The Bears’ season win total at most sportsbooks was 8.5.
Chicago now has 10 wins, with three games remaining.
Still, that hasn’t been enough to attract the public betting masses much of this season. But that’s starting to change, perhaps even more so in NFL Week 16 odds and a banged-up Packers outfit.
“The public wants to back a good offense,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said, noting coach Ben Johnson has his offense trending that way. “So slowly but surely, bettors are coming around on the Bears.”
A strong showing in prime time might help bring more bettors around. The Bears host the Packers in a Saturday night game on FOX.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that matchup and more, as we dive into NFL Week 16 betting nuggets.
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NFL Rocks on FOX
Chicago is 10-4 straight up (SU) and 8-5-1 against the spread (ATS). Green Bay sits at 9-4-1 SU/6-8 ATS for Saturday’s 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.
The Bears led the NFC North until losing at Green Bay 28-21 just two weeks ago. Then Chicago regained the lead by drilling Cleveland 31-3 in Week 15, while the Packers lost at Denver 34-26.
So first place could change hands for the third time in three weeks. But that’s not what bettors think as of Wednesday afternoon — both sharp customers and the public masses — after Caesars opened the Packers as 2.5-point road favorites.
“The Packers have a myriad of injuries, which led to sharp action coming in on the Bears at +2.5, +2 and +1.5,” Feazel said. “The Packers have owned the Bears the past 10 years (17-2 SU). But the Bears’ offense is clicking, and Caleb Williams has grown under Ben Johnson.
“It’s been pretty much all Bears money so far. I expect some Packers money by the weekend. But with the injuries — especially to Micah Parsons — it’s one-way action early.”
Parsons’ season ended last Sunday when he tore his left ACL in the loss at Denver. On offense, running back Josh Jacobs (knee) and wideout Christian Watson (chest/shoulder) are both listed as questionable midweek for Green Bay.
Thursday Night Throwdown
There’s also a standout matchup kicking off NFL Week 16 odds: Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks.
Months ago, no one would’ve projected these two teams would be Nos. 1-2 in Super Bowl odds in mid-December.
Yet here we are.
Both teams have been excellent for bettors, as well. The Rams and Seahawks are 11-3 SU/10-4 ATS, sharing the best spread-covering record in the NFL. So something’s got to give in this 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday meeting.
Caesars opened Seattle as a 1-point home favorite, but the number flipped to L.A. -1/-1.5 in short order and stuck there the past couple days. However, as of Wednesday afternoon, it’s Seahawks -1 (-102).
“We’re seeing somewhat balanced action thus far. There’s slightly more Rams money because of how they’re playing on offense. They’re firing on all cylinders, but Seattle is playing really good defensively,” Feazel said.
That has helped draw some early attention to the total. Caesars opened the Over/Under at 45.5 and is already down to 42.5.
Weather is likely to factor in, too, with rainfall during the day and winds of 10-20 mph Thursday night.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is getting in on the anti-Chiefs sentiment this week. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL in the Week 15 home loss to the Chargers, which ended his season and eliminated Kansas City (6-8 SU/5-9 ATS) from playoff contention.
Lowly Tennessee (2-12 SU/6-8 ATS) is in the hunt for the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, meaning a loss would serve the Titans well in that respect.
McKay isn’t playing the Titans to win but likes them on the spread as 3.5-point home underdogs.
“What’s the motivation here for the Chiefs?” McKay said. “Tennessee’s defensive line matches up well against a beat-up Kansas City offensive line. I also like Titans QB Cam Ward lately and Chimere Dike as an offensive weapon.”
Mile-High Momentum
The Broncos are on a fully unexpected 11-game win streak. At 12-2 SU, Denver sits not only atop the AFC, but the entire NFL. However, the Broncos are a middling 6-8 ATS.
The Jaguars (10-4 SU and ATS) are winning and covering the spread. Jacksonville enters Week 16 on a 5-0 SU and ATS run, surging to the AFC South lead in the process.
Caesars opened the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites and moved to -3 in short order this week, for Sunday’s 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff. As of Wednesday afternoon, Denver is -3 (-113).
“They’re betting the Broncos, and they’re betting the Over,” Feazel said. “I’d think if they were betting the Over, then then they’d be betting the Jaguars.”
Sunday Night Showdown
The Patriots (11-3 SU/9-5 ATS) saw their win streak snapped at 10 games in Week 15. New England led Buffalo 21-0 in the second quarter and 24-7 at halftime, but ultimately fell short 35-31.
The Ravens (7-7 SU/6-8 ATS) are on the outside looking in for the playoffs, needing a win to keep pressure on Pittsburgh (8-6 SU). Caesars opened Baltimore as a 2.5-point home favorite for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.
The spread moved to Ravens -3 (-107) on Monday, and it remains there Wednesday afternoon.
“The Ravens aren’t in the driver’s seat at all, and they have to win. The AFC North title is their only path to the playoffs,” Feazel said. “We’re surprisingly getting more Patriots action than we anticipated, on the spread and the moneyline.
“That’s where the public is coming in. The Ravens still have a lot of problems on both sides of the ball.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
With a few good matchups, NFL Week 16 odds will no doubt attract some major wagers. But they haven’t arrived yet. So let’s jump back to the Week 15 Monday nighter for a couple noteworthy bets.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, a customer put $60,000 on Steelers -3 (-115) vs. the Dolphins. At halftime of an offensive slog, Pittsburgh led 7-3.
But Aaron Rodgers & Co. picked it up in the second half, winning 28-15 to easily cover the number. So the bettor pocketed $52,173.91 in profit (total payout $112,173.91).
The more intriguing wager, though, was a small bet that paid relatively big. At FanDuel Sportsbook, a customer put 10 bucks on Steelers defensive tackle Connor Heyward scoring the game’s first touchdown.
The odds: A hefty +10000, or 100/1 in easier-to-consume terms.
Sure enough, with 17 seconds left in the first half and the Steelers on the 1-yard line, Rodgers handed off to Heyward, who banged it in to give Pittsburgh that 7-3 lead.
And the bettor bagged $1,000 in profit. That’s my kind of ROI, on a much more relatable bet size for all of us.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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