Josh Emmett returns Saturday to a featherweight panorama vastly completely different from once we final noticed him.
It’s been 16 months since Emmett’s vicious knockout of Bryce Mitchell, a end that stored Emmett’s identify firmly within the contenders’ circle. Since then, Ilia Topuria—the person who most not too long ago defeated Emmett—conquered the featherweight division with virtuoso performances towards Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway after which introduced his intentions to go away the division to chase gold at 155 kilos.
Lengthy story quick: At 40, Emmett isn’t as removed from a UFC title shot because it appears.
That’s, except you’re assured Lerone Murphy beats him in Saturday’s UFC Vegas 105 primary occasion. Murphy—presently No. 13 at 145 kilos within the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, three spots behind No. 10 Emmett—has been the sleeper of the featherweight division, with an undefeated document in eight octagon appearances and an rising quantity of high quality wins. He won’t have the field workplace sizzle the higher-ups at TKO are searching for, however one other win ought to give Murphy an hermetic case for a future title shot.
The remainder of Saturday’s card is the now-expected smorgasbord of veterans and up to date Contender Collection signings, so let’s see what we will stay up for and probably study from this weekend’s rivals.
What: UFC Vegas 105
The place: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, April 5. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, adopted by a six-fight primary card at 9 p.m. ET additionally on ESPN and ESPN+.
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy
Is that victory horns I hear?
That’s proper, last week I broke my 2025 streak of incorrect main event predictions with my daring decide of two-time UFC champion Brandon Moreno over Steve Erceg. So proud.
Now it’s time to go streaking and I’m feeling assured leaning in the direction of Lerone Murphy tonight. A couple of occasions this yr I’ve erred by going with the extra skilled fighter (Israel Adesanya, Henry Cejudo, Leon Edwards, Jan Blachowicz) or a fighter to repeat their success in a rematch (Amanda Ribas, Marvin Vettori). Primarily, I’ve failed to acknowledge a sea change on the applicable time.
Murphy is closely favored to beat Josh Emmett and for good motive. He’s robust offensively, adequate defensively (extra on this later), and, frankly, quite a bit much less shopworn than Emmett. By advantage of being seven years Emmett’s junior, you possibly can tick off a bunch of containers in Murphy’s favor.
Emmett is saying all the correct issues about voluntarily taking a break from motion to rejuvenate himself, which is sensible at this stage of his profession. However the sport isn’t at all times form to fighters who take their time and I don’t know if what Emmett gained in relaxation and recuperation could make up for athletic decay. Even when he nonetheless hits like a sledgehammer.
Make no mistake, that’s nonetheless a significant component as Murphy’s chin has been cracked once in a while. That’s not one thing you want to listen to whenever you’re choosing somebody to beat Emmett. One flawed transfer and Murphy can be waking up again in Manchester questioning the place his weekend disappeared to. However I like him to outwork Emmett on the ft for 5 rounds and win a call.
Choose: Murphy
Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito
Now this matchup has some upset potential.
Scorching on the ft, not unhealthy on the bottom, Joanderson Brito appears to get again within the win column after a irritating cut up resolution loss to William Gomis. He gained’t have to fret a few lack of motion right here as Pat Sabatini will meet him head on, it simply won’t be the place Brito prefers the combat to happen.
Really, let’s rephrase that. It won’t be the place Brito ought to favor the combat to happen. Brito has proven prior to now he’s unafraid to check his opponent’s grappling chops, which might be his downfall right here. Sabatini is extra harmful on the mat and even when Brito can keep away from submissions and important harm, Sabatini could have no concern taking part in it protected and holding him down.
This can be a stylistic chess match, one that would simply finish with Brito crowning Sabatini with a crushing mixture. I’m going with the grappler, although, so search for Sabatini to floor Brito early and sometimes and take away his choices en path to a call victory.
Choose: Sabatini
Cortavious Romious vs. Chang Ho Lee
Finger of disgrace to Cortavious Romious for not even coming close to making weight. Come on!
That gaffe is one motive I’m leaning in the direction of Chang Ho Lee. Admittedly, Lee didn’t blow the doorways off in his Highway to UFC finals win, however he confirmed a grittiness that may serve him properly towards the decrease tier of the bantamweight division. Profitable ugly may be simply as a lot of a talent as successful fairly.
Particularly, Lee’s willingness to scrap within the clinch will serve him properly. Romious has potential, however proper now he has a simple model that revolves round fast placing bursts and takedown makes an attempt with little setup. That ought to lead to loads of preventing alongside the cage, the place I like Lee to put on Romious down. Because the bout progresses and Romious realizes Lee will not be wilting, the tide will slowly flip within the South Korean fighter’s favor.
I’m not choosing Lee to win any bonuses anytime quickly, however I believe he outlasts Romious on this night time.
Choose: Lee
Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Brad Tavares doesn’t lose by submission. Gerald Meerschaert by no means wins by resolution and 11 of his UFC wins have come by the use of submission. Straightforward decide for me.
“GM3” forcing a faucet from Tavares would really be probably the most stunning outcomes of the yr and it’s not out of the realm of chance. Tavares has been round perpetually and when you combat for lengthy sufficient, finally you’re going to get caught. There’s no disgrace if that occurs towards Meerschaert, who’s looking for submission victory No. 30.
However I can’t see Meerschaert taking Tavares down with a lot effectiveness, even when the Hawaiian veteran’s wrestling protection has proven noticeable cracks not too long ago. This can be a basic middleweighty-y middleweight bout and meaning three rounds of methodical, technical, and largely low affect placing.
And Tavares is the grasp of these kinds of fights.
Choose: Tavares
Ode Osbourne vs. Luis Gurule
Ode Osbourne is an aesthetic veteran, well-rounded sufficient to place anybody within the division on discover, however lacking that one thing particular to separate himself from the pack. I point out this as a result of latest Contender Collection signing Luis Gurule ought to win this, even when he’s in for a tricky combat.
Gurule has loads of swagger in his step. He’s mild on his ft and he retains his proper hand cocked as he appears to counter when his opponent leaves a gap. He’s not afraid to get in shut and get soiled both, so we’ll see how Osbourne reacts when Gurule ramps up the strain.
There’s additionally loads of junk in Gurule’s sport, which is to say he’ll make the most of unorthodox motion to interrupt Osbourne’s rhythm. It’s a troublesome puzzle to unravel and I’m curious how Osbourne will react if he can’t discover alternatives to attain early.
Gurule tasks as a strong addition to the flyweight roster with prime 20 potential, but it surely’s additionally simply as seemingly he finally ends up filling the Osbourne position down the street. Both means, I’ll take him by resolution in his UFC debut.
Choose: Gurule
Torrez Finney vs. Robert Valentin
That is the correct matchup for Torrez Finney after grinding his means via three Contender Collection appearances to earn a UFC contract. However dig into the tape and also you’ll see he has weaknesses Robert Valentin can exploit.
First off, we have now to say the peak distinction. At 6-foot-2, Finney has six inches of peak on the stout and muscular Torrez, and that’s a discrepancy Torrez has needed to cope with all through his profession. Although he’s fared properly up to now, he’s at all times in danger to soak up harm as he works to shut distance.
When Torrez will get his arms on his opponents, he often takes them for a journey earlier than giving them hell from prime place. The place I fear for “The Punisher” is his submission protection. Valentin is aware of his means round a maintain or two, so he’ll continually be threatening if Torrez takes too many dangers on the bottom. And that’s a definite chance given Torrez’s eagerness to on placed on a present.
Let’s put a pin on the upset speak for now as I nonetheless assume Finney’s wrestling method and uncooked energy are an excessive amount of for Valentin to beat, however finally considered one of these taller middleweights are going to knock him down a peg.
Choose: Finney
Preliminaries
Dione Barbosa def. Diana Belbita
Rhys McKee def. Daniel Frunza
Loma Lookboonmee def. Istela Nunes
Victor Henry def. Pedro Falcao
