorer are the biggest prop bets on our network,” Avello said. “And on in-game wagering, we’ll have Next Touchdown Scorer and those types of props.”
So far, a couple of running backs are popular TD plays.
“Jadarian Price and Rhamondre Stevenson have taken some money on both anytime touchdown and first touchdown,” Avello said of the Seahawks and Pats running backs, respectively.
Price and Stevenson are +650 co-favorites to score the first TD on Wednesday night, with Stevenson +110 and Price +130 to score an anytime TD. Patriots wideout A.J. Brown, formerly with the Eagles, and Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba are also getting attention in both markets, as will plenty more players by kickoff.
Smith-Njigba is +800 in First TD and +135 in Anytime TD, while Brown is +1000/+155.
“Touchdown scorers seem like the props that have really resonated with bettors and get the most handle of all the prop bets,” Avello said.
