There are plenty of interesting storylines in NFL Divisional Round odds. Among those is the rare case of a No. 1 seed, the Broncos, sitting as a home underdog.
But perhaps the bigger story: The Bears’ cardiac comebacks — most recently on Wild Card Weekend vs. the Packers — are strongly resonating with the public betting masses.
In short, Chicago is a popular team.
“The amount of Bears action we’ve seen the past month is unprecedented,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on all four matchups, as we roll out NFL Divisional Round betting nuggets.
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Sweet Home Chicago
Twice in the past four weeks, the Bears mounted big fourth-quarter comebacks to post thrilling wins over the Packers.
In Week 16, Chicago was a 1-point home favorite and erased a 13-3 fourth-quarter deficit to win 22-16 in overtime. Then on Wild Card Weekend, the Bears — as 1.5-point home underdogs — trailed 21-6 in the fourth quarter and pulled off a thrilling 31-27 victory.
In NFL Divisional Round odds, Chicago is again a home underdog, this time getting four points vs. the Rams. That runs counter to the Bears being the No. 2 seed and the Rams being the No. 5 seed, which tells you what the oddsmakers think about this 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday showdown.
However, the public masses disagree.
“L.A. is our No. 1 power-rated team,” Feazel said. “But we’re in kind of a unique spot where we are seeing more Bears money. They bet the Bears last weekend, and there’s just more excitement for the Bears this week.”
Caesars opened the Rams as 3.5-point favorites and has already toggled up to Rams -4 several times this week, even with the Bears getting a fair amount of point-spread play.
But more so, bettors are banking on Chicago to post another outright upset.
“The action right now on the Bears is more on the moneyline. Action is a little more balanced on the spread,” Feazel said. “We’re gonna need the Rams. The Rams are a good [Super Bowl] futures place for us.
“We’d prefer to see the Rams win, and the Bears cowl.”
Chicago enters the sport at 12-6 straight up (SU) and 11-6-1 towards the unfold (ATS). Equally, the Rams are 13-5 SU/11-7 ATS).
Frigid Air
Additionally price noting within the Rams-Bears matchup: bone-numbing climate in Chicago on Sunday evening. Temperatures might be within the low teenagers, maybe even single digits, and with winds of 15-25 MPH, the true really feel might be subzero.
That’s impacting the whole, with early motion bringing the quantity down. Caesars opened at 51 and as of Wednesday was at 48.5.
“There’s much more Below cash up to now this week. It’s gonna be chilly, and the Rams are a West Coast indoor group,” Feazel stated. “However once we get to sport day, you’re all the time gonna see Over motion. Folks need to see excessive scoring and plenty of motion.”
NFL Rocks on FOX
On Saturday evening, the sixth-seeded 49ers and top-seeded Seahawks step into the FOX prime-time highlight, for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff.
These two groups simply met in Week 18, with the NFC’s prime seed on the road. Seattle’s protection stuffed San Francisco in a 13-3 highway win, with the Seahawks a 2.5-point favourite.
This time, the Seahawks are at residence and well-rested coming off a bye, so the unfold is considerably bigger. Caesars opened at Seattle -7, frolicked at -7.5 early within the week and on Wednesday was at Seahawks -7 (-114).
San Fran, coming off a 23-19 highway upset as 5.5-point underdogs vs. the Eagles, is 13-5 SU/12-6 ATS. Seattle is 14-3 SU/12-5 ATS, tying the Jaguars for the NFL’s finest spread-covering report within the common season.
“There was heavy sharp motion towards the 49ers on Wild Card Weekend, taking the Eagles. And that was the fallacious aspect,” Feazel stated. “This time, sharp motion is a little bit bit extra on the 49ers.”
San Fran can also be getting a good quantity of public motion, extra so in Caesars’ Nevada market, which Feazel famous is a haven for 49ers bettors. So the guide is hoping for a Seahawks win by lower than a landing.
“We’re in all probability going to need Seattle to win and San Francisco to cowl,” Feazel stated.
Public Patriots
Because the season progressed, the second-seeded Patriots (15-3 SU/13-5 ATS) flipped from a stay-away group to an auto guess for the general public lots. New England is a money-making 12-3 ATS in its final 15 outings, together with a 16-3 victory as 3.5-point residence favorites vs. the Chargers within the wild-card spherical.
Feazel doesn’t anticipate the general public to again off this week in Sunday’s 3 p.m. ET matchup vs. the fifth-seeded Texans (13-5 SU/12-6 ATS). Houston is driving a 10-game win streak (7-3 ATS), together with a 30-6 wild-card rout as a 3.5-point favourite at Pittsburgh.
“It’s a shorter week for the Texans, since they performed on Monday evening. And Nico Collins is questionable,” Feazel stated, alluding to the Houston wideout being in concussion protocol.
“Motion isn’t as one-sided because the Broncos-Payments sport, however there’s more cash on the Patriots.”
NFL Sharp Aspect
Skilled bettor Randy McKay is on a four-game run within the NFL, together with a win on Texans -3 vs. Steelers within the wild-card spherical. As famous above, Houston posted a 30-6 blowout, with its vaunted protection scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns.
That’s sufficient to maintain McKay on the Texans this week, this time as a highway underdog. He already guess Houston +3.5, and he nonetheless likes the Texans at their midweek odds of +3 (even).
“This protection jogs my memory of the 2001 Baltimore Ravens,” McKay stated. “Hopefully, C.J. Stroud doesn’t mess it up like he did towards the Steelers.”
Stroud misplaced two fumbles and threw an interception vs. Pittsburgh. However the Texans’ D bailed him out time after time. McKay expects Houston’s offense to get extra in on the act this week.
“I imagine the Texans’ offensive line is best and may have success that the Chargers didn’t. And I imagine Houston’s expertise will win out,” he stated.
Prime Canine an Underdog
The Broncos (14-3 SU/7-10 ATS) earned the AFC’s prime seed. But the sixth-seeded Bills (13-5 SU/9-9 ATS) are quick highway favorites in Saturday’s 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
Caesars opened Buffalo as a 1.5-point favourite, and the Payments have been at both -1.5 or -1 up to now. As of Wednesday afternoon, it was Payments -1 (even).
A giant cause Denver is the uncommon residence underdog in NFL Divisional Spherical odds: energy scores.
“The sentiment with the Broncos getting plenty of shut wins, is that their report doesn’t replicate their energy ranking available in the market,” Feazel stated. “The Payments have the highest energy ranking amongst AFC groups.
“So the Broncos probably going off as a ‘canine wouldn’t be shocking.”
The sport remains to be a number of days out, so there’s an opportunity the purpose unfold may flip and Denver may shut as a brief residence favourite. Feazel isn’t relying on that, as a result of the lots are on Josh Allen & Co.
“We’re gonna see sharp motion are available on the Broncos, and the general public on the Payments,” he stated. “I don’t see that altering, particularly on sport day. The Broncos will in all probability be our greatest want of the weekend.”
I Like Huge Bets and I Can’t Lie
Via 12 weeks of the common season, the Bears have been a shocking 8-3 SU. However oddsmakers nonetheless weren’t bought on coach Ben Johnson’s speedy reversal of Chicago’s fortunes.
Forward of the Bears’ Week 13 Black Friday sport at Philadelphia, BetMGM nonetheless had Chicago at +6600 to win the Tremendous Bowl.
A high-roller then took a shot, placing $50,000 on the Bears. Chicago adopted with a 24-15 win over Philly. And with that, the Bears lastly shed their long-shot standing.
As famous above, Chicago is a house ‘canine vs. Los Angeles on Sunday evening. If Chicago wins and Seattle wins, the Bears will certainly be sizable highway underdogs within the NFC Championship Recreation.
And the Bears will nearly assuredly be Tremendous Bowl underdogs, in the event that they get that far.
But when Chicago runs the desk, then that bettor hauls in a hefty $3.3 million.
That’s the most important potential payout on any Tremendous Bowl guess up to now.
Right here’s hoping it survives the weekend!
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He’s a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Observe him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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