With solely 4 races left within the 2026 NASCAR Cup Sequence season, it is crunch time within the race to make the Chase.
Thirteenth by way of nineteenth within the Cup Sequence standings are separated by solely 77 factors, and the subsequent 4 races can be a mad sprint by these on the bubble to get into the highest 16.
Here is how assured these bubble drivers needs to be about their probabilities of making the postseason on a scale of 1-10.
13. Joey Logano (+65) | Confidence stage: 9
Not solely does Logano have momentum on his facet after successful at North Wilkesboro and ending third at Indianapolis, however the remainder of the common season schedule traces up nicely for the No. 22 staff.
Ford and Penske have been good at brief, flatter ovals this 12 months, and Logano is at all times up entrance at Daytona. It is tough to belief Ford to convey quick automobiles to the monitor over the subsequent 4 races, however Logano and the No. 22 staff at all times appear to show up the wick in pressure-packed conditions.
14. Bubba Wallace (+60) | Confidence stage: 6
Wallace has a few one-race hole to the minimize line, although his benefit over seventeenth may very well be a lot larger if not for a pricey penalty at Atlanta.
The following three tracks — Iowa, Richmond and New Hampshire — on the schedule have not been nice for Wallace, although he is run prime 10 in any respect of them within the Subsequent-Gen period. Nevertheless, 23XI Racing’s brief monitor bundle nonetheless has a methods to go.
Daytona, and drafting tracks usually, have been good to Wallace all through his profession, however counting on superspeedway outcome is not a lot of a method. Prime-10 runs at two of the subsequent 4 races and avoiding catastrophe within the different two needs to be sufficient to get Wallace again into the postseason.
15. Shane van Gisbergen (+57) | Confidence stage: 5
On one hand, SVG has improved vastly at ovals this season. On the opposite, he is nonetheless studying, and maybe extra importantly, Trackhouse Racing is struggling to seek out constant velocity.
The truth that the subsequent three races are on shorter ovals ought to play into van Gisbergen’s arms, and he is confirmed to be a stable superspeedway racer. However until he is holding a niche of over 50 factors with two races left, it is exhausting to say that he could be trusted to make the Chase.
16. Austin Cindric (+38) | Confidence stage: 6
Cindric and the No. 2 Penske group ought to have first rate tempo over the subsequent 4 races, and he’ll seemingly be in rivalry for the win at Daytona. The query is whether or not or not Cindric, who has completed both thirteenth or 14th during the last 5 races, can discover sufficient velocity to complete prime 10 a couple of times to seal up a Chase spot, as he cannot assume that 4 extra Fifteenth-place runs are going to be sufficient.
17. Ryan Preece (-38) | Confidence stage: 4
Nothing towards Preece, however the No. 60 staff backslid by way of many of the summer season earlier than back-to-back prime 10s at Wilkesboro and Indy. The following 4 tracks line up nicely for Preece, however he’ll seemingly want two or three enormous factors days to shut the hole on Cindric, and that is not essentially one thing that may be counted on.
18. Erik Jones (-44) | Confidence stage: 2
Like SVG, it is simpler to belief Jones than his staff. LEGACY Motor Membership has made strides this season however continues to be but to constantly convey top-10 automobiles to the monitor each week for Jones, who must put 4 stable weeks at Daytona. If he can keep out of bother and inside putting distance over the subsequent three races, a win on the Florida excessive banks and a few carnage behind him is his greatest likelihood at snagging a Chase berth.
19. Brad Keselowski (-50) | Confidence stage: 5
The following 4 tracks line up nicely for the 2012 champion, who has a wealth of expertise to organize him for the stretch run to the Chase. Nevertheless, the No. 6 staff additionally spent a lot of the summer season hemorrhaging factors to the minimize line, and it is exhausting to belief a bunch that is been so inconsistent all 12 months. Like Jones, Daytona could also be Keselowski’s greatest shot to make one thing occur.
