Can you ask for much more in college football conference championship odds than No. 1 vs. No. 2?
Because that’s what you’re getting Saturday night on FOX: Ohio State vs. Indiana, in a battle of unbeatens for the Big Ten title and presumably the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
“It doesn’t get any better than this, 1 vs. 2,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Well, actually, it can get a little better — if there’s another odds market heavily impacted by the Big Ten final.
“This game has big Heisman Trophy implications,” Feazel said, noting Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the favorite, with Ohio State QB Julian Sayin close behind. “Mendoza has a chance to show he can play with the best of them.”
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on Indiana vs. Ohio State and more, as we dive into this week’s college football betting nuggets.
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College Football Rocks on FOX
Ohio State isn’t just getting it done on the field this season, with its 12-0 record straight up (SU). The Buckeyes are also delivering for bettors, going a nation-best 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS).
Likewise, Indiana is a perfect 12-0 SU but a more middling 7-5 ATS, despite pouring on the points. The Hoosiers have scored 55 or more six times this year.
Caesars Sports opened Ohio State as a 5.5-point favorite for this neutral-site game, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. By Monday, the line was down to Buckeyes -4.5, and it went to -4 on Wednesday for Saturday’s 8 p.m. ET clash on FOX.
“There’s some surprising line movement going toward Indiana, which is not really reflective of the action we’re seeing,” Feazel said.
That’s because, while early sharp play came in on Indiana +5.5, the public betting masses are mostly weighing in on the favorite.
“I expect to see some money come in on Indiana moneyline,” Feazel said, noting Hoosiers backers will be betting on an outright upset. “But so far, it’s one-way traffic on Ohio State. This is the rare occasion this season that we’re gonna be Hoosiers fans.
“It’ll probably be a big need, and we’ll need Indiana to win outright. There’ll be a lot of parlays running to Ohio State, as the last game of the day.”
On Campus Sharp Side
On the subject of Indiana vs. Ohio State, college football betting expert Paul Stone is already involved with Big Ten Championship odds. Stone is coming off correctly forecasting Texas covering as a 2-point home underdog vs. Texas A&M.
The Longhorns won outright 27-17.
Stone noted that Ohio State and Indiana are virtual locks to partake in the 12-team College Football Playoff. And that’s helping inform his decision to take Indiana as a 4-point underdog.
“I think this game carries more meaning for Indiana,” Stone said. “Both schools are making the Playoff regardless of what happens on the field Saturday. It would mean the world to Indiana to knock off Ohio State.
“On the other hand, if Ohio State loses, it still has a chance to be the two-time defending national champion. Nothing really changes for the Buckeyes.”
SEC Showdown
A week ago, unbeaten Texas A&M was in the driver’s seat for an SEC Championship Game berth, likely to face Alabama. But as noted above, A&M tumbled at Texas, opening the door for Georgia to reach the conference final.
Alabama (10-2 SU/7-4-1 ATS) has one more loss than Georgia (11-1 SU/5-7 ATS) but has been better for bettors. Further, in Week 5, the Crimson Tide went to Athens and beat the Bulldogs 24-21.
Still, Caesars opened Georgia as a 1.5-point favorite for this quasi-neutral-site game, at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. And early bettors followed the bookmaker’s lead for a 4 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff.
“We’ve seen sharp action on Georgia and even general action is coming in on Georgia,” Feazel said Wednesday. “Alabama needs this big time. If the Crimson Tide lose, there are questions about whether they get into the Playoff.
“We certainly expect to see some Alabama money coming in. So what we’ll probably need most is just a lower-scoring game. There’s a lot of action on the Over.”
That said, the total is stable at 47.5 as of Wednesday night.
Chaos Coming?
Duke vs. Virginia is not what oddsmakers nor CFP committee members expected or wanted in the ACC Championship Game.
But that’s what they’re getting, in another 8 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday. The Blue Devils (7-5 SU/5-6-1 ATS) won a five-team second-place tiebreaker in the ACC, advancing to meet the first-place Cavaliers (10-2 SU/8-4 ATS).
Despite the disparity in records, Caesars rates these two teams fairly close. Virginia opened as a 2.5-point favorite and has been bet up to -3.5 for a neutral-site game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C.
“If Duke wins this game, which it certainly is capable of, we’re gonna see two non-Power 4 teams in the Playoff,” Feazel said.
Feazel firmly believes if the unranked and five-loss Blue Devils hoist the ACC trophy, then James Madison (a huge favorite vs. Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game) and either Tulane or North Texas (who meet in the AAC Championship Game) will be ranked ahead of Duke.
Based on CFP rules, that means James Madison and either Tulane or North Texas will be in the CFP.
“You’re gonna see some drama. The SEC stans are gonna come out on social media,” Feazel said. “For the sake of missing that drama, we’re hoping that Virginia wins.
“We are seeing a lot of Virginia action on this game. But Virginia is a big need for us in the ACC futures market. This is the one spot this week where conference futures comes into play for us.”
Speedy Turnaround
In the Big 12 Championship Game, it’s BYU vs. Texas Tech for the second time in four weeks. On Nov. 8, the Red Raiders took it to the Cougars, rolling 29-7 as 13.5-point home favorites.
So no surprise, Caesars again made Texas Tech (11-1 SU/10-2 ATS) a sizable favorite, opening at -12 and peaking at -13.5 early this week. As of midnight ET on Wednesday, the Red Raiders stood at -12.5 (-120) vs. BYU (11-1 SU/9-3 ATS), for Saturday’s noon ET kickoff at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
“Like Ohio State, Texas Tech is another team that has been absolutely dominant,” Feazel said, noting bettors agree. “They’re all over Texas Tech, similar to how they’ve been every week.
“Our need is definitely going to be BYU and the Under in this one.”
That’s even with the total backing up a little so far, opening at 50.5 and dipping to 49.5.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Undoubtedly, there are many bettors holding tickets on Georgia to win the national championship, but few are larger than a recent wager that landed at BetMGM.
Last week, a customer put $40,000 on Georgia +1000 to lift the trophy on Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. If Georgia wins its third title in five seasons, then the bettor profits a hefty $400,000, for a total payout of $440,000.
Another BetMGM customer who placed three major wagers on College Football Playoff futures odds — each to win ostensibly $1.5 million — has seen all three tickets go up in smoke this season.
In late June, the bettor put $300,000 on Texas +500, $200,000 on Penn State +750 and $115,000 on Clemson +1300. Penn State and Clemson were dead long ago, and once Texas lost at Georgia in Week 12, that was pretty much the end of the line for the Longhorns.
That’s a $615,000 donation to the house. Ouch.
And it’s another reminder to wager responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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