College Football Playoff Predictions: Oregon, Ole Miss Will Cruise Past First Round

Week after week of predictions and prognostications have finally given way to the College Football Playoff. Beginning Friday night, when No. 9 Alabama takes on No. 8 Oklahoma, this year’s bracket will narrow the field in search of the 2025 national champion.

On paper, two of the opening-round games look like absolute thrillers: the aforementioned rematch between the Crimson Tide and the Sooners and the fascinating showdown between No. 10 Miami (Fla.), which leapfrogged Notre Dame in the final CFP rankings, and No. 7 Texas A&M. Each of these teams have enough talent to win the whole thing if they can get past this weekend. 

The other two games seem fairly straightforward, with No. 6 Ole Miss hosting No. 11 Tulane in a replay of a lopsided regular season contest, and No. 12 James Madison flying across the country to tangle with No. 5 Oregon. Both the Rebels and Ducks are sizable favorites in their respective matchups, but perhaps one of the teams from outside the power conferences can conjure a bit of magic on the biggest stage. Only time will tell. 

That said, here are my CFP bracket predictions:

First Round

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma (Friday, Dec. 19) 

Winner: Oklahoma

NORMAN, OKLAHOMA – NOVEMBER 29: Peyton Bowen #22 and Taylor Wein #44 of the Oklahoma Sooners celebrate a turnover on downs against the Louisiana State Tigers during the fourth quarter at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on November 29, 2025 in Norman, Oklahoma. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

There has been so much unrest surrounding Alabama in recent weeks that it’s fair to wonder about the head space of the Crimson Tide players and coaches entering the CFP. A little more than a month ago, on Nov. 15, Alabama turned the ball over three times in a narrow loss to this same Oklahoma team. A little more than two weeks ago, on Nov. 29, the Crimson Tide squandered a 17-0 lead against struggling Auburn and needed a late touchdown pass from quarterback Ty Simpson to wideout Isaiah Horton to emerge from the Iron Bowl unscathed. A little more than a week ago, on Dec. 6, Alabama was thumped by No. 3 Georgia, 28-7, in a largely non-competitive SEC championship game in which the offense looked confused at best and inept at worst. And over the past few days, as the Crimson Tide have been preparing for their most important game of the season, rumors are swirling about head coach Kalen DeBoer’s potential candidacy at Michigan, given his uneven first two seasons in Tuscaloosa. That’s a lot of drama and outside noise to overcome. 

Few people would question the idea that Alabama’s top gear eclipses anything Oklahoma has shown itself to be capable of this season. After all, the Crimson Tide defeated four consecutive top-16 opponents earlier this year. But DeBoer’s squad hasn’t reached that level in quite some time. Because of that, Alabama’s campaign might end with a thud. 

No. 10 Miami (Fla.) at No. 7 Texas A&M (Saturday, Dec. 20)

Winner: Texas A&M

(David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Statistically speaking, Miami’s offensive line has been among the best in the nation this season. The Hurricanes have allowed the fifth-fewest tackles for loss of any FBS program (42), and they’re tied with three other teams for the seventh-fewest sacks allowed (11). Quarterback Carson Beck, a high-profile addition in the transfer portal, has only been pressured on 14.7% of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus, which is down from 21.3% at Georgia in 2024. The offensive line’s best player, right tackle Francis Mauigoa, was named a first-team All-American by the Associated Press earlier this week. 

But the forgiving nature of the Hurricanes’ friendly ACC schedule — none of Miami’s conference opponents appeared in the final CFP rankings earlier this month — means they haven’t encountered a defensive front quite like the disruptive unit waiting for them at Kyle Field this weekend. Texas A&M is tied for first nationally in sacks (14.0) and ranks third in tackles for loss (104), joining Oklahoma (115) and Indiana (112) as the only programs above the century mark this season. Nine different players have tallied at least four tackles for loss, headlined by tremendous edge rusher Cashius Howell (14). Howell, a senior, also earned first-team All-America honors earlier this week after finishing tied for fourth nationally in sacks with 11.5, most in the SEC. That might be too much for Miami to handle in the trenches. 

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (Saturday, Dec. 20)

Winner: Ole Miss

(Justin Ford/Getty Images)

Along with Alabama vs. Oklahoma, this is the second of two rematches this season in the opening round. Unlike the earlier tilt between the Crimson Tide and the Sooners, which came down to a fourth-quarter field goal and might have gone either way, there was nothing remotely close about the September clash between Tulane and then-No. 13 Ole Miss. That game ended as a 35-point romp in favor of the Rebels, which is why it’s difficult to see this weekend’s battle going any other way — even as the program navigates a new path forward without head coach Lane Kiffin, who left for the same job at LSU. 

In some respects, the first matchup between Tulane and Ole Miss can be viewed as a turning point for the Rebels’ season, given that it was the first time Kiffin had officially named Trinidad Chambliss the starting quarterback. A transfer from Division II Ferris State, which is roughly three hours northwest of Detroit, Chambliss responded by completing 17 of 27 passes for 307 yards and two touchdowns against the Green Wave while also running the ball 14 times for an additional 112 yards. He quickly established himself as one of the premier dual-threat quarterbacks in the country and would finish the season having gained at least 50 rushing yards on five separate occasions. That Chambliss wound up eighth in the Heisman Trophy voting — including two first-place votes — despite serving as the Rebels’ backup for the first three games speaks to how dominant he was down the stretch.

If Tulane couldn’t stop him then, as a first-time starter, it’s unlikely the Green Wave will be able to stop him now. 

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (Saturday, Dec. 20)

Winner: Oregon

As both an individual team and a program, James Madison deserves tremendous credit for reaching the CFP. Only five years have passed since the Dukes were playing at the FCS level, eager to make the jump to FBS under former head coach Curt Cignetti, now the mastermind at Indiana. Cignetti promptly guided JMU to an 8-3 record during the Dukes’ first season of FBS competition and 11 wins in their second before leaving to take over the Hoosiers. His replacement, Bob Chesney, sustained that momentum with a 9-4 mark in 2024 — capped by a victory over Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl — and then put together arguably the greatest campaign in school history this fall. 

The Dukes now enter Saturday’s date with Oregon having won 11 consecutive games, including nine by double digits, after storming through the Sun Belt with relative ease. Under the current guidelines used by the CFP selection committee, the Dukes absolutely deserve their place in the field. 

But what’s also true is that James Madison’s showdown with Oregon has the potential to become a lopsided farce. Because as impressive as the Dukes might be statistically — they are tied for 10th nationally in scoring offense (37.3 points per game) and sit 10th in scoring defense (15.8 points per game) — Chesney’s team compiled those numbers while playing a schedule that ranked 121st out of 136 in difficulty. The only quality opponent James Madison faced this season was unranked Louisville in early September, and the Cardinals pulled away from the Dukes for a comfortable 28-14 victory. What Chesney & Co. will face this weekend at Autzen Stadium, where future NFL draft picks line both sides of the ball, is different than anything they’ve seen before. This one could be ugly. 

Quarterfinals

Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.