Everybody appears to know that Aaron Rodgers goes to land with the Pittsburgh Steelers — everybody besides Aaron Rodgers.
However Russell Wilson and the New York Giants did not wait. They agreed on a deal on Tuesday that ought to pave the trail to Wilson as QB1. And it stands to purpose that Wilson made that call beneath the belief that Rodgers was taking up for the Steelers.
RELATED: Giants add a QB, reportedly agreeing to deal with Russell Wilson
As soon as Rodgers finds his residence for 2025, it would depart a group determined sufficient to commerce for Kirk Cousins. Possibly that is the Cleveland Browns, who had met with Wilson. The Tennessee Titans will draft a quarterback (*cough* Cam Ward *cough*). And the sport shall be over. The lacking items will probably be Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart, a pair of probably first-round picks who will compete however not essentially win beginning jobs someplace.
It is a matter of time earlier than we see the ultimate items fall into place. Within the meantime, let’s dive into the QB carousel, breaking down every transfer.
Giants: Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston
The offers: For Wilson: one yr, $21 million ($10.5 million assured). For Winston: two years, $8 million
What’s to love?
Wilson: The strongest promoting level for Wilson’s success is likely to be Malik Nabers, who’s a particular expertise at wideout — and one uniquely expert at creating downfield separation and preventing for 50-50 balls. So, sure, right here come extra of Russ’ moon balls. In the same approach, George Pickens and Wilson did properly collectively in Pittsburgh. I believe one thing comparable will evolve between Wilson and Nabers. I am form of afraid that is likely to be the one promoting level for Wilson’s success in New York, nevertheless.
Winston: He has expertise beginning and serving as a backup, which is why he is a pleasant addition, notably at such a modest worth level. He has the flexibility to play extraordinarily properly for spurts, although we have but to see him maintain success for a complete season.
What’s to not like?
Wilson: It is not completely clear how a lot the 36-year-old Wilson has left within the tank. His time in Denver was a disaster and a complete waste of sources for the Broncos. However his time with the Steelers was completely nice: an upswing of momentum from all-time low. Wilson is mentally powerful. He is at all times optimistic. He is an excellent individual for New York, which tends to grind away at mentally weak quarterbacks. However finally, he cannot win on mentality alone. He’ll want a group and scheme that may spotlight his strengths. That places the ball in Brian Daboll’s courtroom to get again to the standard of teaching we noticed from him in 2022.
Winston: The interceptions — they will at all times be there.
What to anticipate:
Wilson: He is not completely out of the woods when it comes to profitable the beginning job. A deal for as much as $21 million and $10.5 million assured is hardly starter cash. It’s, in truth, a fringe deal that would simply land him as a backup to a rookie. Deion Sanders stated Tuesday that he hopes his son Shedeur lands in New York. The Giants’ plan is murky at greatest, however Wilson’s deal would not tip their hand about draft plans. Each of those veteran offers point out that New York might simply draft a quarterback and sit him for among the season behind Wilson. My sense is that the Giants will draft a developmental QB on Day 2. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe makes loads of sense.
Winston: He’ll again up Wilson and can solely play if the QB1 will get damage or fully loses kind, akin to what occurred in Denver.
Seahawks: Sam Darnold
The deal: three years, $100.5 million, $55 million assured
What’s to love?
The apparent query is: Why undergo the structural modifications to exchange a QB? Seattle traded Geno Smith and signed Darnold. It is a whole lot of motion to swap out prolific however not extremely revered signal-callers.
The apparent reply is: The Seahawks suppose they’re getting extra bang for his or her buck with Darnold.
In Seattle, Darnold shall be in comparison with Smith. So let’s deal with that comparability proper off the bat. Darnold is a strong-armed, athletic quarterback who might be going to finish fewer passes however — if we take his 2024 movie at face worth — amplify performs and fewer game-wrecking errors. Smith is the extra environment friendly and correct passer and may ship surgical drives. Darnold is the splashier participant, with a knack for explosives.
So the Seahawks in all probability picked Darnold as a result of they suppose he provides them a greater likelihood in fourth quarters — pointing particularly to the fourth quarter of the Vikings’ 27-24 win over Seattle in Week 16, when Darnold closed the door on Smith & Co. Darnold had 34 big-time throws in 2024 whereas Smith had 28, per Professional Soccer Focus.
Will Sam Darnold increase the Seahawks’ ceiling?
What’s to not like?
Darnold could have gained that recreation towards the Seahawks, however it’s Smith who has probably the most fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives (17) over the previous two seasons, greater than even Patrick Mahomes (15) and Jalen Hurts (14).
Darnold completed with fewer interceptions than Smith, however he had considerably extra turnover-worthy performs, per PFF. Darnold had a whopping 27; Smith had 18. In a way, Darnold was luckier than Smith. And in additional methods than one. Darnold’s circumstances in Minnesota had been about pretty much as good because it will get for a QB. Coach Kevin O’Connell is the most popular identify within the offensive ranks. Justin Jefferson is the league’s greatest receiver. Aaron Jones is one heck of a working again. It is not fairly like that in Seattle, which simply minimize Taylor Lockett and traded DK Metcalf.
What to anticipate:
It is all including as much as a statistical regression for Darnold.
It is simple to think about he’ll fail to fulfill expectations.
The Seahawks are rebuilding, whereas the Vikings had been constructed to have Darnold succeed. Proper now, quarterbacking is as a lot in regards to the location because the participant himself. And a man like Darnold has but to show he has the expertise and poise to raise past his circumstances.
However! I acknowledge that coach Mike Macdonald has a plan. Here is what I believe it seems to be like.
Seattle, which needs to get again to the working recreation, will in all probability need to throw 4 or 5 fewer occasions per recreation whereas getting the identical passing manufacturing. The Seahawks are clearly considering that their offense goes to mannequin itself after the Vikings’ unit from final season. That is why Darnold is an effective match. He can let the bottom recreation take heart stage after which put the ball within the arms of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Noah Fant and, probably, one other pass-catcher to be acquired.
It is truthful to level out, too, that Smith did not regress final season beneath Macdonald’s employees. So even when there’s turnover round a QB, the second-year teaching employees has a file of working with the man to maintain his high-level efficiency.
Raiders: Geno Smith
The deal: three years, $75 million, $40 million assured. (Smith additionally arrived in a commerce for the 92nd general choose within the 2025 NFL Draft.)
What’s to love?
There is no query that coach Pete Carroll can succeed with Smith. They’ve already finished it in Seattle. Smith has Carroll (and his teaching employees) to thank for revitalizing his profession. Smith is among the many greatest level guards within the NFL, with an eye fixed for locating the correct matchup and the open receiver. We already understand how that matches into Carroll’s id schematically.
What’s to not like?
The Raiders aren’t a gifted group on offense. Las Vegas’ high receiver is Jakobi Meyers. The group’s high working again is Sincere McCormick. We’re a great distance away from Week 1, however for a degree guard like Smith, he will not be discovering many open receivers. His offensive line is not nice, however it wasn’t all that superior when he was in Seattle, both. The most important level of concern is playmakers: How rapidly can Carroll encompass his QB with threats?
What to anticipate:
The Raiders will draft a working again, possibly even Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, within the first spherical. However they might wait — this class is meant to be freakishly loaded with backs. Las Vegas will discover a receiver … or three. Veteran Amari Cooper remains to be on the market. Till the Raiders herald a supporting solid for Smith, nevertheless, the quarterback’s outlook shall be pretty grim. The Raiders want to start out making strikes.
Jets: Justin Fields
The deal: two years, $40 million, $30 million assured
What’s to love?
There have been a whole lot of similarities within the tape between Jayden Daniels‘ first few video games with the Commanders and Justin Fields’ first few video games with the Steelers. This is not to say that Fields was about to emerge as one of many NFL’s most harmful playmakers. However it’s to say that the Steelers put Fields right into a rookie recreation plan (secure and easy), and he excelled in that position.
What’s to not like?
Look, let’s simply get it on the market … the Jets are the Jets. They cannot have good issues.
I do not dislike the Jets. I simply really feel sorry for them. And I do know, in the event you’re a Jets fan, you do not need my pity. However I am simply making an attempt to be practical a couple of quarterback who has performed common for just a few video games in a row. He wasn’t so good that the Steelers could not substitute him with Russell Wilson. Fields is leaving one of many NFL’s most steady environments (Pittsburgh) and coming into one of many NFL’s least steady environments (New York). And as I have been stating, that issues enormously to those quarterbacks making an attempt to determine themselves — and cease the journeyman section of their careers.
It is simple to think about New York — even with a brand new teaching employees beneath Aaron Glenn — halting Fields’ progress.
Did the Jets make a wise transfer by signing Justin Fields?
What to anticipate:
Hopefully, the Jets choose up the place the Steelers left off. Fields would not essentially want a fantastic offensive line, although it would assist. He would not even really want an offensive chock-full of weapons, although once more it would assist. He wants his first or second learn to get open, after which he wants house to make performs together with his legs. That is the place this offense ought to begin: Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall (in each the dashing and passing recreation). Fields will be decisive in that form of offense. After which — who is aware of? — hopefully they’ll construct from there.
That form of offense will get predictable, in fact. So if Fields needs to win the QB1 job for the foreseeable future, he’ll must develop. And if he grows sufficient, possibly he’ll hold the Jets from drafting one of many touted QBs within the 2026 NFL Draft. That is the place New York may need its eyes for a QB of the long run. Fields must play properly sufficient to carry his GM’s consideration.
Colts: Daniel Jones
The deal: one yr, $14 million
What’s to love?
He is positively a man who performs quarterback. That is … good?
Throughout Jones’ rookie season with the Giants, there have been factors when he was enjoying quarterback pretty properly. And the Colts, who’ve struggled to develop Anthony Richardson, may discover they want a quarterback who can play pretty properly. And Jones’ worth displays that he is proper on the cusp of beginning.
The humorous factor is, I’ve projected a regression for each QB on this listing. Jones truly is likely to be the one man whose inventory can enhance. I do not actually care that he had an internship beneath Kevin O’Connell with the Vikings. It is onerous to think about {that a} quick stint as a scout-team QB did a lot. However in Indy, Jones shall be a pocket passer, at the beginning. That is not Richardson — not but. And with assist from working again Jonathan Taylor and receivers Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Adonai Mitchell, Jones at the very least has a supporting solid that may make him look good. (Even when that solid could not do the identical for Richardson.)
What’s to not like?
Jones has not thrown greater than 15 touchdowns since his rookie season. He has by no means thrown for 4,000 yards. Over the previous few years, there aren’t many metrics that assist the concept he is a starting-caliber quarterback. So it will be greatest if he was a break-in-case-of-emergency quarterback this season for Indy. Richardson must grow to be the QB1 the Colts hoped he’d be once they chosen him fourth general within the 2023 draft. In the event that they flip to Jones, it will be as a result of Richardson has failed. And if Jones fails quickly after that, it might mark the tip of an period for GM Chris Ballard in Indy.
What to anticipate:
Jones will compete for the beginning job. Ballard has made that clear. Given what we have seen from Richardson, it is distinctly doable that coach Shane Steichen picks Jones. I am going to admit my bias: I would like Richardson to succeed. I believe the Colts have enormously bungled his improvement. However this is not the kind of league the place coaches and GMs do what’s truthful. It is in regards to the backside line: Who’s one of the best QB for Week 1? Jones is likely to be that man. And if he’s, he’ll have a vanilla yr, in all probability finishing 65% of his throws for 3,300 yards, 25 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.
Vikings: J.J. McCarthy
The deal: 4 years, $21.8 million, totally assured
What’s to love?
This seat is not just like the others on this recreation of musical chairs. McCarthy is not technically a brand new arrival. He’s returning off injured reserve after sitting out his rookie season with a torn meniscus in his proper knee. The damage gave life to Darnold’s profession. Darnold’s departure will give life to McCarthy’s.
The Vikings took him at No. 10 general final yr with the objective of creating him into top-of-the-line QBs within the NFL. Given O’Connell’s sizzling streak with creating QBs, it is simple to love Minnesota’s possibilities with McCarthy. The Vikings reportedly turned down commerce presents for him and in addition handed on signing free-agent Aaron Rodgers.
And with Darnold leaving, the Vikings are solely getting higher at different positions — taking full benefit of their QB on a rookie deal. They retained their high free agent, cornerback Byron Murphy. The return of working again Aaron Jones is very large. After which they added starting-caliber gamers (and potential Professional Bowlers) in heart Ryan Kelly, guard Will Fries and defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. It is doable cornerback Isaiah Rodgers has an enormous position, too.
This roster is likely to be even higher than in 2024. Will the quarterback be?
What’s to not like?
We simply do not know what McCarthy seems to be like in NFL motion. He threw a couple of passes final preseason earlier than his damage. And whereas we’re on that matter, it is essential to keep in mind that quarterbacks are hardly ever 100% of their first season again from a knee damage.
RELATED: Vikings have yet to tell J.J. McCarthy he’s QB1 after turning down Aaron Rodgers
What to anticipate:
McCarthy will face nothing however stress and excessive expectations from Day 1. He’ll have to copy what Darnold did. And even when the tip of the yr did not look good, Darnold was excellent on the entire: 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. The hype shall be via the roof for McCarthy.
I do not suppose he’ll ship fairly like Darnold did. McCarthy’s manufacturing will in all probability are available at 90 p.c of Darnold’s 2024 season. What is going to matter most is whether or not McCarthy can push the Vikings deeper into the playoffs.
Previous to becoming a member of FOX Sports activities as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years overlaying the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports activities Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Observe him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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