Last Saturday in Columbia, the Missouri Tigers racked up 456 yards of offense while South Carolina committed 14 penalties and rushed for -9 yards.
Mizzou (-9.5) still managed to only win by nine.
When it rains, it pours.
I’m fired up about Saturday’s Alabama–Georgia game and Patrick Mahomes is back in the underdog role. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I’m betting with my own money.
Let’s go to work.
2025 Record: (7-13-1, -7.4 units)
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No. 17 Alabama @ No. 5 Georgia (-3, O/U 53.5)
Wise guys I respect love Bama here, and one former bookmaker told me this game should be a pick ‘em. Pretty strong words, although Tennessee recently threw for almost 500 yards against this Georgia defense. Things are lining up well for Tide quarterback Ty Simpson and if you dive a little deeper, these are the games where Kalen DeBoer has historically delivered for bettors. DeBoer is 9-2 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog with eight outright wins.
PICK: Alabama (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
PICK: Alabama (+130) moneyline to win outright
No. 11 Indiana (-7.5, O/U 47.5) @ Iowa
The public is laying points with Indiana like they know the final score, while the more notable move in the game is Under 49 to 47.5 and 47. You’ve gotta believe Iowa knows it can’t trade touchdowns with Indiana and will try to suck the Hoosiers into a rock fight. I’ll be holding out hope for some fortuitous Kinnick Stadium bounces on punts inside the 10-yard line.
PICK: Under 47.5 points scored by both teams combined
No. 1 Ohio State (-8.5, O/U 52.5) @ Washington
When you’re cold as ice, it’s a great idea to bet against the No. 1 team in the country. Right? Washington quarterback Demond Williams is a dual-threat weapon who will test the boundaries against OSU’s defense. This is a big number for the Buckeyes to lay in their first game outside Columbus and I think Williams and the Huskies are live to keep things interesting.
PICK: Washington (+8.5) to lose by fewer than 8.5 points or win outright
No. 6 Oregon @ No. 3 Penn State (-3.5, O/U 53)
There aren’t many ‘dogs trendier than Oregon, as the betting line holds strong at -3.5 with offshore shop Pinnacle out to -4. We hear a ton about Penn State’s shaky offense but not nearly enough about its ferocious defense with four NFL players wreaking havoc. Also, I don’t know that it’s possible to truly quantify a White Out in Happy Valley, but that place will be deafening.
PICK: Penn State (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, O/U 48.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens defense is searching for answers with Nnamdi Madubuike and Broderick Washington both out up front and linebacker Kyle Van Noy questionable with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, the Chiefs get speedy receiver Xavier Worthy back, a much-needed boost for their offense. It’s worth noting that Patrick Mahomes is 12-3-1 ATS as a dog in his career.
PICK: Chiefs (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots (-5.5, O/U 42.5)
We’re still doing this with the Patriots, huh? New England has the second-most turnovers in the league and is committing nine penalties a game. But hey, Mike Vrabel will fix everything! Carolina was surprisingly dominant last week in a 30-0 trouncing of Atlanta, and I’m too ready to take those points with Bryce Young and the rollercoaster Panthers.
PICK: Panthers (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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