“Bear Bets” are actual wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is definitely making.
We’re heading to the Ultimate 4 for college basketball, and I am again with a number of wagers for the subsequent spherical of March Insanity hoops. Let’s dive into my picks.
I’ll be the idiot to step in entrance of the Duke prepare right here.
When you have a look at the composite of KenPom, Torvik and Haslam, that grades the sport out as a choose ’em. Duke has misplaced thrice all season. Houston has misplaced simply 4 instances, with three of these losses coming in OT. We’ve bought the top-ranked offense in Duke towards the top-ranked protection in Houston, in response to KenPom.
The Cougars have our bodies like Joseph Tugler and J’Wan Roberts to make life depressing on the inside and deny Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel clear appears. That additionally negates a few of the affect Khaman Malauch has on the opposite finish of the ground the place, keep in mind, Houston is the No. 2 3-point taking pictures group within the nation (39.7%). The Cougars struggled within the first half of the Candy 16 towards Purdue however have been significantly better since.
It actually ought to be an interesting matchup as to which numbers we expect are extra consultant.
The ACC was down dangerous this yr and that is the place Duke collected lots of its numbers. Positive, the Blue Devils had non-conference wins, together with towards Auburn and Arizona, however wasn’t the Large 12 lots higher than the ACC this yr? And Houston ripped by way of it, barring an OT loss to Texas Tech, which actually ought to be taking part in this weekend.
Houston has seven wins over high 15 KenPom groups (and three losses). Duke is 4-0. I ponder, too, how a lot further motivation Houston has after final yr’s Candy 16. The Cougars possible would have crushed the Blue Devils, however Jamal Shead injured his ankle with the Cougars up six with about seven minutes left within the first half, and so they scored simply 35 factors in 27 minutes with out him.
Positive, it is a completely different — and higher — Duke group, but additionally a wholesome and extra full Houston group.
Duke would possibly win and win simply, and I’ll be confirmed improper. Would not be the primary time. However I believe the Duke model has this quantity greater than it ought to be and there is a tad of disrespect for Kelvin Sampson’s squad.
PICK: Houston (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 factors or win outright
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 1 Auburn
Name me skeptical, however I don’t suppose Johni Broome is anyplace close to 100% and that is clearly an enormous downside.
I believe his return to the Elite Eight sport was extra beauty.
“Are you able to simply be a decoy for a couple of minutes till the result’s educational?”
Sure, he knocked down a 3, however he seemed like he needed no a part of utilizing his proper arm on that one large rebound the place he flung the outlet instantly together with his left arm.
The Gators put up 90 earlier this season at Auburn and Alijah Martin and Micah Handgloten did not even play.
If Broome is not totally wholesome, the impact on the defensive finish shall be large.
The Gators will get a ton of second and third probabilities and that is the one motive they’re nonetheless alive right here. I’m a bit stunned the aspect hasn’t run right here (Florida remains to be -2.5) however I do suppose, at minimal, the Gators will put up their share of factors. And it will likely be as much as Auburn’s perimeter shooters to match them.
PICK: Florida group complete Over 81.5 factors
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has lined sports activities for practically three a long time. Whereas school soccer has been his focus, he additionally enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such occasions. Chris lately gained the inaugural Circa Soccer Invitational and completed within the Prime 10 of the Golden Nugget Soccer Contest. He is a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Keep in mind, “The much less you guess, the extra you lose whenever you win!” Comply with him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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