Paths to Victory: Breaking down the two bantamweight title fights at UFC 316

The UFC is headed again to New Jersey and it’s bringing two bantamweight title fights with it.

This Saturday on the Prudential Middle, Merab Dvalishvili places his bantamweight title on the road in a rematch with Sean O’Malley in the principle occasion of UFC 316. Simply earlier than that, Julianna Peña places her girls’s bantamweight belt up for grabs towards Kayla Harrison within the co-main occasion. It’s two essential fights with large ramifications for his or her divisions, so let’s check out each bouts and take a look at the keys to victory for each title fights on Saturday.

Paths to Victory for Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley at UFC 316

If it looks as if we simply broke down this combat, it’s as a result of we did. Dvalishvili and O’Malley first squared off simply 9 months in the past at UFC 306. I did an entire breakdown of that combat, and while I was wrong in my prediction, the core level stays the identical: Dvalishvili has cardio for days and relentless wrestling, that O’Malley has to discover a method to disrupt if he needs an opportunity to win. The issue is, O’Malley didn’t achieve that mission the final day trip.

Of their first combat, Dvalishvili principally had his means with issues. O’Malley wasn’t capable of preserve himself at vary or critically damage Dvalishvili, resulting in an inevitable Merab-ing. Afterward, in fact, O’Malley stated he had a torn labrum in his hip that prevented him from correctly getting ready, and maybe that’s a giant deal to you. However I’m not so positive. Sure, O’Malley could be a little bit extra ready to do laborious grappling than he was final time, however is that sufficient to alter the result?

If O’Malley needs to get his belt again, he has to maintain his again off the fence, and preserve Dvalishvili at vary. Furthermore, he has to punish Dvalishvili at vary. Working away from Merab for 25 minutes received’t win rounds and it possible simply gasses O’Malley out. He must pop Dvalishvili with pictures to the physique and transfer. The teep kick must be his finest good friend on Saturday because it retains vary, works the physique, and doesn’t require a giant dedication to attain. Teep, circle, teep, circle, after which, when Dvalishvili inevitably does get inside, break grips and pivot as quick as doable. Don’t let Merab chain wrestle as a result of if he begins doing that, the battle is misplaced.

And for Dvalishvili, the sport plan is straightforward, simply do you. Dvalishvili has the very best cardio in MMA historical past and he is aware of find out how to flip fights into CrossFit competitions. Nobody can sustain with him in that, and that’s why he’s so efficient (additionally, he’s very sturdy). If Merab doesn’t pull a “Canelo Arms” Belal Muhammad and attempt to develop into a boxer in a single day, he ought to be ok with his possibilities.

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Paths to victory for Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison at UFC 316

After reclaiming the ladies’s bantamweight title with a contentious choice win over Raquel Pennington final yr, Peña begins her second title run towards two-time PFL champion Kayla Harrison. However this combat is for extra than simply the ladies’s 135-pound title — it’s additionally for a shot on the soon-to-be-returning Amanda Nunes. Can Peña as soon as once more play spoiler to the long-awaited Nunes vs. Harrison matchup?

Nicely, if she’s going to, Peña has her work reduce out for her. You don’t get to be a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo accidentally, and that’s the sport Peña should be ready to fight. Harrison is a pressure of nature, with astounding physicality and a deep properly of technical capability on the ground. Her A, B, and C video games all concerned clinching her opponent, hitting them with some judo, after which working them over on the ground with elbows and punches, till she will be able to discover a submission. So the first mission for Peña needs to be to forestall that from occurring.

How can she do this? If we’re being trustworthy, she most likely can’t; at the least, not early on. Peña has by no means been an amazing defensive wrestler, or grappler for that matter. Peña’s sport is offensive aggression, grit, and sturdiness. It’s going to be the latter two that make the distinction for her on Saturday. Peña has to outlive the early storm from Harrison, after which take over with dogged dedication and superior cardio down the stretch. Harrison is slicing an unlimited quantity of weight, that means that if Peña can merely not get stopped within the first few rounds, she will be able to flip the tide like she did to upset Amanda Nunes as soon as upon a time.

For Harrison, the plan is equally easy, end Peña early. Harrison will not be bodily well-equipped to get right into a back-and-forth struggle over 25 minutes with somebody like Peña. However she could be very outfitted to seize Peña, toss her, and faucet her out. It’s a little bit of a bet, however Harrison is finest served by pushing her chips within the center early as a substitute of making an attempt a measured method that short-changes her capability to win.

Predictions

As you may guess from the breakdowns, each of those fights have clear winners, to me.

Whereas I do imagine O’Malley could make issues a little bit extra attention-grabbing towards Dvalishvili this time round, the sensible cash is on a repeat efficiency. No fighter is ever one hundred pc heading right into a bout and O’Malley’s efficiency within the first one wasn’t some large anomaly. He’s by no means been an elite defensive wrestler, and Merab is sturdy sufficient to eat O’Malley’s pictures and get to his spots. I believe the identical factor occurs once more.

Merab Dvalishvili def. Sean O’Malley through unanimous choice (48-47×3)

Kayla Harrison is the largest betting favourite on the cardboard, and I absolutely agree with that as a result of it is a stylistic nightmare for Peña. Peña is at her finest when her chin and can energy can let her Homer Simpson her method to victory, however toughness doesn’t actually matter when the blood provide to your mind will get reduce off. Famous grapplers like Germaine de Randamie and Valentina Shevchenko have tapped Peña, Harrison will do the identical.

Kayla Harrison def. Julianna Peña through submission (rear-naked choke) — 3:24, Spherical 1.