It’s that time of the year when we dive into all the college basketball historical bracket minutiae that I love so much for March Madness.
If nothing else, I hope you’ll find these nuggets interesting and good talking points as we head toward filling out our brackets and making our tournament wagers.
Enjoy!
Let’s take a look at some general bracket notes first.
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Final Four
In the last two years, six No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four. In the previous five years, six No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four. The years 2007, 2008 and 2009 were the last time there were three straight Final Fours with at least two No. 1 seeds and there have never been consecutive tournaments with at least three 1-seeds in the Final Four.
Title Game Chalk
Each of the last two national title games has featured two No. 1 seeds. There has never been a stretch of three straight years when the national title game featured two No. 1 seeds. The last three champs have either been Connecticut (twice) or the team that beat Connecticut (Florida last year). Additionally, 17 of the last 18 national champions have either been named UConn or been a 1-seed. No. 2-seed Villanova in 2016 is the one team that bucked the trend. In those 18 years, UConn has won four national titles — three coming as a 3-, 7- and 4-seed.
3-Seeds Rolling
Since 2017, teams that are 3-seeds are 30-2 straight up (SU) and 20-12 against the spread (ATS). In the previous three years, there were four upsets where a 14-seed defeated a 3-seed.
Which Double-Digit Seed Will Reach Sweet 16 This Year?
You can nearly always bank on at least one double-digit seed reaching the Sweet 16; it has happened 17 straight years and in 38 of the 40 tournaments since expansion. Each of the last three years, there has been exactly one.
Usually, a 2-Seed Goes Out Early
In the last 28 tournaments, only three times have all four No. 2 seeds reached the Sweet 16. In the last 12 tournaments, Villanova in 2016 is the only No. 2 seed to reach the national title game.
1-Seed Rarity
All four No. 1 seeds have reached the Elite Eight just twice in the last 15 tournaments.
Preseason Flops
Auburn (20th) and Creighton (23rd) are the only two preseason Top 25 teams to miss the NCAA Tournament.
The Gap is Historically Big
This is the first time since 1986 that all four 2-seeds are favored by at least 20 points in the first round. Only one covered that year. Dating back to 1985, there have been just 14 games involving a 3-seed vs. a 14-seed where the spread was at least 16 points. All four are that big this year. That includes Illinois, which is a 23-point favorite over Penn, which would mark the largest spread in a 3-14 game and the only one larger than 20 points. Dating back to 1985, there have been just 20 4-13 games with a spread of at least 13 points. All four are that big this year. This is the first time since 2000 that every 5-seed is favored by at least seven points in the Round of 64. All four won that year, but just one covered the big number.
No Title For You!
No team has won the national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament. Three-seed Michigan State is the highest seeded team this year which fits that mold.
Fade Florida?
Since 2007, only one defending national champion has advanced past the Sweet 16 and that was when Connecticut repeated as national champs in 2024.
Funny Seeing You Here …
This is the fifth time in the last eight tournaments that Duke and Michigan State have been in the same region (2018, 2019, 2022, 2023 and 2026). They would ultimately meet in two of the previous four (2019 and 2022).
You Want Upsets? Last Year Wasn’t for You
Last year saw just seven underdogs win their first round games. That was the fewest since 2018. And for the first time since 2017, no top 4-seed lost its first-round game. Was 2025 a one-year anomaly or will lack of upsets become the norm in the pay-for-play era?
And now let’s look at some trends featuring coaches and teams.
Akron has never won an NCAA Tournament game (0-8) and has lost in the Round of 64 as a 13- and 14-seed the last two years by 28 and 17 points, respectively.
Alabama has been eliminated by a No. 1 seed the last two years. The Crimson Tide could meet No. 1 seed Michigan in the Sweet 16 if form holds.
Arizona has been a No. 1 seed seven times. It has reached the Final Four just once from those seven trips and that was back in 1988.
The last two NCAA Tournament games John Calipari coached as a top 4-seed ended in losses (as a 3-seed against Oakland in 2024 and as a 2-seed against Saint Peter’s in 2022). SEC Champion Arkansas is a 4-seed facing Hawaii in the first round. Arkansas has reached the Sweet 16 in each of its last four tournament appearances, including as a 10-seed last year.
Under Jon Scheyer, Duke has covered five of its six games on the opening weekend of the Tournament.
Georgia hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2002.
Gonzaga has won 16 straight first-round games and is a massive favorite over Kennesaw State to extend that streak to 17.
Each of the past six times Kansas was not a No. 1 seed, the Jayhawks failed to make it out of the first weekend, losing in the first round once and the second round five times. The last time Kansas reached the Sweet 16 when it wasn’t a No. 1 seed was 2012.
Kentucky has failed to make it past the Sweet 16 in each of its last four Tournament appearances.
Michigan has reached the Sweet 16 in each of its last six trips to the big dance.
Missouri has just one NCAA Tournament victory since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011.
NC State has been a double-digit seed seven times. It has won its Round of 64 game four times and reached the Sweet 16 three times, including 2024 when it reached the Final Four.
Nebraska has made the NCAA Tournament eight times. The Huskers have never won a game, including being upset in a 3-14 game by Xavier in 1991. The Huskers are the only power conference team without an NCAA Tournament win.
Rick Pitino is 18-1 in the Round of 64 as a 6-seed or better. The one loss came in 2011 to 13-seed Morehead State. St. John’s hasn’t reached the Sweet 16 since 1999.
Saint Mary’s reached the Sweet 16 as a 10-seed in 2010 but has failed to reach that point again in its last eight NCAA Tournament trips. SMC’s four wins in the Round of 64 in that span all came as the higher seed before getting blown out in the second round by the higher-seeded opponent.
This is Santa Clara’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996, when the 10th-seeded Broncos led by Steve Nash upset Maryland in the first round. They are a 10-seed once again this year and face Kentucky.
Rick Barnes teams have been seeded five or worse 16 times. They have made it out of the first weekend once. That was in 2002 as a 6-seed (Texas). They have lost in the first round 12 times.
Since the field expanded in 1985, UCLA is 8-1 in the Round of 64 when seeded seven or lower. The Bruins have been seeded seventh and 11th in their two appearances under Mick Cronin and won those games by 25 and 11 points, respectively.
Virginia hasn’t won a Tournament game since winning the national title in 2019. UVA lost in the opening round by 25 last year and was upset as a 4-seed in both 2021 and 2023.
