NCAA Tournament bubble watch: OSU-Indiana looms large, UNC faces win-and-in game

Simply 10 days separate us from studying the 68-team discipline within the NCAA Event. Bracket season is upon us and the insanity is nicely underway, with a number of bubble outcomes already going down this week and a mammoth slate of video games on the docket this weekend. The headliner is the North Carolina Tar Heels, who’ve a win-and-in sport towards No. 2 Duke on Saturday on the Dean Dome.

Coach Hubert Davis is making an attempt to keep away from a second missed journey to the Huge Dance prior to now three years. While his job is safe after it was reported that he signed a two-year contract extension in December 2024 to take him through 2030, the concept of being on the unsuitable aspect of the bubble once more this yr would imply that he should win within the 2025-26 marketing campaign. That stated, alternative knocks Saturday when a Duke workforce that has misplaced simply as soon as since Nov. 6 involves Chapel Hill. 

This looks like an actual uphill battle for UNC, however not many groups get the posh of a win-and-in sport this time of yr — and there’s no query {that a} victory over a Duke squad that sits at No. 1 in NET, KenPom and Torvik would clinch a spot for the Tar Heels. Their résumé? There’s not sufficient high quality to it, with UNC having a 1-10 report towards Quadrant 1 groups and that one high quality win (a impartial web site victory over UCLA) getting negated by a Quad 3 dwelling loss to Stanford. UNC’s NET is 38, a strong rating in comparison with others on the bubble and one that’s higher than Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Xavier. UNC’s “wins above bubble” sits at forty fourth within the nation (+1.0), whereas the KPI, which ranks each workforce’s wins and losses on a positive-to-negative scale, locations it outdoors the highest 50. 

The purpose? The Tar Heels shall be sweating closely on Choice Sunday in the event that they lose to Duke and don’t steal a bid within the ACC Event. What’s going to the keys be for UNC to have a shot? The Tar Heels must defend higher, and so they’ve bought to decide about defending Cooper Flagg — make him only a scorer or only a facilitator, as a result of if he’s doing each nicely, they’re in for an extended evening. RJ Davis has to play like a first-team All-American, whereas Ian Jackson and Seth Trimble should ship after they liberate with perimeter appears. 

There’s an enormous bubble bowl in Bloomington, Indiana, on Saturday when Indiana hosts Ohio State. The Hoosiers, who fell at Oregon earlier this week, appear to be in a strong spot to get a bid to the NCAA Event and might all however formally lock up a spot with a win over the Buckeyes. Indiana has 4 Quad 1 wins and nil defeats outdoors Q1. That’s usually fairly precious to the choice committee, as is the truth that Indiana solely performed 4 Quad 4 video games. One of many Hoosiers’ 4 Quad 1 wins got here at Ohio State again on Jan. 17 when Luke Goode hit a clutch 3 and Anthony Leal put up a game-sealing block within the remaining seconds to seal a victory. Indiana is coming off a 73-64 defeat at Oregon wherein Myles Rice and Mackenzie Mgbako have been held to a mixed 3-for-17 taking pictures from the sector, however the Hoosiers are 13-4 at dwelling versus 5-8 away from Meeting Corridor. Profitable Saturday would assist guarantee Indiana isn’t sweating on Choice Sunday, however Ohio State has momentum coming into Bloomington after a 116-114 double-overtime victory over fellow bubble workforce Nebraska. Bruce Thornton led the Buckeyes with 29 factors and 9 assists.

I agree with FOX Sports activities college basketball bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy that the Buckeyes ought to be within the 68-team discipline due to a win on a impartial ground over Kentucky coupled with a victory at Purdue. Ohio State has six Quad 1 wins, and whereas a 3-3 Quad 2 report isn’t nice, this workforce would not personal a backbreaking defeat and their résumé is fairly strong throughout. The distinction between the Buckeyes and one other bubble workforce like Nebraska is the actual fact the Huskers personal two Quad 3 losses. The Huskers host Iowa on Sunday in a must-win sport. 

Let’s assess different bubble winners and losers! 

The Razorbacks regarded defeated on Saturday in a loss to South Carolina, however John Calipari’s workforce bounced again with a 90-77 victory at Vanderbilt. Johnell Davis had 21 factors within the victory, displaying why he was such an excellent portal pickup for Calipari. A house date with a Mississippi State workforce that’s top-35 within the NET is one other robust likelihood for Arkansas to make a case. If the Razorbacks win Saturday and aren’t the auto-bid from the SEC Event, I may see them in Dayton as one of many first 4 groups in. TV networks will surely like that. 

Oklahoma (Bubble winner) 

When you’re firmly on the bubble at this level and want to maneuver the needle with a win, it’s a must to seize it. The Sooners did simply that, taking pictures 57% from the ground in a dominant win over a Missouri workforce that stands at 15 in NET. Jeremiah Fears appears each bit the a part of a first-round NBA Draft decide, scoring 31 factors on 9-of-13 taking pictures from the ground whereas delivering 5 assists. He has sensational upside, however for now, he’s holding Oklahoma alive for a bid.

The Bearcats’ offense simply hasn’t been adequate. They went 2-of-18 from 3 in a loss to Kansas State and haven’t got a real alpha scorer. With only one Quad 1 win and a mixed 11-13 report versus the opposite three quadrants mixed, I don’t suppose there’s sufficient meat on the bone. I’d say Cincinnati is out.

Xavier (Bubble winner)

The Musketeers have received 11 of their previous 14 contests, and so they routed Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse, 91-78, in what was perceived as a possible lure sport. Coach Sean Miller instructed me that Zach Freemantle’s stage of play and his angle is one which matches the professionals and that he realizes that is it for him in school basketball as a senior. We’re watching that play out, with Freemantle and Ryan Conwell actually turning it up every day. 

Tensions rose down the stretch in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday evening. Coach Ed Cooley wished to quadruple his Big East win rely, whereas Kyle Neptune was making an attempt to avoid wasting his job. But, the Cats have misplaced two video games to Georgetown by a grand complete of three factors. With two Quad 3 losses and one other in Quad 4, the Cats simply have too many blemishes to beat. 

What a remaining week and a half on deck in school basketball. For some, bubbles shall be popped. For others, they received’t have to fret a few factor on Choice Sunday. Then there’s these middling bubble groups which are looking for a approach in. There shall be no scarcity of these groups within the combine right here down the stretch. Let’s see what occurs. It’s essentially the most fantastic time of the yr for a cause!

John Fanta is a nationwide school basketball broadcaster and author for FOX Sports activities. He covers the game in a wide range of capacities, from calling video games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Community to offering commentary on The Subject of 68 Media Community. Observe him at @John_Fanta.

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