The New England Patriots enter Week 12 within the driver’s seat to win the AFC East. They’ve a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills, have already gained the primary head-to-head assembly and solely play one sport the remainder of the best way towards a group that at present a profitable file — Buffalo.
The most important story involving the Patriots this season is the emergence of second-year quarterback Drake Maye and his rise to stardom. He has modified every thing for the franchise and, on the floor, has made them a viable Tremendous Bowl contender in a wide-open AFC.
Are the Patriots “idiot’s gold”?
Former Patriots quarterback and one-time NFL MVP Got here Newton referred to New England as “fool’s gold.” Why? The group’s schedule.
The subplot to the Patriots’ success is the aforementioned schedule itself. Particularly, how mushy it has been. The Patriots enter Week 12 having performed what’s mathematically the NFL’s second-softest schedule, with solely the Chicago Bears (.348) having a decrease energy of schedule quantity than the Patriots (.363).
Together with that, the Patriots’ energy of victory (.355) is the second-lowest amongst groups at present in a playoff place, forward of solely the Bears (.285).
If there’s a pink flag with groups just like the Patriots and Bears, it’s the easy truth they’ve each performed extraordinarily favorable schedules up to now and haven’t but been totally examined. However does this imply something in the case of potential playoff success?
It’d.
NFL groups with low energy of victory numbers are likely to battle in playoffs
There are not any straightforward video games within the NFL. This isn’t faculty soccer the place Alabama can simply schedule a directional college from Missouri and pay them cash to indicate up for a 60-point win. Everyone is sweet. Everyone is able to beating all people else on any given week. However there are video games which might be considerably more durable than others. To this point this season, the Patriots and Bears not likely performed any of these.
New England, for instance, has performed simply 4 groups that at present have a profitable file. It’s 3-1 in these video games, having overwhelmed Buffalo, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers, whereas additionally dropping to Pittsburgh.
The Bears, in the meantime, have performed only one sport towards a group with a profitable file (the Detroit Lions) and misplaced by 31 factors. The Bears even have a 14-point loss to a .500 Baltimore Ravens group.
However what precisely does this imply for the playoffs?
Properly, should you return over the previous 10 seasons, there have been 23 groups that entered the playoffs with a energy of victory variety of .400 or decrease.
(Power of victory and schedule numbers via ESPN’s playoff standings page.)
Solely 9 of these 23 groups gained a playoff sport.
Solely three of them (the 2024 Washington Commanders, 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars) gained a couple of playoff sport.
Mixed, these groups went simply 14-21 general of their respective playoff video games. That’s solely a .400 profitable proportion. Not precisely a variety of success as soon as they began enjoying more durable groups.
Just one group that has appeared in a Tremendous Bowl over the previous 10 years has accomplished so with a energy of victory quantity decrease than .400 (the 2020 Buccaneers), whereas no Tremendous Bowl group over that stretch has had a decrease energy of schedule quantity than .439.
On the finish of the day groups can solely play who the NFL tells them to play. Good groups additionally ought to beat up on lesser groups. No person ought to apologize for profitable within the NFL. However there can nonetheless be some questions as to how good sure groups truly are.
The Patriots have video games with Buffalo and Baltimore remaining that can be their hardest exams.
The Bears play a frightening schedule the remainder of the best way with Pittsburgh, Detroit, the Philadelphia Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers (twice).
How these groups do in these video games will inform us loads about their playoff probabilities.
