NFL Week 17 odds include a trio of Christmas Day games that will no doubt attract the public betting masses. Never mind that those contests aren’t as appealing as they were just a few weeks ago.
But the weekend more than makes up for it, most notably with a marquee matchup of Eagles vs. Bills in America’s Game of the Week on FOX.
“We have a pretty sizable decision on that game,” Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Eagles-Bills and more, as we dive into NFL Week 17 betting nuggets.
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NFL Rocks on FOX
The Bills are 11-4 straight up (SU) and 7-8 against the spread (ATS), winning their last four games (2-2 ATS). The Eagles (10-5 SU/9-6 ATS) won and covered in their last two outings, after a three-game losing streak.
Philadelphia has already clinched the NFC East, assuring a home playoff game, but can’t get the No. 1 seed and the bye. On the flip side, Buffalo is a wild-card team at the moment but could still win the AFC East if things fall right, and thereby secure a home postseason game.
In fact, the Bills still have a slim shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Caesars Sports opened the Bills as 3-point home favorites for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX. The spread is moving toward the underdog Eagles, now down to Buffalo -1 as of Wednesday afternoon.
But that’s not indicative of the liability.
“It’s all Bills money. We’re gonna be big Eagles fans,” Mucklow said, noting Philly saw sharp action, but the public is on Buffalo. “Sharp money started Tuesday on Eagles +3 and has continued down to +1.”
Christmas Feast
Granted, on this Christmas Day, four of the six teams involved are out of playoff contention. And the Lions are on the brink of elimination.
But thankfully for bookmakers, disdain can also attract the public betting masses. That’s the case for the Thursday night game between the Broncos and Chiefs.
“The Chiefs are the second-most-hated team in America, behind the Patriots,” Mucklow said. “We’ll get people betting just to oppose the Chiefs and people betting the Broncos because they have to win.”
Indeed, over the past several years, plenty of NFL bettors have grown weary of Kansas City (6-9 SU/5-10 ATS. On Christmas night, those bettors hope to revel more in the Chiefs’ downfall.
Denver (12-3 SU/6-9 ATS) went on an 11-game win streak, which ended in Week 16. However, the Broncos are still in a battle to win their division and the AFC’s No. 1 seed, as well.
Mucklow pointed out that a week ago, the Broncos were -5.5 vs. the Chiefs on the look-ahead line, entirely because K.C. is without Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL). Now, with backup Gardner Minshew out due to a knee injury, as well, the spread has more than doubled.
Just since Sunday night, the Broncos have gone from -10.5 to -13.5, where the spread rests Wednesday afternoon. Bettors are backing the big road favorite.
“Denver has a lot to play for, including the No. 1 seed. And the Chiefs are on their last legs,” Mucklow said.
The Christmas slate opens with the Cowboys (6-8-1 SU/7-8 ATS) vs. the Commanders (4-11 SU/5-10 ATS) at 1 p.m. ET. Caesars opened Dallas as a modest 3.5-point favorite. But with Washington starting third-string QB Josh Johnson, the line gradually expanded and is at Cowboys -8.5 (-105) as of Wednesday afternoon.
“We’ll lose big time on Dallas,” Mucklow said. “This is gonna be the story of the week in the NFL. There are a ton of injuries.”
At 4:30 p.m. ET, it’s Lions (8-7 SU/7-8 ATS) vs. Vikings (7-8 SU and ATS). Detroit opened -5.5 and is already beyond a touchdown favorite at -7.5, with Minnesota set to start third-string rookie QB Max Brosmer.
“That game will have the biggest betting handle of the day,” Mucklow said. “The customers are backing Detroit. We’re gonna need the Vikings to do something. Vikings outright would be nice.
“And we’re really gonna need a low-scoring time. We need an Under, big time.”
With the Vikes’ injury situation, the total is down to 43 (Over -115) from a 45.5 opener. But Mucklow anticipates that the public will be hammering the Over.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay had a winner last week, taking the Titans +3.5 vs. the Chiefs, with Tennessee rolling to a 26-9 upset victory. McKay likes another home underdog this week.
“The second-to-last week of the NFL season is all about scenarios. One big one this week is Cleveland +4.5,” McKay said of Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET Steelers-Browns game. “I bet the Browns +4.5 and +3.5, and I still recommend +3.
“Cleveland at home vs. the Steelers is always the Browns’ Super Bowl. Plus, if Baltimore loses to Green Bay on Saturday night, then this game means nothing to Pittsburgh. And coach Mike Tomlin has said he will rest players to get them ready for the playoffs.”
Prime-Time Payouts?
For all the bets certain to come in on the Christmas games and Eagles-Bills, the Saturday and Sunday prime-time games are shaping up as bigger liabilities at Caesars Sports.
“The one game that’s really gonna concern me is Ravens at Packers,” Mucklow said of an 8 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff. “I figure we’re going to see Packers money.”
That’s even if Jordan Love doesn’t clear concussion protocol and Malik Willis starts for Green Bay (9-5-1 SU/6-9 ATS), which has moved from -2.5 to -3 this week. Baltimore (7-8 SU/6-9 ATS) could be without Lamar Jackson (back), who didn’t practice Wednesday.
“Both these teams have to win. We’re gonna be big Ravens fans,” Mucklow said. “This game and the Bears–49ers will be the big-handle games of the week.
Chicago vs. San Francisco is at 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday. Caesars opened San Francisco (11-4 SU and ATS) as a 2.5-point home favorite and is up to Niners -3 vs. the Bears (11-4 SU/9-5-1 ATS).
“Ideally, we’d want the 49ers to win by one or two here,” Mucklow said. “The Bears are decent losers for us on the moneyline, and the 49ers are a big loser for us on the spread. That’s what’s creating this middle situation.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Let’s take a step back to Monday night and recognize that, particularly during the holidays, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Especially when that bird is a high five-figure payout on a pizza-money bet.
As I noted earlier this week, a DraftKings Sportsbook customer strung together a $10, 15-leg parlay, going against the spread in every game from Saturday-Monday night.
Understanding how difficult it can be to even win a two- or three-leg point-spread parlay, it was downright miraculous that this one got to 14 correct by Sunday night.
All that remained was the 49ers covering as 5.5-point road favorites vs. the Colts. If that happened, the customer’s 10 bucks would explode into $165,057.
But DraftKings also offered a cashout option before kickoff: $72,363.59.
The customer took that option and still made out like gangbusters. Then the bettor put $5,000 of those winnings on 49ers -5.5 (-105), to potentially win another $4,761.90.
That got there, too, in San Fran’s 48-27 victory. So while the bettor didn’t get the big six-figure payday, it’s still a Merry Christmas with a total profit of more than $77,000.
May we all be even a fraction this fortunate for the holidays.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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