NFL Tiers: Which Teams Are Title Contenders Entering 2026?

The NFL’s long summer of speculation ends on Thursday night. As preseason action kicks off, training camp promises to give way to real evaluation, where hidden breakouts emerge and fragile contenders face their first real stress test.

First Things First co-host Nick Wright believes he has the script for how the league will play out. On Wednesday afternoon, he revealed his team tiers entering Week 1 of the preseason, complete with plenty of surprises.

Here’s how Wright breaks down the league entering Week 1 of the preseason:

History Says…

Wright made sure to highlight six teams that are 100-to-1 to make the postseason, as recent history shows someone will. However, in this context, he doesn’t believe any of the Dolphins, Browns, Cardinals, Jets, Raiders, or Titans have a chance this season.

“Almost every year, a team that has these odds and these are the six teams in the league,” Wright said. “History says one of them is making the playoffs. Do you have the courage to pick it? I don’t.”

Lots of high expectations for top pick Fernando Mendoza. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)

Could Be OK!

Wright’s tier here is his least enthusiastic on the list. He has very little to say as the Giants, Colts, Steelers and Vikings are hit or miss and could find themselves right in the middle with eight or even nine wins.

“Seems like they could be okay,” Wright said. “I don’t really have much to say about them. They could win eight or nine games. They could. I don’t know that I believe they will. They could be okay.”

Jaxson will look to build on his second season under center with the Giants. (Photo by Candice Ward/Getty Images)

The NFC South

The NFC South sits in a tier of its own as the most unpredictable division in the league. Still, Wright is all-in on the Buccaneers, mostly because of quarterback Baker Mayfield and how hot he can get when playing with something to prove.

“I like the Bucs,” Wright said. “It’s the NFC South…someone’s gonna go 8-8 and one will win it and I hope it’s Baker [Mayfield]. I hope he will get sizzling within the playoffs.”

Regarding Camps

Not solely are the Commanders and 49ers off to a tough begin in camp, however Wright is now actively involved about each organizations. It’s a regarding development, particularly contemplating they’re already two of the oldest groups within the league.

“Laremy Tunsil’s damage is a big deal,” Wright mentioned. “We don’t have time to do the 49ers regarding accidents. I don’t. These are older groups we talked about that we don’t love. The truth that they’ve one in every of them already has one key man carried out for months and the opposite has a bunch of men out intermittently. It’s only a unhealthy a part of coaching camp.”

Can It All Come Collectively?

Among the many many groups dealing with uncertainty this season, none match the “growth or bust” label fairly just like the Houston Texans. Their destiny will not simply rely upon general roster depth, however the highlight and stress reside squarely on C.J. Stroud.

“What’s the deal and who’s the true C.J. Stroud and who’re we going to see in the event that they get simply good manufacturing from the offense,” Wright mentioned. “That might be a Tremendous Bowl crew. The protection and DeMeco Ryans are so good.”

Feels Like One thing Is Lacking

The Lions and Packers each have a lacking piece heading into the 12 months, however Wright is especially apprehensive about Inexperienced Bay’s protection. The shortage of a transparent return timeline for Micah Parsons was a serious driving issue behind the place he tiered the Packers.

“For the Packers, I do know what I feel is lacking,” Wright mentioned. “Micah Parsons for perhaps, it is perhaps the primary half of the season. Looks like it and that to me is regarding. I do assume these two groups [Lions] might be wonderful, however it feels to me proper now within the center.”

Excessive Ceiling, Low Flooring

The Eagles are the last word wild card within the league this season as they may win the Tremendous Bowl or fully miss the playoffs. Wright stays break up on the Eagles and questions whether or not Nick Sirianni can maintain it collectively.

“The Eagles is perhaps the best ceiling, lowest ground and one of the best instance of any crew I can keep in mind in latest reminiscence,” Wright mentioned. “I completely assume they might be the one seed once more within the NFC. I additionally assume they might be beneath .500 after Thanksgiving and we’re speaking concerning the subsequent head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.”

Jalen Hurts in motion for the Eagles. (Photograph by Emilee Chinn/Getty Pictures)

Show It To Us

The Broncos and Jaguars have been main overachievers final 12 months, and Wright made certain to spotlight that. With Bo Nix and Trevor Lawrence underneath middle, each groups sit in a tier devoted fully to proving that final season wasn’t a fluke.

“14 wins, 13 wins,” Wright mentioned. “Two groups with polarizing quarterbacks. Two groups that their followers really feel like don’t get close to sufficient respect they deserve coming off the 12 months they’d. Broncos clearly beat the Payments in a playoff recreation. Jags had a lead towards the Payments within the playoffs.”

“They obtained to show it to us this 12 months,” Wright mentioned.

Measuring Sticks

Over the following 20 years, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams might each put collectively Corridor of Fame careers and outline the league. Wright believes their careers shall be endlessly linked, which is exactly why he positioned them within the “Measuring Stick” tier to observe their parallel trajectories.

“I say measuring sticks as a result of I imagine these two quarterbacks [Drake Maye and Caleb Williams] are going to be measured towards one another their complete profession,” Wright mentioned. “They each have completely different and wonderful head coaches. I feel they’re each in secure organizations.”

Doubt Them At Your Personal Peril

When doubtful, Wright will all the time have the Chiefs in a tier of their very own.

“Kansas Metropolis Chiefs,” Wright mentioned. “I perceive, you’re a homer, Nick. Right here’s the opposite factor I do know. There are each different crew within the league is allowed to have a nasty 12 months and transfer it..just like the Lions they need to bounce again. The Ravens, clearly they’ll bounce again.”

For Wright, the whole lot hinges on Patrick Mahomes’ well being. Supplied Mahomes stays wholesome, he views 11 wins as absolutely the baseline for Kansas Metropolis, with 13 wins properly inside attain if the whole lot goes proper.

“I feel that each one distinctive Patrick Mahomes wants is his well being, which he has proper now and the secure offensive line,” Wright mentioned. “Their ground in that state of affairs is 11 wins. You add another components that I feel over the course of the 12 months and it turns into a 12 or 13 win crew.”

 Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will goal to bounce again after a comparatively disappointing season. (Photograph by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures)

Is The Grass Greener?

Wright expressed skepticism over the teaching modifications in Baltimore and Buffalo. Though John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott had reached the top of the road, handing the reins to first-time head coaches Jesse Minter and Joe Brady created a large layer of uncertainty.

“Two groups that mentioned we obtained to maneuver on from the coach,” Wright mentioned. “Perhaps. I get it, however each coach-quarterback combo that has ever received a Tremendous Bowl collectively received their first one inside 5 years. For Harbaugh-Lamar and for Allen-McDermott it was 12 months eight, so that they have been prefer it’s not going to occur.”

The Committee Can’t Determine

There’s no determination to be made concerning the Rams and Seahawks for the highest spot on his tier record.

It’s not that Wright is indecisive, however he sees each NFC West powerhouses as equal. With rumors swirling round Aaron Donald’s return making the Rams a Tremendous Bowl favourite, and the Seahawks coming off a dominant Tremendous Bowl victory, Wright has them deadlocked on the high.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford fell wanting reaching the Tremendous Bowl final season. (Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Instances by way of Getty Pictures)

“Apologies for not being definitive right here, however the committee trademark can’t determine,” Wright mentioned. “We’ve gone forwards and backwards between who one of the best crew within the league is to the defending Tremendous Bowl champions of final season. As we sit right here immediately, I can not determine that in preseason Week 1 tiers.”