After the Las Vegas Raiders select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first pick in this week’s NFL Draft, the real questions mount.
Which defensive player will the New York Jets take?
Will a running back go in the top three?
Do we get a run on wide receivers?
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Betting markets are obviously fluid, mostly because NFL insiders can swing a price just by sending a tweet or dropping a nugget on live television.
The volatility has handcuffed draft betting in Las Vegas.
“We got killed every year,” South Point director of race and sports Chris Andrews told me. “We haven’t booked the draft since it was here [in 2022].”
Circa Sports activities used to put up tons of betting choices round mid-March. One 12 months, they posted Over/Unders on 50 gamers.
Fifty!
This 12 months, they hung 19 gamers on April 15 with a most guess of $300.
Them’s the breaks.
Listed here are 4 draft bets I made on Tuesday:
Francis Mauigoa Beneath 8.5
Francis Mauigoa High-5 decide
A consensus All-American and a monster of a person at 6-foot-6 and 330 kilos, Mauigoa has all of the makings of a top-five decide.
Nevertheless, ESPN’s Adam Schefter just lately reported that his sources say Mauigoa has a herniated disc. The report is slightly imprecise, and it goes on to say “Tt’s not a major difficulty” and that it’s “asymptomatic.”
Hmmm.
I watched nearly each Miami recreation final season and there was not a soul that might deal with Mauigoa on the precise facet of the road. If a number of NFL groups are going to go on a foundational offensive line piece as a result of he would possibly want surgical procedure at some point, I suppose I’ll must stay with myself.
PICK: Francis Mauigoa Beneath 8.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
PICK: Francis Mauigoa High 5 (+310 at FanDuel)
Jeremiyah Love Over 4.5
Love is a polarizing prospect to put.
A number of pundits imagine the Notre Dame operating again is one of the best prospect within the draft, however most franchises have softened on taking one sky-high.
Positive, Saquon Barkley went No. 2 in 2018, however all-world guys like Bijan Robinson went No. 8 in 2023 and Ashton Jeanty went No. 6 final 12 months. Robinson and Jeanty have been each “elite” prospects, however didn’t go within the high 5.
BetMGM and FanDuel are dealing Love’s O/U at 4.5 with DraftKings and Circa at 5.5. I shot a textual content to Circa Sports activities operations supervisor Jeff Benson, who was variety sufficient to reply whereas having fun with a Hawaiian trip.
“Not a lot love for Love,” Benson mentioned between licks of Lappert’s ice cream.
There’s at all times an opportunity somebody reaches for Love at No. 3 or 4, however Over 4.5 at +150 looks like fairly good math. If he goes No. 5, we win. Please get one of the best quantity.
PICK: Jeremiyah Love Over 4.5 (+150 at BetMGM)
Carnell Tate Beneath 7.5
Tate is one of the best receiver within the draft.
The Chicago native has all of the instruments entrance workplaces covet and NFL Community’s Daniel Jeremiah just lately mentioned the New York Giants could possibly be suitors at No. 5.
Hey now.
I don’t personally assume the primary decide of the John Harbaugh régime is a large receiver, though I’d fortunately settle for. After the Giants, the Browns and Commanders want playmakers on the offensive facet of the ball.
If it comes all the way down to “greatest out there,” Tate ought to go within the high seven.
PICK: Carnell Tate Beneath 7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
