There are five games on Sunday’s NFL betting board with double-digit point spreads, as playoff teams are thriving and awful teams can’t wait for vacation.
I’m avoiding all five of those games.
Don’t worry, I’ve still got four football bets this weekend. One of them is a futures position in the wide-open AFC.
Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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2025 Record: (30-42-6, -16.0 units)
Browns @ Bears (-7.5, O/U 38.5)
The Bears haven’t been this big of a favorite in five years. Think about that. That’s how much head coach Ben Johnson has elevated things. Weather is going to be horrendous in Chicago, with the wind chill expected to be -10. That’s not a typo — 10 below zero. Neither team throws the ball with lots of success in normal conditions and I don’t expect that to start here. The Bears have been buttering their bread with the running game, but the Browns’ D is very strong against the run. This one should be a rock fight.
PICK: Browns (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points or win outright
Four of the last six meetings between these two AFC North squads have been decided by three points. The other two by four and five. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson truly bring out the best in each other and that song should remain the same. Someone close to the Bengals has been convinced that Burrow’s playing because he wants to compete and play spoiler. He wants to keep the Ravens out of the playoffs. If this game follows the plot, it’ll be a quintessential coin flip, so I’ll take the points with the home ‘dog.
PICK: Bengals (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Maybe you’ve heard that I like the Bills. I’ve been spreading the news. Buffalo is still my highest-rated team in the AFC and most Las Vegas oddsmakers agree. Josh Allen is tough to beat at his best and the Bills’ defensive front has played much better lately. The Patriots and Drake Maye aren’t sneaking up on anybody anymore, and I expect the Bills to be way too ready to avenge a loss earlier this season at Highmark Stadium. If you don’t have any Buffalo Super Bowl stock yet, now would be the time to invest.
PICK: Bills (-1) to win by more than 1 point
PICK: Bills (+900) to win Super Bowl
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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