Normally, when a lot of NFL favorites win on Sunday, bookmakers get taken to the cleaners.
Yet on Sunday, when favorites won 11 of 12 games, that wasn’t the case.
It’s not that sportsbooks won the battle of NFL Week 6 odds, but they didn’t lose nearly as much as normal under such circumstances.
“It’s nice to have almost all the favorites win and us not get killed,” said Casey Degnon, risk manager at The SuperBook. “It was a small losing day for the book, overall.”
More on the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL and college football betting.
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Sunday Night Showdown
The NFL saved the best for last on Sunday, with the Detroit Lions visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in prime time. Detroit entered the game at 4-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), while K.C. was 2-3 SU and ATS, trying to dodge a 2-4 start.
Further, Detroit has been a spread-covering machine since the middle of the 2022-23 season, going 39-13-1 ATS and an even better 41-12 SU.
But the Chiefs were up to the chore, posting a 30-17 victory as 2.5-point home favorites. That was a mixed-bag result for The SuperBook.
“The Chiefs covering and the Under was a very small loser for us,” Degnon said, alluding to the two teams falling well short of the 51.5 total. “But the Chiefs, by double digits, at least killed the Lions teasers for us.”
For those unfamiliar, teasers are somewhat like parlays, except the bettor either subtracts points from the favorite’s point spread or adds points to an underdog’s point spread.
Six-point teasers are typical, and any that were live to the Lions on Sunday night would’ve had Detroit +8.5, rather than +2.5. So K.C. winning by more than 8.5 fell in The SuperBook’s favor.
Nationally, BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini was rooting for a much closer result.
“We’re hoping for a Chiefs win by one or two,” Cipollini said pregame, wanting a K.C. win but a Detroit cover.
That’s because most BetMGM customers were either wagering on Chiefs -2.5 or Lions moneyline. A 1- or 2-point K.C. win would’ve meant the sportsbook scooped up all the Chiefs spread bets plus all the Lions moneyline wagers.
London Calling
Bookmakers had no complaints about Sunday’s opening game, the Denver Broncos vs. the New York Jets in London. The Broncos were 7-point favorites and did just about everything they could to lose to the winless Jets.
Denver escaped with a very ugly 13-11 victory. So the underdog covered and the Under easily hit on a total of 43.5. The cliché states that parlays are a bookmaker’s best friend. Not far behind is the ‘dog and Under.
“This started the day with a win for the book, given that it was the Jets hanging on [to cover] in a low-scoring sport,” Caesars Sports activities head of soccer buying and selling Joey Feazel mentioned.
However very like at The SuperBook, Caesars had a back-and-forth duel with bettors for the remainder of the day, profitable some and shedding some. The day went a bit higher for South Level sportsbook director Chris Andrews.
“We began off good with the Broncos-Jets. The Cardinals protecting in opposition to the Colts was good, and the Rams protecting was good. Everyone guess on the Ravens late,” Andrews mentioned of L.A.’s 17-3 victory as 7-point street favorites.
“However everyone guess Carolina over the Cowboys, and so they took the factors with the Dolphins. So these weren’t good.”
The Panthers have been 3-point dwelling underdogs and beat Dallas 30-27. Miami rallied from a 26-13 deficit to take a 27-26 lead within the last minute in opposition to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Dolphins proceeded to lose 29-27 on a final-second discipline purpose however coated as 3.5-point dwelling underdogs.
Large-Sport Bucs
If you happen to’d requested six weeks in the past which staff would have the NFL’s finest document by mid-October, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wouldn’t have been your first guess.
However right here, Tampa is at 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS, tied with one other shock staff within the Colts, additionally 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. Semi-on matter: The Buffalo Bills (4-1 SU/2-3 ATS) can get to 5-1 SU on Monday night time in Atlanta.
Baker Mayfield & Co. hosted the San Francisco 49ers in one of many higher Sunday matchups. The Bucs have been 3.5-point dwelling favorites and received 30-19. Sharp bettors don’t at all times get it proper, however they did on this case, betting on Tampa at -2.5 and -3 earlier within the week.
“Lots of sharp guys [were] on Tampa,” SuperBook vice chairman John Murray mentioned.
Too A lot To Swallow
A lot as the general public likes to guess on favorites, there’s a breaking level. The Green Bay Packers laying 14 factors, even on their dwelling discipline, was simply an excessive amount of to ask.
However a Cincinnati Bengals staff getting these 14 factors? Maybe revitalized a bit after buying Joe Flacco to take over as quarterback? Positive, why not.
BetMGM and The SuperBook each reported stronger-than-expected motion on Bengals +14.
“We have now seen that. It’s stunning to me,” Murray mentioned. “However the public doesn’t wish to lay 14 factors.”
And the general public was proper to as an alternative take 14 factors. Inexperienced Bay was by no means protecting, although it did lead 24-10 halfway by the fourth quarter. However that’s a push.
Flacco led the Bengals to a landing with 4:11 remaining to make it 24-18, maybe giving the Packers a bit concern. Inexperienced Bay in the end received 27-18, and the Bengals coated the unfold.
On Campus
When underdogs publish outright wins in high-profile video games, oddsmakers are typically comfortable. Such was the case with Indiana’s 30-20 street upset of Oregon on Saturday.
“It was an awesome week for the e book. Indiana beating Oregon outright was one in all our greatest outcomes of the yr,” BetMGM buying and selling supervisor Seamus Magee mentioned.
Sharp bettors have been on the seventh-ranked Hoosiers, who opened as excessive as 9.5-point underdogs however closed +7. The general public betting lots have been on the No. 3 Geese, together with in moneyline parlays.
So Indiana outright broke up a boatload of mentioned parlay tickets.
A pair extra upsets helped gasoline a profitable Saturday for BetMGM.
“Pitt outright over Florida State and UCLA beating Michigan State have been different nice video games,” Magee mentioned.
The Seminoles have been 10.5-point dwelling favorites however tumbled to the Panthers 34-31. The Bruins have been 7-point street underdogs and blew out the Spartans 38-13.
It was the second straight upset for UCLA, which in Week 6 was an enormous 24.5-point dwelling underdog and shocked Penn State 42-37.
These upsets all came about within the midday ET or 3:30 p.m. ET window of video games. So, too, did Penn State’s second straight beautiful setback, a 22-21 dwelling loss as 21-point favorites vs. Northwestern.
“Lots of parlays died earlier than the night time slate even bought going,” Magee mentioned.
And on Sunday, one job was misplaced, as nicely.
Penn State fired coach James Franklin, following two embarrassing losses as a part of a three-game skid general. FWIW: The Nittany Lions (3-3 SU) are the one faculty staff that’s winless in opposition to the unfold this season, at 0-6.
Alabama–Missouri was one other standard sport, with the Crimson Tide closing as 3.5-point street favorites. In the course of the week, the purpose unfold toggled between Bama -3.5/-3. When that occurs, it’s usually dangerous for the bookmakers when the favourite wins by precisely 3, which Alabama did, 27-24.
However BetMGM once more got here out in entrance.
“Alabama touchdown on 3 ended up OK for us. There was numerous curiosity in ‘Bama -3.5,” Magee mentioned.
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He’s a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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