UFC Mexico gambling preview: Best bets for Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg

The UFC is heading again to Mexico!

On Saturday, the newest UFC Mexico Metropolis card takes place from Enviornment CDMX in Mexico Metropolis, headlined by a flyweight scrap between former two-time champion Brandon Moreno and former title challenger Steve Erceg. However earlier than that, we’ve received 12 different fights to whet our whistles, so let’s dive proper into the perfect picks and performs this weekend.

All odds are courtesy of our pals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Single Performs

Kelvin Gastelum (+240)

Gastelum takes on Joe Pyfer within the featured essential card struggle this weekend, and this quantity has already plummeted from the place it was. Earlier this week you could possibly discover Gastelum at +400 in some locations, however the sensible cash stopped that nicely sufficient. Nonetheless, it is a massive underdog worth for a man who has an actual shot at profitable on Saturday. Pyfer was presupposed to be middleweight’s subsequent massive factor till he bumped into Jack Hermansson, who didn’t merely fall over within the face of Pyfer’s physicality. That struggle revealed Pyfer nonetheless has quite a lot of rising to do, and Gastelum is strictly the type of opponent who will punish him if he hasn’t. Gastelum has an unbreakable chin, and he retains coming after an opponent even when he’s down. That’s nicely price a shot given the worth.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Prop Bets

Brandon Moreno to Win & Spherical 2 to Begin (-185)

Mixing issues up a bit on this one as a result of I needed to get barely higher odds than the Moreno straight motion at -250. That line isn’t horrible, however we will squeeze a bit extra juice out of it with this prop wager.

I really feel actually good about Moreno beating Erceg on Saturday as he’s the extra dynamic and achieved fighter. Erceg has nice boxing however his defensive wrestling isn’t the strongest, and Moreno has a extra different hanging sport plus a granite chin. I merely assume he brings too many weapons in opposition to Erceg to lose. However I’m additionally undecided how he will get it performed, as a result of he’s so well-rounded. My intestine says a submission could occur however as a substitute, I’m taking this line as a result of Moreno ought to win and he solely has two first-round finishes within the UFC and none since 2020.

Raul Rosas Jr. by Factors (+105)

Rosas Jr. is a giant favourite in opposition to Vince Morales, and it’s apparent why: other than getting the UFC push, Rosas is legitimately proficient and Morales is … much less so. Rosas shouldn’t have any massive subject scoring takedowns and dealing his grappling sport to get the win. That being mentioned, Morales hasn’t been submitted since 2018, and he’s fought some superb opponents. His sturdiness means this most likely goes to the scorecards.

Loopy Godinez by Factors (-155)

Godinez takes on Julia Polastri on the prelims on Saturday, and I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t win. Godinez is on a two-fight shedding streak however these losses got here to Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern, two of the perfect girls on the planet. Polastri, in the meantime, received a break up resolution over Cory McKenna in her most up-to-date struggle. Godinez brings quite a lot of stress and might combine within the grappling an excessive amount of for Polastri to win, however she’s not a finisher so this may go to the playing cards.

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Parlay

After hitting a giant Gimmick Parlay final weekend (Chris Duncan Parlay is now 2-0), we’re going proper again to the nicely on Saturday. No, not with a Rodriguez parlay, however with a Spherical 1 Prospect Parlay as Saturday options two fighters I graded as elite prospects coming off the most recent season of Contender Series.

David Martinez (-400)

Martinez takes on Saimon Oliveira in his promotional debut on Saturday and that is an apparent set-up struggle for “Black Spartan.” Oliveira is 0-2 within the UFC and hasn’t fought in two years, whereas Martinez is already a elegant product, ready-made to start out competing with high-level opposition. The previous Combate champion ought to have himself a showcase on Saturday.

Ateba Gautier (-430)

Saturday can be Gautier’s UFC debut as he takes on Jose Daniel Medina on the prelims in what can be a set-up struggle. Whereas Martinez is well-rounded and polished, Gautier is a bodily specimen who I in comparison with Melvin Manhoef. Gautier wants some improvement, however Medina is the suitable opponent to let him get simply that whereas additionally not offering a severe threat of setback.

Parlay these two bets collectively for -185 odds.

Wrap Up

Sizzling dayum we did it! Been ready for a giant weekend all 12 months and we finally had one with UFC London. We missed on the primary occasion (badly, I would add) however smashed the whole lot else, together with some massive underdog numbers in there. Let’s hope we will preserve issues rolling for UFC Mexico.

Till subsequent week, benefit from the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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