There are bad beats. And then there is what took place in Saturday’s Vanderbilt-NC State game.
NC State +3 bettors were headed to the window to cash their tickets until one of the most improbable finishes imaginable happened, leaving Wolfpack bettors in disbelief and Vanderbilt backers celebrating one of the biggest sport’s miracles you will ever see.
So, how did it happen?
First and foremost, NC State never trailed until the final second. The Wolfpack jumped out to a 17-0 lead and held a 31-21 advantage with just over nine minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.
After a Vanderbilt touchdown made it 31-28, the Commodores got the ball back with just under two minutes remaining and a chance to mount a game-winning drive. But quarterback Jared Curtis threw an interception in the red zone. NC State forced the turnover with 1:04 remaining, and Vanderbilt had only one timeout left to stop the clock.
So, the game was over, right? Very wrong.
NC State led by three with SIX SECONDS remaining and faced fourth-and-3. All the Wolfpack had to do was run through the back of their own end zone, take a safety and win by one.
But as quarterback CJ Bailey began running backward, he stopped and hesitated. At that moment, NC State bettors couldn’t believe what they were watching. Then disaster struck. Bailey fumbled the ball in his own end zone, and Vanderbilt recovered it for the go-ahead touchdown.
NC State had the game won — until it didn’t.
While Wolfpack backers sat in disbelief, the clock showed zeroes, meaning they had at least survived with a push. Right? Very wrong once again.
After further review, one second was put back on the clock, allowing Vanderbilt to kick the extra point and take a 35-31 lead, leaving NC State backers numb. The majority of betting and prediction markets had NC State with a 99.9% chance to win prior to the fumble.
Entering today, FBS teams that had the ball with a lead in the final 10 seconds of regulation were 930-2 since 2015, according to Sportsradar.
The only other losses:
- Michigan in 2015: Up 23-21 against Michigan State with 10 seconds left in the game, before fumbling the snap on a punt that was returned for a score.
- Oklahoma State-Central Michigan in 2016: Oklahoma State had the ball on 4th down with four seconds left and scrambled around and threw the ball down the sideline to waste time. The play was ruled intentional grounding, and CMU was awarded an untimed down despite the loss-of-down penalty. The Chippewas then scored on a Hail Mary lateral to win the game.
Whereas there have been loads of unhealthy beats over time, this one would possibly prime all of them. When you have been on NC State, our condolences. When you have been on Vanderbilt, go purchase a lottery ticket.
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