It’s a matchup on the other side of the globe — but we’re talking about the NFL here.
Expect 49ers-Rams, on Thursday night in Melbourne, Australia (where it’ll be Friday), to do bang-up numbers in NFL Week 1 odds.
“It’ll be one of the higher-bet games of the year,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that marquee matchup and a few other intriguing games, as we dive into NFL Week 1 betting nuggets.
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What’s Up Down Under?
Caesars Sports bounced between Rams -3.5/-4 over the past four months, since NFL Week 1 odds first went up in mid-May. As of Wednesday afternoon, it was Rams -3.5 (-118), indicating that perhaps -4 could return before Thursday’s 8:35 p.m. ET kickoff.
As everyone knows by now, Los Angeles added sack-master Myles Garrett in the offseason, and Aaron Donald unretired to rejoin the Rams. Garrett will be in action Thursday, but Donald didn’t make the international trip.
The Rams are plenty potent on offense, too, led by reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford. The public betting masses are certainly attracted to L.A.
“We’re seeing some Rams action, and I anticipate more as we get closer to game time,” Feazel said. “I assume we’re gonna need the 49ers. And even though we need the Over at this point, I assume we’ll need the Under by kickoff, with this being a standalone game on Thursday night.”
Caesars total is at 48.5, up from a 47.5 low point and down from a 49.5 high point.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is getting involved in the 49ers-Rams opener. He’s on the underdog, believing there’s been an offseason overreaction to Los Angeles.
“I took San Francisco +4,” McKay said. “It’s a weird spot in Australia. But it looks like we can get basically a fully healthy 49ers club, so getting more than a field goal looks attractive.
“The Rams will be an over-inflated spread team to start the season, and deservingly so. But this looks like a good spot. I expect a close game.”
NFL Rocks on Fox
In America’s Game of the Week, FOX kicks it off with a big NFC East rivalry: Commanders vs. Eagles at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday.
At DraftKings Sports, the Eagles opened as 5.5-point favorites and made a couple trips down to -4.5. But on Wednesday, the Eagles were back at -5.5.
Washington hopes a healthy Jayden Daniels can help keep up with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Last season, Daniels missed 10 games due to various injuries.
But bettors are leaning into the home favorite at DraftKings, with 64% of spread tickets and 76% of spread money backing the Eagles. And no question, Philadelphia will be a hugely popular play in moneyline parlays.
Another notable FOX matchup: Buccaneers vs. Bengals at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.
A severe turf toe injury kept Bengals QB Joe Burrow out of the lineup much of last year, from Weeks 3 to 12. But Burrow is healthy for a showdown against Baker Mayfield & Co.
Caesars has Cincinnati as a 3.5-point home favorite, which is where this number stuck pretty much all summer. While the public hasn’t weighed in much yet for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX, Feazel is pretty certain of where things are heading.
“There’s a lot of hype around Joe Burrow. I anticipate seeing more Bengals action,” he said.
Sunday Night Fight
It’s another NFC East showdown on the NFL Week 1 oddsboard: Cowboys vs. Giants at 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday.
Back in mid-May, the Cowboys opened as 1.5-point favorites, but quickly advanced to -2.5. Over the past week at Caesars, Dallas advanced to -3 a couple times, and that’s where the Cowboys sat on Wednesday afternoon.
With a popular Dallas squad in the Sunday night spotlight, this game could be a huge decision for Caesars and every other book. Especially if other popular favorites have a good Sunday, leading to moneyline parlay liability crashing into the Cowboys by Sunday night.
“The public action is gonna be one-sided,” Feazel said. “The Giants brought in John Harbaugh as coach, which will bring in some bettors. But it’s gonna be lopsided action on the Cowboys, one-way traffic.”
Mahomes on Monday
Patrick Mahomes tore up his knee in Week 15 last season, but he’s set to start for the Chiefs vs. the Broncos at 8:15 p.m. ET Monday. Likewise, Denver QB Bo Nix is back and healthy, after suffering a broken ankle in an AFC divisional-round win over Buffalo.
The Broncos — minus Nix — then lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
Caesars opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point home favorites, and K.C. advanced to -3 a couple times. But midweek, it’s Chiefs -2.5 (-117), and early action is perhaps a bit surprising.
“We’re actually seeing more Broncos money come in. A couple of years ago, that would’ve been unheard of,” Feazel said. “But the Chiefs’ defense has arguably gotten worse, and there are questions on offense, as well.
“So far, the public is not buying this Chiefs team.”
But a lot could change between now and Monday night. Keep in mind that on all these NFL games, the overwhelming majority of action comes in on game day, and even more so in the last hour or two.
And if favorites have a big Sunday, there’ll be no shortage of moneyline parlays live to the Chiefs on Monday night.
