There are 41 teams with a path to the national championship in the proposed 24-team College Football Playoff model gaining the most traction around the sport.
It’s not that Ohio State, Indiana or Texas A&M get a bye week and a home game. It’s that Florida, Oklahoma and even Wake Forest still have a path to the national title with a 24-team College Football Playoff.
While that sounds preposterous for a 3-4 team, Florida has games left against No. 5 Georgia, Mississippi State, Kentucky, No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 14 Tennessee and Florida State. If the Gators run the table, there’s still a chaotic chance they will make the CFP as one of the four best teams in the SEC or as an at-large selection, because that résumé and strength of record would be so strong.
In August, the Big Ten and others began “populating” the idea of an expanded College Football Playoff of 24 or 28 teams. The 24-team model, which seems to have the most support in private circles, would include:
- Four automatic qualifiers from each of the Power 4 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC)
- Two automatic qualifiers from the Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt and Pac-12)
- Six at-large selections to be made by the College Football Playoff selection committee — the only selections the committee gets to make
Which begs the query: How would the 24-team CFP look if the match started as we speak?
In my evaluation of a 24-team format, 41 Energy 4 applications — together with 10 from the SEC, eight from the Massive Ten, six from the Massive 12, seven from the ACC, and 10 Group of 6 groups and Notre Dame — would nonetheless have a path to the postseason.
Heading into Week 10 of the season, groups which have confirmed themselves in convention play nonetheless have simply as a lot alternative to win all of it as No. 1 Ohio State. That’s an enormous win for the game. It creates a extra democratic system for figuring out the most effective workforce, with much less debate and extra certainty.
The scoreboard has extra company.
And followers have the most effective probability within the sport’s historical past to see their workforce play for — and win — a nationwide title.
Here is the way it works:
This 24-team format options 18 computerized qualifiers
I’ve set it as much as seem like what you’ll learn beneath and stand in to characterize the School Soccer Playoff choice committee.
The highest 4 groups from every of the Energy 4 conferences, based mostly on convention standings, mechanically qualify for the CFP. The 2 highest-ranked Group of 6 groups — not essentially convention champions — additionally obtain computerized bids. The remaining six at-large spots are crammed on the choice committee’s discretion.
Groups are seeded by the choice committee
Because the personification of the choice committee, I’m inspired to take into consideration head-to-head matchups, energy of report, teaching, personnel and high quality of out-of-conference play when seeding groups.
Successful a convention championship is a robust indicator for a top-seeded workforce.
Successful a convention title doesn’t mechanically qualify a workforce for a better seed than a non-conference champion.
The 24-team playoff’s biggest energy is the addition of two rounds of dwelling video games
My prime 25, which you can read here, is the premise on which these seedings are assigned.
The primary two rounds of a 24-team playoff would function two rounds of dwelling video games. The 4 groups that advance via the opening rounds will play their subsequent sport at a New 12 months’s Six Bowl in a impartial web site semifinal.
Groups seeded No. 1 to No. 8 get a bye and a house playoff sport. Groups seeded No. 9 to No. 16 every open the match with a house playoff sport. Groups seeded No. 17 to No. 24 every should play on the street twice to advance to the impartial web site quarterfinals.
I have to summarize this, as a result of it’s the most effective facet of the 24-team CFP: 16 totally different campuses host dwelling playoff video games.
With that, here’s a take a look at the Week 10 24-team CFP bracket:
FIRST-ROUND BYE, SECOND-ROUND HOME GAME
1. Ohio State (7-0)
The Buckeyes are permitting 5.9 PPG via seven video games, which isn’t solely the bottom common within the FBS, nevertheless it’s additionally the fewest factors per sport the Buckeyes have allowed since 1973.
2. Indiana (8-0)
The Hoosiers are the one FBS workforce with two wins in opposition to AP prime 10 opponents. They rank within the prime 4 within the FBS in level differential (276), factors per sport (45.4), factors allowed per sport (10.9), and sacks (29).
3. Texas A&M (8-0)
The Aggies are the one undefeated FBS workforce with 5 video games of 40-plus factors. They’re additionally one among three unbeaten groups to have overwhelmed a number of ranked opponents.
4. Alabama (7-1)
The Crimson Tide recorded 4 consecutive wins in opposition to ranked SEC opponents — a feat that has solely occurred twice in AP Ballot historical past. Their eight-point comeback win over South Carolina was the workforce’s largest since 2021.
5. Oregon (7-1)
Oregon is one among three FBS groups to common over 40 factors per sport whereas permitting fewer than 15, together with Indiana and Texas Tech.
6. Georgia (6-1)
Kirby Good’s workforce is 6-1 with a pair of top-15 wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss. Since 2021, Georgia is 59–6, the very best profitable proportion of any FBS workforce, and received nationwide titles in each 2021 and 2022.
7. Ole Miss (7-1)
Ole Miss ranks within the prime 10 amongst Energy 4 groups in yards per sport (484.3) and large performs (85). The Rebels are additionally prime 5 in scrimmage performs of 25, 30 and 40-plus yards.
8. Vanderbilt (7-1, at-large)
Vanderbilt has overwhelmed three ranked opponents in the identical season for the primary time ever, with its No. 9 rating within the AP Ballot the very best since 1937. The Commodores are additionally one among three FBS groups with three wins over ranked opponents, together with Alabama and Miami.
FIRST-ROUND HOME GAME
9. Tennessee (6-2, at-large)
Losses to Alabama and Georgia would possibly grow to be losses to 2 groups who will play for the SEC Championship. The Vols lack a top-25 victory however might need an opportunity to get two within the subsequent 4 video games with Oklahoma and Vanderbilt left on the schedule.
10. BYU (8-0)
The Cougars are the one remaining undefeated workforce within the Massive 12 and have the clearest path to the CFP of any workforce in that league, and, on this format, the Cougars could be rewarded with a house sport.
11. Georgia Tech (8-0)
The very best-ranked ACC workforce can be the final undefeated workforce within the convention, and the one ranked opponent left on the Yellow Jackets’ schedule is their conventional out-of-conference rival, Georgia. Given the way in which the season has performed out, it’s doable Georgia Tech ends the common season with 11 wins in opposition to groups that received’t end within the prime 25 when the postseason begins.
12. Louisville (7-1)
The Cardinals’ win on the street at then-No. 2 Miami is the most effective win of any workforce within the ACC, and their solely loss is to a top-25 opponent who wanted double-overtime to defeat them (Virginia).
13. Miami (7-1, at-large)
The Hurricanes took a house loss to an unranked opponent whereas ranked No. 2 within the nation. Nevertheless, Louisville is now 7-1.
If Miami avoids one other loss in opposition to an unranked workforce, the Canes will end the common season 11–1, with no ranked opponents remaining on their schedule as of now. The priority? Their greatest wins would possibly find yourself being in opposition to South Florida and SMU — not precisely elite competitors.
14. Notre Dame (5-2, at-large)
The Preventing Irish’s résumé took a success when Louisville walked into Arduous Rock Stadium and beat a Miami workforce that Notre Dame couldn’t — in the identical venue. However their loss to Texas A&M doesn’t look as unhealthy now, with the Aggies off to a 7–0 begin for the primary time since 1994.
Notre Dame’s greatest win got here in opposition to USC, and it may face an undefeated Navy in two weeks. That, together with a 10-win common season, is likely to be sufficient for the Irish to slip into an at-large spot.
15. Missouri (6-2, at-large)
Shedding quarterback Beau Pribula hasn’t made Missouri’s loss to Vanderbilt any simpler for followers to swallow. Nonetheless, the protection and dashing assault stay sturdy, as proven of their single-score defeat in Week 9.
16. Texas (6-2, at-large)
For the second week in a row, the Longhorns wanted a late comeback to defeat a middling SEC program in additional time. For the third straight week, an SEC workforce has made the error of kicking to Ryan Niblett, the nation’s greatest punt returner. He has punished Oklahoma, Kentucky and Mississippi State with explosive returns that gave Texas a bonus no different workforce has.
ON THE ROAD
17. Texas Tech (7-1)
at Texas
The Pink Raiders had been one among 5 undefeated groups to undergo a loss throughout Week 8, however they rebounded with a dominant win over Oklahoma State this previous week and nonetheless have a street to the Massive 12 title sport and the CFP. Joey McGuire’s workforce is on a collision course with 8-0 BYU in Week 11. Nevertheless, they’re now down not one however two beginning quarterbacks. Will Hammond tore his ACL, leaving Mitch Griffis because the workforce’s healthiest scholarship QB.
18. Memphis (7-1)
at Missouri
The Tigers seem like the most effective workforce within the Group of 6, however they nonetheless need to show it after a loss to an terrible UAB workforce. They’ll get that probability with video games in opposition to Tulane in Week 11 and Navy in Week 13, which may assist them retain this spot.
19. Michigan (6-2)
at Notre Dame
The Wolverines have losses to USC and Oklahoma, however since each groups are nonetheless in competition for the CFP, Michigan’s case for an at-large spot is stronger. And there’s nonetheless Ohio State to play.
20. Cincinnati (7-1)
at Miami
Cincinnati may change into the primary workforce to succeed in the CFP as a G6 and P4 program if it continues its current trajectory. The Bearcats haven’t misplaced a single Massive 12 sport and could have a chance to indicate they’re the most effective workforce within the league earlier than the postseason with remaining matchups in opposition to Utah and BYU.
21. Houston (7-1)
at Louisville
The Cougars assumed the spot that was occupied by Arizona State with their win over the Solar Devils this previous weekend. Now, Houston may end because the fourth-best workforce within the Massive 12 or higher. And so they don’t play a workforce within the prime three of the standings for the remainder of the season.
22. Virginia (7-1)
at Georgia Tech
The Cavaliers are banking on transitive wins and a comparatively comfortable path to finish the season. Their greatest victory is over Louisville, they usually don’t face one other ranked opponent the remainder of the way in which. Meaning UVA wouldn’t need to see Georgia Tech or Miami till the postseason, even when it wanted additional time to defeat three of its final 4 opponents.
23. Navy (7-0)
at BYU
The Midshipmen are the final undefeated workforce within the Group of 6 conferences and will see themselves all however solidify their AQ spot with wins over North Texas in Week 10, Notre Dame in Week 11, South Florida in Week 12 and Memphis in Week 14.
24. Pitt (6-2)
After shedding back-to-back video games in opposition to West Virginia and Louisville in September, Pat Narduzzi’s workforce has quietly rattled off 4 straight wins, together with a pair of street wins at Florida State and Syracuse. Freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel has ignited the Panthers offense, which is averaging 41.5 factors per sport in the course of the workforce’s profitable streak.
Above is how the CFP would look if the season ended as we speak, however there shall be adjustments and groups not included within the bracket that also have possibilities to earn entry into the match.
Groups on the bubble have taken on losses, however not sufficient losses for them to not crawl into the highest quarter of their convention, and, with 10 and even simply 9 wins within the common season, may discover themselves into an computerized qualifier spot.
Each sport issues. Rivalry video games matter extra.
Nobody in Columbus, Ohio, must be reminded that the Buckeyes haven’t received “The Recreation” since 2019, and a win for a Michigan workforce that has received eight video games heading into “The Recreation” this season may nearly actually imply the Wolverines could be within the CFP.
Texas A&M, which hasn’t received a convention title this century or a nationwide title since 1939, should stare down their arch nemesis, Texas, with what might be a spot within the SEC Championship on the road for the Aggies, and a spot within the CFP for the Longhorns.
Good, Previous-Common Hate. The rivalry between Georgia Tech and Georgia this yr makes it conceivable {that a} loss to the Yellow Jackets may see the Dawgs ignored of the playoff for the primary time in three years.
The 24-team CFP takes on the most effective points of the November rivalry: dwelling and away video games performed on campuses throughout the nation the place ambiance, emotion and pageantry are unmatched.
RJ Young is a nationwide faculty soccer author and analyst for FOX Sports activities. Comply with him @RJ_Young.
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