UFC 313 roundtable: Has Alex Pereira finally met his match?

Alex Pereira was the person of the hour in 2024. Is his time up now that the calendar has turned?

The sunshine heavyweight champion’s reign has been undeniably spectacular, however few would argue he hasn’t benefited from defending in opposition to fighters with a restricted capability to make the most of his grappling deficiencies. That gained’t be the case in Saturday’s UFC 313 essential occasion, when Pereira lastly squares off with the streaking Magomed Ankalaev.

Although Ankalaev has placed on a number of scientific hanging performances, he’s proven he has wrestling in his again pocket, too, and that might be the important thing to fixing the “Poatan Puzzle.”

MMA Combating’s Alexander Ok. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew put their heads collectively to examine what the tip of Pereira’s scorching streak would possibly seem like and what else to look out for at UFC 313.

1. If Alex Pereira loses this Saturday, how does it occur?

Lee: I’m all for holding the martial arts aside, however Magomed Ankalaev must be mixing it like DJ Spinderella if he needs to dethrone Alex Pereira.

Positive, Ankalaev is a good striker and if he can catch “Poatan” and knock him out, it could vault him to a different stage of status. So there’s incentive for him to back up all of his tough talk and throw arms with Pereira. It’s simply that he’s higher served, uh, not doing that, and that’s how the struggle ought to play out if he and his crew have any sense.

That mentioned, I really suppose Ankalaev can find yourself with the perfect of each worlds right here, utilizing his wrestling to throw Pereira off to set him up for a KO/TKO later within the struggle. To invert a cliché, Pereira’s reign will finish with a bang, not a whimper.

Meshew: It will be fully loopy for Ankalaev to KO Pereira. Clearly, Pereira is the superior striker, however Ankalaev hits arduous, MMA is bizarre, and Pereira isn’t a spring rooster. That is additionally his fourth struggle in lower than 12 months and there’s a cause champions don’t often struggle that regularly: it’s arduous. That type of tempo can break you down in delicate methods so it might occur.

That being mentioned, if Ankalaev wins, it’s as a result of he’s not a moron. Hanging with Alex Pereira is a foul concept until you’re Israel Adesanya, and even then it’s 50/50. Pereira is a greater defensive wrestler than many imagine however he’s not Jose Aldo. If Pereira loses it’s as a result of Ankalaev is the superior grappler and implements his will.

Heck: To point out my hand, I’m selecting Pereira, and I really feel fairly good about it. However for the sake of the query, if Poatan sees his unimaginable run come to an finish, Dana White goes to make use of the identical line he used after Belal Muhammad dethroned Leon Edwards: “It wasn’t a barnburner.”

Ankalaev is actually, actually good, and if he can land takedowns early and sometimes, he has an excellent likelihood to win. But when he goes by way of along with his promise to remain standing the entire time, it’s not going to go properly for him. Ought to Ankalaev win, I don’t imagine it is going to be an exciting affair, and Pereira is on his again for 75 % or extra of the struggle.

2. Can Justin Gaethje or Rafael Fiziev lay declare to a title shot within the new co-main occasion?

Photograph by Carmen Mandato/Getty Photographs

Heck: Let’s be clear about this: The reply must be completely not. However, that is the UFC, and that is 2025, and we’ve discovered—particularly on this division—availability is your finest good friend. So I’m not ruling it out, but it surely’s going to take one thing particular, and a bizarre subsequent few months for it to occur.

I don’t suppose Rafael Fiziev has a lot of a shot until he completely obliterates Justin Gaethje with a Spotlight of the 12 months contender. Gaethje, nevertheless, is in a fantastic place with the UFC. Dana White loves him, and he ought to, as a result of everybody else does and now he’s doing the promotion a favor. If he dominates the returning Fiziev, particularly if he will get a end, I gained’t be shocked if Gaethje will get a title shot. The large query then turns into who would he struggle? As a result of if Jack Della Maddalena beats Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, it gained’t be Islam Makhachev.

Lee: Yup. Vacant.

I’m piggybacking off My Greatest Good friend’s reply right here, enjoying with the concept “JDM” scores an upset victory in Montreal (sorry, Belal!), a consequence that clears the way in which for Makhachev to chase a second title at welterweight, and setting off a series response of Muhammad shifting as much as middleweight (there you go, Belal!) and Topuria going through the UFC 313 co-main occasion winner for the vacant belt.

That sounds screwy as hell, however we’re set for a bizarre and wacky second half of 2025, so why not predict one thing dumb like Topuria vs. Fiziev for the light-weight title? Crazier issues have occurred and will occur. Jon Jones might struggle Tom Aspinall. The PFL might generate constructive PR in 2025. The GFL might really schedule a present.

Let’s get loopy.

Meshew: No. That’s why this struggle is kinda lame. If Fiziev wins, it’s a superb win however he misplaced his earlier two. That’s not getting a title struggle. And if Gaethje wins, it’s a superb win however he simply bought bolted by Max Holloway in one of the memorable and iconic KOs ever. Neither man is preventing for the belt subsequent (barring numerous issues taking place). As a substitute this struggle is a bout to see who fights Dan Hooker, which is what we already had, which means we’re simply treading water right here.

AK is correct in that if JDM beats Belal, Islam is instantly shifting as much as welterweight, so possibly that helps their case, however even then, it’s most likely Topuria vs. Oliveira or Arman Tsarukyan.

This shall be a enjoyable struggle that’s in the end meaningless, which kinda sucks given we solely have a couple of Gaethje fights left, at most.

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

3. Exterior of the top-2 fights, who’s the fighter to observe for on this card?

Meshew: The struggle to observe is Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya as a result of that’s licensed sauce, however the fighter is my big-small son, Jalin Turner.

I’ve an irrational love of Turner as a result of he’s a freakishly massive light-weight with a novel and pleasant sport and big deficiencies (you’re keen on folks for his or her faults, not for being excellent!). Sadly, Turner is on a reasonably robust run proper now and so he’s preventing to carry his spot within the top-15 and so he must show he’s nonetheless bought the juice. Ignacio Bahamondes is a rattling good fighter however I want Turner to go full Tarantula on him with the membership and sub. I feel he’ll and other people will keep in mind that Jalin Turner is a risk to anybody he steps within the cage with.

Heck: It’s Mauricio Ruffy.

This man, very similar to his fellow Combating Nerds Jean Silva and Carlos Prates, is much-watch TV. There gained’t be any boring Ruffy fights, however how good is he? Is he a man who shall be of a Drew Dober-like ilk the place we’re simply pumped he’s preventing and at finest he’s a backend of the top-15 type of man? Or is Ruffy a fighter now we have to regulate that may climb the ranks within the sport’s finest division?

We gained’t absolutely have our reply Saturday, but when he goes on the market and runs over a veteran like King Inexperienced—who has spoiled many a celebration over time—I do know I’ll proceed to lean extra in the direction of the latter.

Lee: Individuals, it’s me. I’m selecting an Final Fighter winner.

Regardless of being tagged as a top prospect to watch on the Brazilian scene all the way in which again in 2021, Mairon Santos was inexplicably the second-to-last featherweight fighter picked on TUF 32. “The Legend” outpointed some stiff competitors on his approach to the finale, the place he routed Kaan Ofli in a little bit over a spherical to assert a match title. Nonetheless a couple of months shy of his twenty fifth birthday, Santos is at present in Las Vegas underneath the tutelage of Xtreme Couture mastermind Eric Nicksick and has all of the makings of a promising featherweight prospect.

A showcase efficiency over Francis Marshall will put Santos on monitor for a giant 2025 marketing campaign and within the hunt for a top-15 spot in 2026.