Generally I wrestle with easy methods to wager on a recreation the place I really feel so assured within the final result.
Ohio State is simply higher than Notre Dame, and it’s arduous to search out any edge for the Irish within the matchups. However, right here goes nothing.
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Irish are what everybody hopes their favourite school program can turn into. They’re robust, gritty, resilient and play with ardour. They’re a sound staff, making few errors whereas forcing turnovers and taking part in excellent particular groups.
Nonetheless, that doesn’t make this a aggressive recreation in opposition to Ohio State — a greater staff at each place group with the flexibility to make explosive offensive performs and cease any opposing staff’s scoring alternatives.
Ohio State’s offense has bounced again from the inexcusable loss to Michigan to finish the common season. The Buckeyes have dedicated to the move of their final three video games, and whereas it wasn’t as fairly in opposition to Texas within the semifinal, they profile nicely in opposition to Notre Dame’s protection.
Michigan and Texas had been capable of play a ton of two-high security zone, which restricted Ohio State’s capacity to push the ball down the sphere with its elite receiving group. While you play two excessive safeties, that places one much less security into the field. This implies a protection should cease the run with the defensive position.
Michigan and Texas had the defensive traces to make that occur in opposition to an Ohio State offensive line that includes accidents. Nonetheless, OSU’s offensive line has performed nicely regardless of the accidents. It’s not a difficulty.
Notre Dame’s protection doesn’t play zone on the similar fee as Michigan or Texas. The Irish play man protection greater than 50% of their defensive snaps, and that won’t be efficient in opposition to Ohio State’s offense.
I get individuals have the urge to say, “Properly, they need to simply play zone protection.” And I want it was that simple. Notre Dame bought up to now with this fashion of protection, and it’s not going to alter in a single day. The Irish will attempt to combine it as much as confuse the Buckeyes offense, however that will not be sufficient to sluggish it down.
CFP Nationwide Championship Tremendous Six: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
I feel Ohio State will rating on this recreation.
On the opposite aspect of the ball, I don’t anticipate the Irish to attain typically on this contest.
Ohio State has allowed greater than 17 factors solely twice this season and that was in opposition to the identical staff. Oregon scored 32 in its first recreation in opposition to Ohio State after which 21 within the Rose Bowl, which included a late garbage-time landing.
Notre Dame’s offense is okay however not explosive sufficient to create factors for those who dink and dunk them down the sphere.
The Irish particular groups unit is incredible, and it forces a bunch of turnovers. That has been the important thing to its success this season. However can it make these turnovers occur in opposition to Ohio State? Laborious to handicap as a result of the Irish do not, this recreation received’t be shut.
Notre Dame’s season has been incredible and nothing will change that. I feel Ohio State covers, which continues the development of those championship video games being non-competitive with the favourite successful by a large margin.
PICK: Ohio State (-8) to win by greater than 8 factors
Will Ohio State or Notre Dame be the Nationwide Champion?
Riley Leonard Over/Beneath 14.5 speeding makes an attempt
The Notre Dame offense will probably be reliant on the flexibility of its quarterback to make use of his legs to generate offense.
Leonard’s capacity to maneuver and create has been essential for the success of the Irish offense within the postseason. He rushed 11 occasions in opposition to Indiana in a recreation wherein it didn’t want him. He had 14 speeding makes an attempt in opposition to Georgia after which 18 in opposition to Penn State within the semifinals.
The Irish use him in brief yardage and within the pink zone. Additionally, a reminder that sacks rely as speeding makes an attempt.
If Leonard is sacked 5 occasions and rushes for an additional 10 makes an attempt, we recover from 15.
PICK: Riley Leonard Over 14.5 speeding makes an attempt
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper sort out for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Observe him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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