Halfway by the 2025 MLB season, the NL Central has emerged as essentially the most aggressive in baseball. 5 video games separated the highest 4 groups coming into Saturday.
To place that in perspective, after Friday’s video games, the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers every led their respective divisions by at the least 6.5 video games.
With the Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds having moved previous the 81-game mark, let’s check out the division contenders’ circumstances to drag away with the NL Central within the season’s second half.
1. Chicago Cubs (49-34)
Case for: Chicago has one of many majors’ prime offenses, because it confirmed in Saturday’s 12-3 win over the Astros. Per Baseball Reference, the Cubs are No. 1 in non-pitcher wins above alternative (WAR). Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the NL’s breakout star, and offseason commerce acquisition Kyle Tucker has been pretty much as good as marketed, main the workforce with a .910 OPS.
The Cubs even have MLB’s finest bullpen, coming into Saturday first in bullpen earned run common (ERA) at 2.53.
Case towards: Chicago has a top-heavy 40-man roster and should preserve its well being to stay atop the division. The Cubs even have the worst beginning rotation of the contending NL Central groups. Since Could 1, Cubs starters have a 4.75 ERA, the fifth-highest within the majors. (h/t FanGraphs)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (47-36) 2 GB
Case for: The Brewers received their fourth recreation in a row and eighth of their final 10 on Saturday, defeating the Colorado Rockies, 5-0. Milwaukee is the division’s hottest workforce, and its pitching employees is a key cause for the success.
In opposition to the Rockies, starter Quinn Priester allowed one hit and struck out 11 because the Brewers pitched their eighth shutout of the season.
Milwaukee is likely one of the league’s finest small-ball groups, ranking fourth in productive out rate (33.2 %) and posting the second-lowest double-play fee (6.9 %), solely trailing the Cubs (6.6 %).
Case towards: It is a good factor Brewers batters can manufacture runs, as a result of they don’t seem to be overwhelming opponents with their energy. Getting into Saturday, Milwaukee was No. 25 in house runs (76). Per Baseball Savant, it ranked within the backside one % in workforce barrel fee (6.1 %) and common exit velocity (88.2 mph).
3. St. Louis Cardinals (46-38) 3.5 GB
Case for: After falling a season-high 5 video games under .500 on Could 2, St. Louis is 31-19, the NL Central’s finest report. (h/t FanGraphs)
The Playing cards haven’t got a dominant beginning pitching rotation, however it’s among the many league’s most reliable. 5 pitchers have at the least 15 begins. Sonny Grey, Matthew Liberatore and Miles Mikolas have nice command, hardly ever issuing walks, whereas Steven Matz offers the Cardinals a beneficial sixth choice.
St. Louis is ninth in runs scored per recreation (4.66), but it surely really shines within the area. The Cardinals have a .990 fielding proportion, prime within the NL and second in MLB, trailing the Texas Rangers (.991).
Case towards: If St. Louis claims the division, it probably should beat the Cubs and Brewers constantly, one thing it hasn’t performed in 2025. Of their first 11 video games towards the NL Central’s prime two groups, the Cardinals are 5-6 and have been outscored 51-38.
4. Cincinnati Reds (43-40) 6 GB
Case for: Since June 1, the Reds are 14-9, their finest calendar month this season. Cincinnati’s beginning pitching rotation is among the many league’s finest, rating No. 2 in WAR (4.7) behind the Philadelphia Phillies (8.8).
Case towards: The Reds have gone 7-13 towards their NL Central competitors, being outscored 74-102. They rank within the backside 5 in WAR at first, second and third base. Elly De La Cruz, the workforce’s finest infielder, is likely one of the majors’ worst shortstops, committing a league-high 12 errors in 80 video games.
