“Bear Bets” are actual wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is definitely making.
The U.S. Open will probably be held at Oakmont Nation Membership, in Plum, Pennsylvania, for a file tenth time.
Sports activities followers will lock in for the historic occasion (the primary U.S. Open befell in 1895) from June 12-15.
There’s simply one thing extremely particular about this PGA main, and there may be enjoyable available for all — significantly relating to laying just a few wagers.
So, let’s soar into the motion.
Patrick Cantlay to complete high 10, high 20
Patrick Cantlay vs. Tommy Fleetwood
Patrick Cantlay vs. Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay to win with out Scottie Scheffler/Rory McIlroy/Bryson DeChambeau/Jon Rahm
Patrick Cantlay has been an excellent U.S. Open participant, posting 4 straight top-15s, together with what would have been a win on this market final yr, as he completed third behind Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau. We’ll see if there’s some luck within the dart throw right here at 25-1. I’ll additionally take Cantlay head-to-head in opposition to Justin Thomas, who has only one top-30 end in a serious since profitable the PGA in 2022, and Tommy Fleetwood, who’s at all times overbet on and overvalued in majors. Cantlay’s driving and iron play combo ought to give him an opportunity at par — and probably birdie — on most holes, and par is a good rating this week.
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+280) to complete high 10, (+130) to complete high 20
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+105) vs. Tommy Fleetwood
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (-115) vs. Justin Thomas
PICK: Patrick Cantlay (+2500) to win with out Scheffler/McIlroy/DeChambeau/Rahm
Conners has a run of 4 straight top-25s in majors, starting with a top-10 at Pinehurst final yr. Straka did end second within the 2023 Open Championship, however his main file is fairly spotty exterior that — he’s missed each cuts this yr and in six of his final 12 majors. Being runner-up in 2023 is one among three top-20s he has from his 16 majors. Conners is tenth in SG. Off-the-Tee, and placing the ball within the fairway will probably be important this week.
PICK: Corey Conners (-110) vs. Sepp Straka
Russell Henley to complete high 20
Russell Henley vs. Ben Griffin
Poor first rounds in each the Masters and PGA took Henley out of the match this yr, however the U.S. Open has been the place Henley has sometimes performed his greatest in majors. He’s been within the high 15 three of the final 4 years, and whereas Ben Griffin has been taking part in some terrific golf recently, that is fairly the indoctrination to main championship golf, so I am curious — and skeptical — as to how nicely that performs out.
PICK: Russell Henley (+150) to complete high 20
PICK: Russell Henley (+100) vs. Ben Griffin
Jason Day to overlook the reduce
Ryan Fox vs. Jason Day
Look, Jason Day just isn’t somebody anybody desires to “root” in opposition to. However there are positively well being issues right here. For Day to overlook the Memorial, he should have one thing fairly painful happening. A pair balls in that thick tough might actually agitate a balky again and wrist. U.S. Open-type programs haven’t been good for Day recently as he’s missed the final two and 4 of the final six cuts. Fox is available in off a win, a top-20 on the Memorial and a top-30 on the PGA, so he’s positively the in-form participant.
PICK: Jason Day (+120) to overlook the reduce
PICK: Ryan Fox (-110) vs. Jason Day
Taylor Pendrith to complete High 30
Taylor Pendrith vs. Min Woo Lee
Taylor Pendrith has been top-of-the-line drivers on tour this yr and, regardless of placing troubles, he’s posted 4 top-10s and a pair of top-5s, together with on the Quail Hole final month. Min Woo Lee is somebody I maintain anticipating to make a little bit of a leap, however it hasn’t occurred but — primarily due to poor iron play. Since profitable the Houston Open, Lee hasn’t been higher than forty ninth in any of his 5 occasions, together with an MC at Quail Hole.
PICK: Taylor Pendrith (+160) to complete high 30
PICK: Taylor Pendrith (-115) vs. Min Woo Lee
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen to make the reduce
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen vs. Matt Wallace
Neergaard-Petersen simply missed the reduce on the PGA, however performed nicely within the different two PGA Tour occasions he participated in, practically profitable the Puerto Rico Open. Wallace has missed the reduce in additional than half the Tour occasions he’s performed this yr, so regardless of the foremost outlier top-20 within the PGA for Wallace, I’ll go together with the extra constant Neergard-Petersen.
PICK: Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson (-120) to make the reduce
PICK: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (-110) vs. Matt Wallace
Xander Schauffele to complete High 20
Xander’s run of 12 straight main top-20s ended at Quail Hole when Schauffele completed T-28. He hasn’t been absolutely wholesome this yr, however seems to completely embrace the situations and what to anticipate from Oakmont this week. The psychological battle is an enormous a part of main championship golf and the very fact Schauffele has that down, it is time to begin a brand new top-20 streak.
PICK: Xander Schauffele (-120) to complete high 20
Xander Schauffele sits fifth on the oddsboard at +2200 to win the U.S. Open 2025 in Oakmont, Pennsylvania. (Photograph by Andy Lyons/Getty Photographs)
Reduce Line Over 147.5
There’s +8 as a reduce line? Yeah, it might simply occur, accurately sunny Thursday and Friday, making issues quick and agency — which means the greens needs to be insanely fast and tough. I want this reduce line wager to a profitable rating prop, as there may be rain anticipated over the weekend, which could soften issues up some. No rain, we’re +4 or in order a profitable rating. Rain would imply -4 is feasible, so let’s simply anticipate lovely carnage the primary two days and a few huge names to overlook the reduce.
PICK: Reduce Line (+100) Over 147.5
Rory McIlroy to overlook the reduce
Talking of lacking the reduce — the place is Rory’s head proper now? For the reason that driver controversy on the PGA, McIlroy has been a multitude, ending T-47 on the PGA and lacking the reduce in Canada. He additionally skipped out on the Memorial and didn’t give Jack Nicklaus a heads-up, after which reportedly shot 81 in a apply spherical at Oakmont. After, it appeared wish to me, he had this misplaced look to him. We had been all rooting for him to complete off the profession slam at Augusta, however since then it has been all downhill for Rory, who won’t see the weekend right here.
PICK: Rory McIlroy (+250) to overlook the reduce
Justin Thomas to overlook the reduce
I discussed earlier how JT has only one main top-30 since profitable the PGA in 2022. He’s additionally missed the reduce in a half dozen majors since, together with every of the final two U.S. Opens. His propensity to overlook the green — 121st in driving accuracy, 94th SG Off-the Tee — means he may very well be within the thick stuff lots. And that will be the kiss of loss of life right here.
PICK: Justin Thomas (+175) to overlook the reduce
Min Woo Lee to overlook the reduce
Lee has struggled in each majors this yr and has missed the reduce in two of his final three. Lee’s putter is one of the best a part of his recreation, but when he isn’t hitting greens, then surviving on one-putt pars just isn’t the best way to go right here.
PICK: Min Woo Lee (-110) to overlook the reduce
Brooks Koepka to overlook the reduce
Koepka has performed 4 rounds in two majors this yr. Do the mathematics — meaning he’s missed the reduce in each, with 74 being his greatest spherical. We’re a few years eliminated now from Koepka being the must-play in majors, as he hasn’t posted a top-25 for the reason that 2023 U.S. Open. His final seven majors: Reduce, Reduce, T-43, T-26, T-26, T-45, T-64.
PICK: Brooks Koepka (+105) to overlook the reduce
Max Greyserman to make the reduce
Greyserman’s three majors for the reason that begin of final yr have all been greater than respectable — T-33, T-32 and T-21 at Pinehurst final yr. He’s posted a spherical within the 60s in every of them. He’s missed simply two cuts in 17 occasions this yr, making the reduce in each majors. His distance off the tee ought to assist him make it 3-for-3 in main cuts this yr.
PICK: Max Greyserman (-110) to make the reduce
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has coated sports activities for practically three many years. Whereas school soccer has been his focus, he additionally enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such occasions. Chris not too long ago gained the inaugural Circa Soccer Invitational and completed within the High 10 of the Golden Nugget Soccer Contest. He is a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Keep in mind, “The much less you wager, the extra you lose if you win!” Observe him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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