Welcome to March Madness — a nickname earned through decades of chaos, where little-known programs take down the sport’s biggest brands. We call those bracket-busting teams “Cinderellas.”
They’re fun to root for, but picking the right ones? That’s where things get tricky.
Even with a job that revolves around studying these teams, predicting what happens in a single-elimination tournament is never easy. So while I can’t promise perfection, I can give you a head start.
2026 NCAA TOURNAMENT GAMBLING GUIDE
Here are five Cinderella candidates I believe have the best chance to win a game — or maybe even make a run in this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
How are we defining a Cinderella Team? A team seeded No. 9 or lower that also comes from outside the five power conferences: ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East.
[MEN’S BRACKET: NCAA Tournament Bracket]
5. Santa Clara, WCC, 26-8 (15-13)
The Broncos proved how harmful they are often with a win over a powerful Saint Mary’s workforce within the WCC semifinals. Head coach Herb Sendek has been across the block and is aware of what it takes to win in March — and he’s acquired the expertise to do it.
Santa Clara leans closely on the 3-point shot, with almost 45% of its makes an attempt coming from past the arc. When these pictures don’t fall, they crash the glass exhausting, rating among the many high 25 groups within the nation in offensive rebounding proportion.
Participant to observe: Sophomore guard Christian Hammond averages 16 factors per recreation, shoots 40% from deep, and poured in 24 factors in opposition to Gonzaga within the WCC title recreation.
4. Utah State, Mountain West, 28-6 (15-5)
Head coach Jerrod Calhoun (no relation to UConn legend Jim Calhoun) is in his second season in Logan, and this group has taken a transparent step ahead from final yr’s workforce that fell to UCLA within the first spherical as a 10-seed.
The Aggies are disruptive on protection, rating sixteenth nationally in pressured turnovers, however their actual power is on the offensive finish, the place they sit inside the highest 30 in effectivity, in accordance with KenPom.
Participant(s) to observe: Mason Falslev and MJ Collins, who mix to common 34 factors per recreation.
3. Saint Louis, A-10, 28-5 (15-3)
On Feb. 13, the Billikens had been 24-1 and ranked within the high 25. They’ve gone simply 4-4 since and now discover themselves in Cinderella territory.
St. Louis performs quick, shoots a blistering 40.5% from 3-point vary, and options unbelievable stability, with seven gamers averaging 9 factors or extra.
The Billikens’ résumé is legit too, with wins over Santa Clara and a regular-season sweep of VCU. The query now’s, can they take down one of many heavyweights?
Participant to observe: The headliner is Robbie Avila, a 6-foot-10, goggle-wearing heart who leads the workforce in each factors and assists and goes by the nickname “Cream Abdul Jabar.” He may not have the signature hook shot, however he’s knocked down 62 3-pointers this season.
2. South Florida, American, 25-8 (15-3)
Led by first-year head coach Bryan Hodgson, the Bulls enter the NCAA Event on an 11-game successful streak with a 25–8 file. They’ve constructed their id on protection, rating fortieth nationally in effectivity in accordance with KenPom. Offensively, they push the tempo and relentlessly assault the offensive glass.
Participant(s) to Watch: Wes Enis has emerged as a go-to scorer, placing up 19 or extra factors in seven of the workforce’s remaining eight video games. However the coronary heart and soul of this group is 6-foot-10 senior Izaiyah Nelson, the American Athletic Convention Participant of the Yr, who almost averages a double-double (15.7 factors, 9.6 rebounds).
He has all of the makings of an NCAA Event darling.
[MEN’S BRACKET: Expert Predictions and Analysis]
1. Akron, MAC, 29-5 (17-1)
The Zips are 0-7 all-time within the NCAA Event, however I’ve acquired them successful a few video games. It’s exhausting to not love their offensive firepower, particularly with a 10-game successful streak heading into March.
Their path hasn’t been good — they break up with Miami (OH), dropping a three-point recreation on the highway — however they bounced again to win the MAC Event, they usually’re enjoying their finest basketball on the proper time.
Akron is elite offensively, rating within the high 15 nationally in each 3-point proportion (38.5%) and 2-point proportion (59.1%). They’ll want each little bit of that effectivity in opposition to Texas Tech.
Participant(s) to observe: The backcourt duo of Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott has mixed for 146 made threes this season.
At this level, the formulation is straightforward: let it rip.
