Sunday night’s incredible finish between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills turned the NFL Week 1 odds market on its head, all in the span of four minutes.
What looked like a mortal-lock Ravens win became a shocking Bills comeback victory. And the bookmakers were big beneficiaries.
“An incredible comeback that resulted in a six-figure swing to the good for the book,” said Casey Degnon, risk manager for The SuperBook in Las Vegas.
Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
Fantastic Finish
Back in the day, there was a great weekly TV segment called “Fantastic Finishes.” Sunday night’s festivities in Buffalo were as epic as any of those recollections from the 1980s NFL.
The Bills trailed 40-25 well into the fourth quarter, in a game the Ravens dominated, thanks to huge nights from Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
But with 3:56 left, Josh Allen connected with Keon Coleman on a 10-yard touchdown pass to pull Buffalo within eight at 40-32. Two plays later, Henry — who finished with 169 rushing yards and two TDs — stunningly fumbled, and Buffalo recovered.
Four plays and 30 yards later, Allen leaped over the goal line for a touchdown to make it 40-38. The Bills missed the 2-point conversion but still had all three timeouts and 1:58 remaining.
Buffalo’s defense then forced a rare Baltimore punt. Allen propelled the Bills on a 66-yard drive, capped by Matt Prater’s 32-yard field goal to give Buffalo a jaw-dropping 41-40 victory.
Multiple sportsbooks needed the Bills, with the Ravens drawing sharp and public play.
“What is there to say? One of the most incredible comebacks that I can remember,” said longtime oddsmaker Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at South Point in Las Vegas. “That’s nearly impossible and against a great team. It’s hard to believe.”
On a more national scale, BetMGM also needed Buffalo. But the result was diluted a bit by such a high-scoring game, with the 81 points flying over the total of 51.5.
“It was helpful that Buffalo came back. But 81 points scored is less than ideal. A lot of Over parlays hit,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said.
The Rest Of The Weekend
Prior to the Bills’ rally, The SuperBook was in the midst of a back-and-forth Sunday.
“The early results were really solid, but the late games were a disappointment,” SuperBook vice president John Murray said. “We needed the Texans and the Seahawks.”
Houston was a 3-point road underdog vs. the Los Angeles Rams and lost 14-9. Seattle was a 2.5-point home ‘dog vs. San Francisco and fell 17-13.
A big game for multiple sportsbooks was Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos, with the whole world seemingly on Denver. Tennessee made it interesting, trailing just 13-12 late, but the Titans ultimately lost 20-12 as 8.5-point road underdogs.
“Of course, we would’ve loved to see the Titans take out parlays and teasers for us. But it wasn’t meant to be this week,” Murray said.
The Seahawks-Niners outcome also stung South Point.
“The day was going OK. But that was huge. That was probably our biggest need of the day. We needed Seattle to win the game,” Andrews said. “And Denver by eight was not a good result.”
Adam Amin & Mark Sanchez break down Broncos’ defense in win vs. Titans
It’s Never Under Til It’s Over
One trend that worked very much in bookmakers’ favor: Unders. Lots of Unders. It all started Thursday night in the Dallas Cowboys–Philadelphia Eagles showdown.
Pregame, the total closed at 47.5. Then the two teams combined for 41 first-half points, with Philly up 21-20. But there were only three points scored in the second half, on a third-quarter Eagles field goal, as Philadelphia won 24-20.
It was a massive bad beat for Over bettors. And another boon for the books.
“The Under was huge, and the Cowboys covering was great,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said, noting Dallas was an 8.5-point road underdog. “There were too many Jalen Hurts TDs (2), as well as a Saquon Barkley TD. So that ate up some of the profit for the house.
“But all in all, it was a great start to the season for the books.”
Added The SuperBook’s Murray: “I have no idea how that stayed Under. But we will take that, too.”
By the time Ravens-Bills kicked off Sunday night, the Under was 12-2 on the weekend. As noted above, the Sunday night game finally slowed that trend.
On Campus
In terms of marquee matchups, the college football Week 2 odds market paled in comparison with Week 1. But there was plenty of action out there, with mixed results, depending on the sportsbook.
“We had a bad Saturday,” Murray said. “Some house players were big on Oklahoma, so we didn’t do well on that game.”
The Sooners were 4-point home favorites vs. Michigan and won 24-13.
Kansas vs. Missouri provided another good result for bettors, with the Tigers winning 42-31. Leading 35-31, Mizzou got a 63-yard Jamal Roberts touchdown run with 1:49 remaining to cover the 5.5-point spread.
“That late TD by Missouri to cover really hurt. The spread result was no bueno. Kansas definitely should’ve covered,” Murray said.
A few miles away at the South Point, Andrews enjoyed a decent Saturday.
“Illinois was a big win for us. Kentucky covering was pretty big. The Oklahoma win and cover was good,” Andrews said. “The sharp guys steamed Tulane really good, and they only won by two.”
Duke was a trendy 2.5-point home underdog, but Illinois rolled 45-19. Kentucky lost to Ole Miss 30-23, but covered as an 8.5-point underdog. Tulane closed as a 13.5-point favorite at South Alabama, then squeaked out a 33-31 victory.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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