It’s time to get hot.
There’s no sugarcoating a 5-9-1 start, and I’m not going to try.
Looks were strong on Miami and the Oregon Under; they were bad on Minnesota and the Raiders. And, of course, Geno Smith hurled an interception on his first pass.
Woof.
Let’s get some bounces to break our way and turn things around heading toward October. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I’m betting with my own money.
Let’s go to work.
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2025 Record: (5-9-1, -5.0 units)
South Carolina @ No. 23 Mizzou (-9.5, O/U 48.5)
Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers is probable after suffering a concussion last week, and he should play “barring a setback.” I love when reporters do this. The market says he’s in, but the market believed Austin Simmons was playing for Ole Miss last week. We’ll see. Even if Sellers goes, South Carolina should struggle to keep up with Mizzou and Beau Pribula. This market was -14 on Monday afternoon and I find myself buying low on the favorite.
PICK: Mizzou (-9.5) to win by more than 9.5 points
Buckle up for Friday night fun in Piscataway. This is mostly a fade of Iowa’s offense and its transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski. However, the Hawkeyes defense will likely keep the game close. I think this line should be a PK, and I’m happy to take the small home puppy under the lights. You might not enjoy watching this one aesthetically, but I think Rutgers is right.
PICK: Rutgers (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points or win outright
Syracuse @ Clemson (-16.5, O/U 54.5)
Dabo Swinney is too ready to beat up on a bad team. After facing LSU and Georgia Tech — not to mention the sandwich spot against Troy — Clemson needs a layup in the worst of ways. And don’t think for one second that Dabo won’t run over the Orange, then throw it in reverse and run them over again. Cade Klubnik is going to love facing this Syracuse defense for four quarters.
PICK: Clemson (-16.5) to win by more than 16.5 points
Sam Houston State @ No. 8 Texas (-39.5, O/U 51)
Are you sensing a trend yet? I’m buying a ton of teams this week that people just don’t want to bet. Texas is another legit example of a team that was overhyped all summer and hasn’t met the unfair expectations. Everywhere you look, Arch Manning is a bust, the offense is broken, et cetera, et cetera. Nevermind that Sam Houston is horrendous and could lose 52-7.
PICK: Texas (-39.5) to win by more than 39.5 points
Green Bay Packers (-8, O/U 41.5) @ Cleveland Browns
Packers stock is so expensive after two weeks of defensive dominance, and it makes sense. But now The Cheese is laying over a touchdown on the road? If there’s one thing Cleveland excels at, it’s pressuring the pocket. Green Bay has been shuffling its offensive line around due to injuries and I believe we’re in for Browns Ball this Sunday. And maybe Joe Flacco goes wacko.
PICK: Browns (+8) to lose by fewer than 8 points or win outright
Dallas Cowboys (-1, O/U 50.5) @ Chicago Bears
The Bears defense was already allergic to getting to the quarterback, and now it could be down four starters on that side of the ball. Top corner Jaylon Johnson is out, linebacker T.J. Edwards isn’t practicing, and two other defensive backs are banged up. How is Chicago getting stops? Assuming Dak Prescott has time in the pocket, this one could get ugly.
PICK: Cowboys (-1) to win by more than 1 point
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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