There comes a time for each NFL QB when his contract has run its course. Generally that occurs on the literal finish of the deal. Extra typically, the workforce and quarterback collide for contract negotiations earlier than the deal is over — or the workforce trades (or cuts) the quarterback.
This offseason, we’ve seen multiple workforce maintain enterprise with its quarterback. Maybe most notably, 49ers QB Brock Purdy inked a five-year extension price $265 million. NFL MVP Josh Allen additionally received a brand new take care of Buffalo. Nevertheless it has been a reasonably quiet offseason in comparison with final yr, when a number of quarterbacks signed offers that pay them $50-plus million per yr.
Over the subsequent 12 months, issues ought to get fascinating once more.
By this time subsequent yr, I feel six quarterbacks’ contracts will turn into an issue — both for the workforce or the participant. So let’s have a look at which conditions would possibly get difficult.
Present deal: 5 years, $260 million, $52 million yearly
Jackson is presently the tenth highest-paid quarterback by way of annual pay. He has additionally made $30 million fewer {dollars} than Josh Allen because the two QBs entered the NFL in 2018, which most likely would not sit nicely with Jackson.
The Ravens and Jackson might each win with a brand new deal. The QB is about to make virtually $30 million in new cash this yr, however that quantity will leap to virtually $60 million in new cash subsequent yr when his cap hit is $74.5 million. By placing collectively a brand new deal, the Ravens might decrease that 2026 hit to assist with roster-building. So there’s some incentive there.
However how a lot will Jackson need?
As a result of he might simply demand $60-plus million per yr.
Jackson is among the prime three quarterbacks within the NFL, and whereas Allen and Mahomes are taking team-friendly offers, they’ve additionally made an entire lot more cash than Jackson thus far. He can go the low cost route on the subsequent deal. Now could be time to money in.
Present deal: 4 years, $36 million, $9 million yearly
Bryce Younger (proper) and C.J. Stroud, the primary two picks of the 2023 NFL Draft, have had their share of ups and downs of their first two NFL seasons. (Picture by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures)
The 2023 draft has been a combined bag in the case of quarterbacks, but when there’s one signal-caller from that class who you possibly can guess will receives a commission massive subsequent yr, it’s Stroud.
His rookie season was a masterpiece of effectivity. He threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. And he received his OC Bobby Slowik into the dialog for just a few head teaching jobs. After all, final yr, Stroud struggled (3,727, 20 TDs, 12 INTs) and Slowik received fired. So this yr might be an enormous one for Stroud to position himself on the prime of the market. And it will virtually be a straightforward dialog if Stroud had an enormous yr. The Texans might simply give him someplace round $60 million yearly and lock him up for the longterm.
It will get difficult if Stroud’s 2025 season isn’t nice. As a result of if he struggles to carry out at a excessive stage, then there might be questions on his worth. Would he take $50 million per yr? Would he take $55 million per yr? There would possibly even be questions on whether or not the Texans delay extending him for an additional yr.
Present deal: 4 years, $37.9 million, $9.4 million yearly
Bryce Younger confirmed indicators of enchancment late within the 2024 season, probably placing the Panthers in a diffiuclt spot down the road. (Picture by Perry Knotts/Getty Pictures)
The Panthers are letting Younger run the group on the outset of 2025. Previous that, it’s anybody’s guess. He’s not precisely overpaid, given the inconsistency of his profession up to now. He confirmed indicators of high-level efficiency on the finish of final season. However with a younger core and a powerful head coach, Younger wants to start out successful video games.
If he can do this — and put up good numbers — the Panthers would possibly simply decide to him for the long run. Nevertheless it will get murky if the Panthers aren’t successful. It will get murkier if Younger’s statistics proceed to be underwhelming. He was dangerous sufficient for Carolina to bench him final yr. Younger’s 2025 season should be squeaky clear if he desires to earn himself long-term stability. As a result of in 2026, it’s straightforward to think about Younger may very well be making $50-plus million yearly. Or being a third-stringer on one other workforce.
That’s how a lot the pendulum might swing.
Present deal: 4 years, $212 million, $53.1 million yearly
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has a particular relationship together with his quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, however each of their jobs could also be in jeopardy if Miami’s 2025 season would not go nicely. (Picture by Megan Briggs/Getty Pictures)
Can Tagovailoa keep wholesome?
It is a query for the Dolphins as a lot as it’s for Tua. As a result of he can management his protections earlier than the snap, however he can’t management his offensive line’s execution of these protections. Miami must hope its offensive line is best in 2025. And that Tagovailoa stays clear. And wholesome.
Tua, in the meantime, must cease operating headfirst into defenders — like he did final yr when he suffered a concussion towards the Bills. If Tagovailoa can keep on the sphere, he would possibly simply get this offense again into the elite type of 2023.
But when not, then his contract might look bloated. Coach Mike McDaniel would possibly like Tua, but when the coach will get fired after one other down yr, will the subsequent coach assume Tagovailoa is price his price ticket? If issues don’t go nicely, there’s an out of doors shot the Dolphins will commerce Tua subsequent offseason — due to his outsized contract.
Present deal: 5 years, $275 million, $55 million yearly
New head coach Liam Coen has an enormous job. He’s in command of making Lawrence right into a $55 million QB. Final yr, Lawrence was not that. He completed with 2,045 yards, 11 passing touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 10 video games. It was a far cry from 2022, when Lawrence threw for 4,113 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions whereas taking his workforce to the playoffs.
The Jaguars handed Lawrence a large contract, as a result of what else have been they to do? He was the No. 1 general choose. He was a generational prospect. And letting him depart made little sense from a logistical standpoint — and even much less from an optics standpoint.
Every little thing is in line for Lawrence to make good on his contract. Coen is within the constructing. Brian Thomas Jr. is producing like a top-flight receiver. And the Jaguars swung massive with their trade-up for Travis Hunter.
However …
However!
The expectations for Lawrence are that he’ll far exceed what he is achieved in latest historical past.
If Lawrence fails to hit ranges of manufacturing he’s by no means managed, then the Jaguars may have some severe questions on why they’re paying Lawrence the identical quantity that the Bengals are paying Joe Burrow.
There won’t be an entire lot the Jaguars can do about Lawrence’s deal within the close to future. But when he cannot elevate his recreation, the deal will turn into an enormous downside within the close to future.
Present deal: one yr, $14 million
Can Daniel Jones play nicely sufficient to be the Colts’ starter for a lot of the 2025 season? And if that’s the case, what would a contract extension appear like? (Picture by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures)
By placing Jones on this checklist, I’ve baked in my prediction about how his season goes to go together with Indianapolis. I feel the Colts are going to get nervous about Anthony Richardson’s lack of improvement, largely as a result of the management workforce is on the recent seat. So when Richardson struggles, Indy will use these points to justify turning the place over to a extra steady presence: Jones. He’ll most likely begin 12 to fifteen video games. And through that point, he’ll seemingly put up numbers worthy of the Colts contemplating him for QB1 on a short-term deal, perhaps two years.
However then what the heck do you pay him? How good would he need to be to make Baker Mayfield cash? Or Geno Smith cash?
I feel there’s an actual shot Jones may very well be angling for $40 million yearly presently subsequent yr. Would the Colts actually pay him that?
Earlier than becoming a member of FOX Sports activities as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years overlaying the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports activities Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Comply with him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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