Islam Makhachev has a shock opponent. Once more.
For the second time in three fights, the UFC light-weight champion finds himself in a clumsy state of affairs as he sees a high-profile rematch fall by and a brand new problem emerge that presents him with little to realize and all the things to lose.
When it occurred at UFC 294, Makhachev was supposed to satisfy Charles Oliveira for a second time, just for Oliveira to undergo a lower throughout battle week that dominated him out of the competition. Then-featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski stepped up on little discover for his personal shot at revenge towards Makhachev, however was dismissed emphatically by a Makhachev head kick. So in a roundabout approach, that one labored out for the light-weight champ, because it produced among the best highlights of his profession.
For UFC 311, Makhachev was alleged to headline towards Arman Tsarukyan, a harmful challenger that Makhachev defeated when Tsarukyan made his UFC debut over 5 years in the past. As an alternative, a back injury forced Tsarukyan out of the contest, leading to Renato Moicano being promoted from a bout with Beneil Dariush to take his place. Can Makhachev once more make magic occur in surprising circumstances?
Or is “Cash Moicano” about to turn into “Hundreds of thousands Moicano?”
Within the co-main occasion, bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili faces a frightening process within the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov. Dvalishvili clawed his technique to the title and presently rides an 11-fight win streak, however Nurmagomedov is strongly favored to finish Dvalishvili’s reign earlier than it has correctly begun.
Additionally on the primary card, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill meet in a bout that would earn the winner a light-weight heavyweight title shot, heavyweights Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac look for a quick end, and Kevin Holland takes on former ONE two-division champion Reinier de Ridder.
What: UFC 311
The place: Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
When: Saturday, Jan. 18. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, Disney+, and FX, adopted by a four-fight preliminary card airing on those self same platforms and ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight foremost card begins at 10 p.m. ET completely on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses point out standing within the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Islam Makhachev (1, P4P-1) vs. Renato Moicano (12)
For those who’re giving Renato Moicano an opportunity right here, that requires some selective reminiscence. As a result of the final time Moicano took a battle on quick discover towards a championship-caliber light-weight, it was Rafael dos Anjos, and he bought fully destroyed.
True, that is hardly the identical state of affairs. When that occurred to Moicano at UFC 272, he took the bout on 4 days’ discover as a alternative and had zero preparation. This time, Moicano was already scheduled to battle elsewhere on the primary card, so despite the fact that he hasn’t been getting ready for Islam Makhachev particularly, he’s no less than in high combating kind.
I can’t escape the comparability although, particularly with Makhachev additionally probably going to his wrestling early and infrequently to stifle Moicano. Makhachev is just a beast in all points, and never simply offensively. He hardly ever will get hit clear (which is why the success Dustin Poirier had towards him was so compelling) and in terms of grappling, overlook it, there’s no approach you’re making him faucet when there’s cash (pardon the pun) on the road. Even when Moicano had a yr to organize for Makhachev, I wouldn’t like his probabilities of fixing this puzzle.
Makhachev controls the motion early, instantly sapping Moicano’s confidence. Then he wins the battle anyway he desires to earlier than the championship rounds are obligatory.
Choose: Makhachev
Merab Dvalishvili (1, P4P-9) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (2)
Umar Nurmagomedov has the benefit in nearly each division over Merab Dvalishvili. I favor Nurmagomedov’s wrestling barely and his putting significantly, the standup particularly due to the scale he has on the champion. I like him to beat Dvalishvili on the bottom and I additionally anticipate him to present him complications within the clinch.
Straightforward win, proper? Nothing is simple for any opponent once they should take care of Dvalishvili’s cardio and toughness. It’s one factor to examine off a bunch of containers in Nurmagomedov’s favor once you’re this on paper; it’s one other for them to truly, you recognize, battle. Being powerful as f*ck and a continuous—ahem—“Machine” as soon as that bell rings, that’s not a foul technique for successful selections in case you haven’t heard.
There’s merely no technique to predict how Nurmagomedov will fare towards Dvalishvili if this goes into deep waters. Dvalishvili is damn-near unimaginable to complete (his submission loss to Ricky Simon stays probably the most bizarre endings I’ve seen) and his tempo can’t be matched. Although Nurmagomedov handed his five-round take a look at towards Cory Sandhagen with flying colours, that’s simply not a comparable matchup. Dvalishvili shall be on Nurmagomedov from second one and it’s on the challenger to maintain up.
I’ve been touting Nurmagomedov because the bantamweight to beat for years and now will not be the time to be leaping off the bandwagon. A Dvalishvili determination win gained’t shock anybody, particularly when you think about the added bulletin board materials he’ll certainly have heading into this one as a large underdog. He’s confirmed the doubters mistaken time and again, however he’s simply up towards a superior power this time.
Nurmagomedov by determination. And new.
Choose: Nurmagomedov
Jiri Prochazka (3) vs. Jamahal Hill (6)
Jamahal Hill couldn’t have requested for a greater opponent to maintain his championship hopes alive. He additionally couldn’t have requested for a worse one, most likely.
Jiri Prochazka is as harmful as any fighter on the UFC roster, with knockout energy in each limb and a free-flowing type that’s unimaginable to coach for. His unpredictable nature has labored towards him previously although as he can enterprise into hazard along with his palms low and his chin simply asking to eat an influence shot. Calamity quickly follows, both for him or his opponent. It’s why we love the large Czech.
He’s in powerful towards Hill, an informed striker with legit knockout energy. If Prochazka performs too many video games on the ft, Hill will determine him out and put him away. The primary couple of minutes of Spherical 1 ought to make for an interesting examine, as we wait and see who takes the primary danger and, extra importantly, who can achieve this successfully.
It’s on Prochazka to disrupt no matter recreation plan Hill is getting into with, as a result of if Hill controls the vary early, he may placed on a showcase efficiency. Disruption is the title of Prochazka’s recreation, although, so search for him to beat Hill to the punch, resulting in a extra chaotic second spherical that tilts ever so barely in Prochazka’s favor till he can land a fight-ending strike.
Choose: Prochazka
Jailton Almeida (8) vs. Serghei Spivac (9)
Jailton Almeida, that is your yr.
OK, I can’t say with confidence that Almeida makes his technique to a title shot in 2025—although I’ve lengthy believed his grappling alone is sufficient to get him there—however I’m selecting him to get his marketing campaign off to an incredible begin with a lopsided win over Serghei Spivac.
Credit score to Spivac for grinding—and let’s be trustworthy, provided that he solely turns 30 subsequent week, outlasting—his technique to a top-10 rating as he struggled out of the UFC gate at first. He’s since proven a deft of completion, one which simply hasn’t materialized towards the elite of the division. That’s the tier I put Almeida in and given Spivac’s questionable defensive abilities, I don’t anticipate to see any cause to alter that analysis Saturday night time.
Almeida finds a takedown early, places that magical jiu-jitsu to work, and turns into the primary fighter to submit Spivac.
Choose: Almeida
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Didn’t perceive this matchup when it was made, don’t perceive it now. Nicely, apart from the truth that it’s Kevin Holland and once you ship him a contract, he indicators it, no questions requested. An admirable mindset, however not one which’s conducive to holding one’s document respectable.
You possibly can’t begrudge Holland for benefiting from his athletic prime and cashing as many checks as potential, one thing he’s accomplished with aplomb all through his UFC profession. The highs have been fairly excessive, however there have been forgettable lows and he’s in a tough droop proper now. He’s misplaced three of his final 4 and even if you wish to embrace his aggressive performances towards Michael Page and Jack Della Maddalena, these occurred at welterweight, the place he needs to be combating, however isn’t.
Making issues much more complicated is that not solely is Holland combating at middleweight, he’s dealing with down one other middleweight with a powerful grappling recreation simply three months after getting mauled by Roman Dolidze. It’s one factor to be a gamer, it’s one other factor to be foolish together with your matchups. That is foolish.
Reinier de Ridder is larger, is aware of his approach round a takedown, and likes to hunt for submissions. That’s a recipe for catastrophe for Holland if there may be one. Then once more, each time de Ridder comes ahead along with his wonky standup, it may spell catastrophe for him, as a result of one burst of sustained offense from Holland may finish with de Ridder consuming canvas.
I’m nonetheless assured de Ridder forces the difficulty and will get this to the bottom the place he gained’t have a lot hassle discovering a end.
Choose: De Ridder
Preliminaries
Payton Talbott def. Raoni Barcelos
Bogdan Guskov (T15) def. Billy Elekana
Grant Dawson def. Diego Ferreira
Azamat Bekoev def. Zachary Reese
Karol Rosa (10) def. Ailin Perez (15)
Rinya Nakamura def. Muin Gafurov
