We all know the turnover is coming, we simply don’t know the place.
Clichés develop into clichés for a cause, and the NFL playoff discipline proves it each January. The previous adage was that half the sphere flips over yearly, lending credence to the concept that each group has hope heading into the season.
The numbers don’t fairly bear that out for the reason that league switched to a 14-team postseason in 2020. In these 5 years, the turnover is barely extra modest, with the common discipline sitting at 5 new groups yearly. As many as seven groups have managed the feat in 2022, however the quantity dipped to 4 in 2024.
Nonetheless, the purpose stands:tha As assured as we’d really feel concerning the league’s elite in June, there will likely be shakeups within the pecking order.
Who’s probably to interrupt by means of? Of the 18 groups that didn’t make final 12 months’s playoffs, there are many selections. Gifted groups that got here oh-so shut, or possibly enjoyable younger newcomers.
Let’s type it out, so as of chance (together with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook).
Double whammy for the Giants: a roster that wants work and a schedule that appears unforgiving. New York performs 10 video games in opposition to 2024 playoff groups this season, with six of these coming within the first eight weeks. Enjoying the AFC West and NFC North on high of six division video games is totally brutal. And if that wasn’t unhealthy sufficient, two of the video games it drew as a “reward” for ending fourth are in opposition to San Francisco and Las Vegas. Not precisely the cellar dwellers you’d count on.
It is a robust break, as a result of I actually don’t assume the roster is that unhealthy. If the Giants had a neater street in entrance of them, I’d be tempted to assume Russell Wilson, Malik Nabers and this fierce cross rush may get them to 9 wins. However in opposition to this slate, I don’t know. It’s robust to see.
Playoff odds: +650
I’m conflicted with the Browns, as a result of it’s not as if that is an terrible roster. Led by Myles Garrett, the Cleveland protection that was such a pressure in 2023 is essentially intact. The offensive line may nonetheless be a energy, supplied these guys can keep wholesome. David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy are good gamers, and the Browns simply drafted a pair of enjoyable, younger working backs. Hell, we even know that Joe Flacco is able to piloting this group to the playoffs. So, why’s everybody so down on the Browns? Primarily simply taking part in the percentages.
What are the possibilities that the mandatory veterans keep wholesome? What are the possibilities that Flacco can ship 12 or 13 high quality begins, as an alternative of 5 – 6? What are the possibilities that Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel is able to capably begin if want be? And even when all of that works out, what are the possibilities they’ll eke out a playoff spot within the AFC North? They don’t appear good from right here.
Playoff odds: +800
I actually like the place the Jets stand within the large image. This seems to be like a group that’s able to make affected person choices after the impulsiveness of the Aaron Rodgers period. The offensive line seems to be like it is going to be a energy of the group after back-to-back sort out picks within the first spherical of the draft. The protection continues to be affected by younger expertise for Aaron Glenn to work with in his first 12 months as head coach.
The primary drawback is simply that I don’t assume there’s sufficient juice but on offense, headlined by the truth that we don’t know if Justin Fields can lastly develop into a franchise man or if he’s only a placeholder. I believe the Jets’ collective arrow is pointing up proper now. I simply don’t assume I see this as something greater than a developmental 12 months for Glenn and his core gamers.
Playoff odds: +475
Third time’s the appeal? New Jets QB Justin Fields is getting one other shot as a starter after a quick stint with the Steelers and unsuccessful tenure with the Bears.
Some groups on this record have been punished by the robust draw of the schedule. The Saints received pushed up a bit for the other cause. I believe the NFC South is a bit higher than it will get credit score for, but it surely’s nonetheless one of many divisions that would make a shock playoff run extra manageable for its groups. New Orleans opens its season with a tricky run of Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle and Buffalo in September. However after that stretch, the Saints play solely three video games in opposition to 2024 playoff groups. It’s a good schedule for a roster that isn’t as unhealthy as folks make it out to be.
The one large caveat, clearly, is that this all will depend on an unproven quarterback profiting from his alternative. Whether or not it’s Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener, it’s plain that the Saints are going to be beginning the least skilled quarterback within the NFL this season. On the brilliant facet, the supporting forged is strong, and the schedule isn’t as scary because it might be. I don’t assume that’s fairly adequate, but it surely’s not less than one thing to consider.
Playoff odds: +600
There’s a world the place all of it comes collectively for the Pats in a single 12 months. It’s really easy to think about a situation the place we get to November and these younger upstarts are sitting on a 7-2 document. Will Campbell is a Day 1 star at left sort out; Morgan Moses has stayed wholesome at proper sort out. TreVeyon Henderson is on tempo for a 1,000-yard rookie season. Robert Spillane and Carlton Davis are taking part in like Professional Bowlers of their first fall with the group. Mike Vrabel is discovering an edge on the margins and outmaneuvering opposing coaches.
And with all that added assist, Drake Maye seems to be just like the franchise quarterback all of us hope he might be. It’s all attainable, however in my expertise, issues hardly ever work out that fantastically unexpectedly. Particularly not in a division that includes a real Tremendous Bowl favourite within the Buffalo Bills. I believe this will likely be a vastly improved group in 2025 — and a extremely enjoyable one. If I needed to wager, I believe 2026 is extra seemingly for a playoff breakout. However you simply by no means know. Perhaps that is a type of uncommon events the place all of it clicks directly.
Playoff odds: +120
Mike Vrabel has helped deliver a renewed sense of hope for the Patriots following two straight 4-13 seasons. (Photograph by Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe by way of Getty Photos)
Full disclosure: I’m a type of Geno Smith stans. I believe he is quarterback who’s value constructing round for not less than a number of extra years. He had a profitable document all three years he began in Seattle, and now he’s getting into an offense that already has a number of high quality items in Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty and Jakobi Meyers. I’d have the Raiders a lot increased on this record in the event that they didn’t play in such a loaded division.
It’s exhausting to think about the division title is up for grabs, for the reason that Kansas City Chiefs haven’t let it slip in almost a literal decade. And we all know the wild-card competitors ought to be fierce, for the reason that Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos have been adequate to snag playoff spots final 12 months. Crazier issues have occurred, although. This isn’t a group you have to be overlooking.
Playoff odds: +330
One other group that can see its ceiling closely impacted by its investments at quarterback. The Colts quietly have a pleasant roster. I really like the additions they made within the secondary and the offensive talent positions are deep. The offensive line considerations me a bit, but it surely’s not a deal-breaker. Very like the Jaguars and Titans, the Colts should view taking the AFC South from the Houston Texans as a sensible risk. After all, realism may seem like pure fantasy by November, if Indianapolis doesn’t discover some dependable quarterback play.
Anthony Richardson is coming into a make-or-break 12 months 3 after a tough 2024. Ought to he break, Daniel Jones is raring to show he might be the following large quarterback reclamation venture, à la Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold. If both a type of guys performs like a franchise quarterback, it’s simple to promote the Colts as a playoff group. In any other case, it is going to be a turbulent 2025 for Indy.
Playoff odds: +200
Now we have a precedent for the way the Titans may rapidly flip issues round, as a result of we’ve seen it in every of the previous two years. C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels have supplied the blueprint for the way the best rookie quarterback can lead a playoff cost. It’s a tricky customary to carry Cam Ward to, however we all know that it’s attainable. The Titans have finished an admirable job constructing a succesful offense round him. The offensive line ought to be much better than your common No. 1 total choose is working with. The protection was not the difficulty in Nashville final 12 months.
As I’ve already stated, the AFC South isn’t fairly the gauntlet as a number of the different divisions Ward may have landed in. It may not occur, however a playoff spot is value daydreaming about — if Ward performs as much as his draft slot.
Playoff odds: +370
Titans rookie Cam Ward drops again to cross throughout OTAs at Ascension Saint Thomas Sports activities Park on June 03, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photograph by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Photos)
There’s a robust case to be made for the Panthers as a big-time sleeper group this fall. Bryce Young was so enjoyable throughout his second-half surge final 12 months. Carolina’s offensive line is sweet. Its talent teams have some added juice, highlighted by first-round choose Tetairoa McMillan. Its protection, which was one of the vital untalented teams within the league final season, spent a small fortune on upgrades. The Panthers play within the manageable NFC South, they usually don’t play a recreation in opposition to a 2024 playoff group till Halloween. It’s all there for them to show some heads.
Playoff odds: +250
The Bears are an thrilling, fascinating group, so it feels harsh to put them to this point down this record. My concern will not be with Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson or any of the fantastic additions which have been made this offseason. The issue is principally that reaching the playoffs seems to be like one hell of a Mt. Everest-sized job in 2025. For starters, we all know the Bears play within the NFC North — the division that produced three 11-win groups final 12 months. Bumping up in opposition to the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers six instances guarantees to be a slog.
If that wasn’t sufficient, the Bears will even be seeing the likes of Philadelphia, Washington, Dallas, Baltimore, Cincinnati and San Francisco. This can be a meat grinder of a schedule. So, whereas I’m a Williams believer, and I’m excited to look at him play for Johnson this season, I’m not able to dive into the deep finish simply but.
Playoff odds: +160
Ben Johnson will look to get the most effective out of Caleb Williams in 12 months 1 with the Bears.
There positive was a number of turnover in Seattle this offseason. Clearly, Sam Darnold is the massive new title. Is drafting Grey Zabel within the first spherical sufficient to stabilize the offensive line? Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a star within the making, however do Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have sufficient fuel within the tank to offset the lack of DK Metcalf? Can newly-signed DeMarcus Lawrence keep wholesome sufficient to raise the Seahawks’ cross rush? Seattle has sneaky large potential if the reply to those questions is “sure,” however I’m skeptical.
Playoff odds: +150
Most all the things I stated concerning the Seahawks applies to the Cardinals, solely there’s much more continuity in Arizona. I’m such a giant fan of what normal supervisor Monti Ossenfort and head coach Jonathan Gannon are constructing within the desert, I wish to consider. Final 12 months, it was the offense that received the offseason makeover; this 12 months, it’s the protection.
This isn’t essentially the most star-studded roster within the NFC, but when these defensive upgrades pan out, the Cardinals ought to be a well-rounded group. The one drawback with my plan is that the Playing cards play within the NFC West, which seems to be loaded once more. They’ll seemingly have to be higher than 3-3 in division play in the event that they wish to make some noise.
Playoff odds: +130
Large receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. catches a landing cross ultimately zone throughout an NFL soccer recreation between the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on January 5, 2025 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photograph by Bruce Yeung/Getty Photos)
Miami and the following group on this record remind me of one another in that they’re each getting neglected a bit greater than their expertise degree suggests. Sure, the Dolphins have flaws, and I’d not choose them to win the Tremendous Bowl. However we additionally know that they are often within the playoff combine when Tua Tagovailoa is wholesome. That is to not say Miami will steal the AFC East from the Payments. But when Tua’s wholesome and the offense is firing on all cylinders, that might be adequate for a 9-8 or 10-7 wild-card berth.
Playoff odds: +155
Dallas could be increased on the record if it performed in one other division. This can be a proficient roster, and the Cowboys are at all times within the playoff combine when Dak Prescott is wholesome. It’s only a robust, robust street. The reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles look as robust as ever, and the Washington Commanders are in search of to construct on a 12-5 season. If that wasn’t sufficient, there are video games in opposition to the Chiefs, Lions and Packers to fret about. Prescott, Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb can have the Cowboys within the combine, however securing a playoff spot within the hardest NFC East we’ve seen in years will likely be a problem.
Playoff odds: +190
Everybody’s going to spend the spring and summer season hyping up the Falcons. Will they lastly ship on it, or will they hand the division to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but once more? The reply utterly will depend on Michael Penix Jr. If he’s able to be a franchise quarterback, Atlanta simply may win the NFC South for the primary time since 2016. The offense has all the things it may presumably want. The protection spent big-time assets on its cross rush throughout the draft. The Falcons solely play two video games in opposition to 2024 playoff groups after Week 6.
If Penix is sweet, this group has critical potential to interrupt out for 12-plus wins. If he’s merely high quality, or if he is shaky, it might be one other irritating season watching the fellows down south hold one other banner.
Playoff odds: +155
Similar story because the Falcons, totally different metropolis. Considered one of today, I’m going to cease believing within the Jags — however not right this moment. It’s simply such a tempting mixture. I firmly consider Trevor Lawrence is an efficient quarterback when he’s wholesome, and each his offensive line and his receiving corps ought to be improved in 2025. The protection made a number of strong additions. Simply as necessary: The trail to the postseason continues to be unfairly forgiving, because the AFC South stays one of many least intimidating divisions within the league.
The Jaguars do should play the AFC West and NFC West, which will likely be robust. However, with all due respect to Houston, this is among the best division schedules you’re going to search out. Stealing the division from the Texans is an attainable purpose, even when I don’t totally belief Jacksonville to do it.
Playoff odds: +155
Truthfully, the Bengals haven’t given me a ton of causes to assume they’ve fastened final 12 months’s defensive points. Trey Hendrickson stays in a contract stalemate with the group, and first-round choose Shemar Stewart is staging a rarely-seen rookie holdout. These are scary issues when it’s important to play six video games in opposition to the AFC North, in addition to matchups with Buffalo, Detroit and Inexperienced Bay, amongst others.
All of that stated, I’m not keen to wager in opposition to Joe Burrow and this Cincy offense. They could must common 34 factors per recreation to achieve the playoffs, however the loopy factor is that they’re able to that. It’s going to be demanding, as a result of it’s at all times demanding with the Bengals, however I nonetheless assume they’re able to 10 wins and making the playoffs.
Playoff odds: -160
I believe we’re all writing the 49ers off a bit early. There’s been some attrition within the Bay Space, and that is not the Infinity Gauntlet roster from 2022. It’s nonetheless a top quality roster, as long as the veterans can keep wholesome. That could be a gamble, to be honest, but it surely’s one I’m keen to make. It feels rather less dangerous whenever you have a look at San Francisco’s schedule.
By advantage of ending fourth within the NFC West final 12 months, the Niners are going through about as forgiving a slate as you possibly can hope to see. They solely play 4 video games in opposition to 2024 playoff groups — two video games in opposition to the division rival Rams, together with street journeys to Tampa Bay and Houston. Additionally they play a whopping seven video games in opposition to groups that drafted within the high 10 this spring. There aren’t any ensures, however I believe a bounce again is coming.
Playoff odds: -200
David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports activities and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He beforehand spent 9 seasons masking the Cowboys for the group’s official web site. In 2018, he gained a regional Emmy for his function in producing “Dak Prescott: A Household Reunion” concerning the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Comply with him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.
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