UFC 317 Paths to Victory: How can Ilia Topuria stop Charles Oliveira and become a 2-division champion?

Ilia Topuria is chasing greatness at Worldwide Struggle Week.

This Saturday, Topuria strikes as much as 155 kilos to problem Charles Oliveira for the vacant light-weight title in the principle occasion of UFC 317. If he succeeds, Topuria turns into solely the tenth fighter in UFC historical past to win titles in a number of weight courses, becoming a member of the likes of Alex Pereira, Amanda Nunes, Randy Couture, and others.

Equally, Oliveira seeks to make his personal type of historical past on Saturday, trying to turn out to be the primary fighter to carry the light-weight title greater than as soon as. Saturday’s principal occasion is a superfight with tremendous stakes, so let’s check out how every man could make historical past this weekend.

Paths to victory for Ilia Topuria at UFC 317

Ilia Topuria is one of the best prospect in MMA.

That’s a bizarre factor to say a few man who is among the finest pound-for-pound fighters within the sport and was the 2024 Fighter of the Yr, however that’s what occurs once you accomplish a lot and also you’re nonetheless simply 28 years previous. Topuria is simply now getting into his prime combating years, which suggests the unbelievable heights we’ve seen him obtain already mark the low level of his capacity for the foreseeable future. God assist the remainder of the light-weight division.

Topuria’s sport is constructed round his boxing and his stress. Although he’s held out to be a standout grappler, we’ve seen little or no of that facet to his sport, as he largely backs opponents up after which golf equipment them. Not solely does he have large energy—which we all know interprets as much as light-weight—he additionally has brutal physique pictures. All that is backed up by terrific footwork and strong defensive fundamentals.

And in opposition to Oliveira, these are the one instruments he actually wants. Oliveira has at all times been hittable on the toes, counting on his harmful guard to purchase him time when he will get cracked. That also may go in opposition to Topuria, however what he gained’t do nicely in opposition to is the physique work. Oliveira has by no means been nice in opposition to a focused physique assault, and if Topuria will get his A sport going—strolling Oliveira down and ripping physique, then head—that traces up very nicely for the featherweight champion.

Oliveira is sturdy, so Topuria may not get him the primary or the second time, but when he constantly places on the stress, finally he ought to overwhelm the previous light-weight champion.

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Paths to victory for Charles Oliveira at UFC 317

As you will have gathered from above, this isn’t a simple struggle for Oliveira. The truth is, apart from Makhachev, there may not be a worse stylistic matchup for Oliveira at 155 kilos. However simply because it’s arduous doesn’t imply it’s unwinnable.

Oliveira has a number of issues working in his favor on Saturday, most notably, his measurement. Whereas “do Bronx” fought at featherweight as soon as upon a time, he hasn’t been a 145er in a few years, and easily couldn’t make the load now. Oliveira is an enormous light-weight, and the one time we’ve seen Topuria at 155 kilos, he had problem coping with Jai Herbert’s measurement and size. No disrespect, however Charles Oliveira is significantly higher than Jai Herbert.

As the larger man, Oliveira can be well-served to make use of that benefit, not at vary however within the clinch. Charles is a sneaky-good clinch fighter, and his pure measurement edge ought to give him ample alternatives in tie-ups to attain. We haven’t seen Topuria within the clinch too typically, so Oliveira ought to look to check that water instantly.

One other factor working in Oliveira’s favor is his kicking sport. Topuria hasn’t actually fought many fighters who’re devoted kickers, and even so, his opponents have leaned into that weapon due to how efficient it may be. Each Alexander Volkanovski and Josh Emmett went to physique kicks typically, and Oliveira—a greater kicker than each—ought to look to do the identical. Not solely does it rating, however it additionally retains Topuria’s fingers near dwelling, which suggests they’re much less more likely to punch you.

Extra vital than both of these, although, is the footwork battle. Oliveira is unquestionably slowing down, however he can’t afford to present floor on this matchup. Topuria on the assault is a nasty, unhealthy man. Oliveira has to determine the opening bell to not again up an inch, as a result of as soon as he begins transferring backward, the conflict is misplaced.

Questions

I’ve two questions on this matchup that will finally be meaningless, however I nonetheless can’t cease questioning about.

1. How washed is Oliveira? He appeared slower in opposition to Michael Chandler, who Paddy Pimblett then annihilated. Is Oliveira cooked, and we simply don’t understand it but? In that case, this may finish poorly, shortly.
2. Is Ilia Topuria wanting previous Oliveira? “El Matador” has been on fairly the journey over the previous few months, altering his nickname to one thing terribly egotistical, then altering it again, beefing with Islam Makhachev, giving conflicting statements about what he’s going to do, and now brazenly speaking about transferring to welterweight after this struggle. What you aren’t listening to in any of that could be a deep respect for Charles Oliveira or the menace he could pose. Wanting previous opponents isn’t a good suggestion, and it’s doable Topuria is making that mistake.

Prediction

If Oliveira have been a youthful man, I’d like his probabilities to drag off the upset much more. Sure, the stylistic matchup is unhealthy, however Oliveira would have his personal benefits he may play to. Now? Oliveira is on the decline, and the hole in velocity right here goes to be huge. Ilia might be going to must drop him two or 3 times to get it accomplished, however he gained’t have a lot downside doing that.

Ilia Topuria def. Charles Oliveira by TKO (punches) — 2:21, Spherical 2