Manel Kape is as shut as he’s ever been to preventing for the flyweight championship.
It was all laid out for the Portuguese striker when the UFC Vegas 103 major occasion was first introduced. Beat Brandon Royval, a latest title challenger, after which transfer on to face Alexandre Pantoja (or the winner of Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France, if that rumored bout involves fruition). Because it so usually goes on this enterprise, these plans took a flip when Royval was compelled to withdraw as a result of damage and Asu Almabayev was put in his place.
Kape ought to nonetheless be the No. 1 contender with a win—he’s presently No. 10 at flyweight within the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, however have in mind Pantoja has already fought lots of the high contenders (together with Kape), some greater than as soon as—however he now faces a lesser identified opponent that’s arguably extra harmful than Royval. It’s by no means straightforward attending to the highest, is it?
Don’t rule out the No. 13-ranked Almabayev upsetting Kape and placing the matchmakers on the spot with a championship callout. He’s 4-0 within the UFC, 21-2 as a professional, and he’s received 17 straight fights. Add in a win over Kape and people numbers add as much as a more-than-worthy title challenger.
What: UFC Vegas 103
The place: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, March 1. The five-fight preliminary card begins at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, adopted by a five-fight major card at 7 p.m. ET additionally on ESPN+.
Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev
If we get the Manel Kape that confirmed up towards Bruno “Bulldog” Silva, I’d choose that man to beat anybody. Even Alexandre Pantoja.
Say what you need about Kape’s usually inconsistent output, he was marvelous at UFC Tampa. Silva is an underrated flyweight contender and Kape made it appear to be he didn’t belong within the octagon with him. That was the Kape everybody has been ready for since he made the leap from RIZIN 5 years in the past.
Asu Almabayev ought to implement a lot of the identical methods that Muhammad Mokaev did when he received an in any other case forgettable determination towards Kape. The distinction is Almabayev truly punches individuals on the bottom, in contrast to Mokaev. Nobody goes to mistake him for prime Mark Coleman, however Almabayev’s skill to attain factors and never simply rack up unconvincing management time ought to make a robust impression with the judges.
It’s on Kape to ensure this doesn’t go to the scorecards. Almabayev isn’t a nasty striker, however his protection shall be put to the take a look at as a result of Kape assaults with pace and from quite a lot of angles. One dangerous takedown try is all Kape must drive a counter knee by way of Almabayev’s dome piece.
I don’t really feel nice about it, however I’ve Almabayev as my pick to be flyweight champion by the end of 2025 and I’ve to stay to my weapons. He spoils Kape’s plans tonight.
Choose: Almabayev
Julian Marquez vs. Cody Brundage
If I hear the UFC or anybody else discuss with this as a co-main occasion once more, I’d snap.
Not each battle that’s second to final on a card is a co-main occasion. That’s not how this stuff work. There are not any stakes right here, no ranked contenders concerned, no longtime fan favorites, no legends on a farewell tour. Respectfully. This can be a penultimate bout. That’s a extra correct approach of placing it and nonetheless sounds type of cool.
I don’t imply to insult Julian Marquez (stepping in for The Final Fighter 32 winner Ryan Loder) nor Cody Brundage. They don’t schedule the fights. However this such an odd placement for this matchup and the way it’s being promoted. Marquez is on a three-fight shedding streak and hasn’t picked up a win since April 2021. The final man he beat? The immortal Sam Alvey!
Simply take a look at this graphic they made for Marquez.
What are we doing?!?
Brundage went winless in 2024, falling to Bo Nickal after which going to a no-contest with Abdul Razak Alhassan after Alhassan went Happy-Go-Jacky on the again of his head with elbows. Not together with the NC, he’s 10-6 in his profession. Suffice to say, this isn’t precisely a conflict of the titans.
Anyway, give me Brundage on this one. He’s a gritty wrestler who can survive Marquez’s harmful putting and frustrate him with takedowns. You may’t rule out Marquez as a result of he has his again towards the wall and he’ll battle prefer it, however Brundage at all times goes in there like his job is on the road. On this case, that’s most likely true for each guys.
Brundage by determination.
Choose: Brundage
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics
Now it is a co-main occasion matchup! Or near it, anyway.
We’ve obtained two unbelievable lightweights lined up right here with the extra battle-tested Nasrat Haqparast going through one of many division’s most fun up-and-comers, Esteban Ribovics. Overlook mixing the martial arts, that is going to be an old style throw-down, one which belongs exterior the comfortable confines of the UFC APEX.
Then again, the smaller cage means Haqparast and Ribovics have much less room to maneuver, and which means we’ll be handled to 1 breathtaking conflict after one other. In that scenario, I favor Ribovics, who focuses on punishing mixtures. Haqparast’s left hand can change the sport at at any second although, so this shall be something however a cushty win for Ribovics.
Count on one other Combat of the Evening candidate from these putting specialists, with Ribovics popping out on high after touchdown the lion’s share of the ability punches.
Choose: Ribovics
William Gomis vs. Hyder Amil
I’ve ceaselessly referred to William Gomis because the featherweight Leon Edwards and I stand by that description and all of the constructive and detrimental connotations that include it. He’s a talented fighter in all points of the sport, has nice cardio, and simply is aware of how you can win. It doesn’t matter that viral highlights have been few and much between for him, he’s 4-0 within the UFC and he lately stole a break up determination from one of many division’s boogeymen, Joanderson Brito.
Hyder Amil is just about the alternative. The 34-year-old is younger in his profession and unproven, regardless of exhibiting some tantalizing potential as a knockout striker. His finest wager is to catch Gomis early, one thing few have been capable of do to the defensive-minded Frenchman.
I mistakenly took Brito to beat Gomis final time (honest or not, Brito misplaced on the scorecards), so I’m going to trip with Gomis till he faces somebody within the high 15 or a extra compelling prospect. He simply has too many instruments with which to pull Amil by way of a troublesome three-round contest.
Choose: Gomis
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson
In Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson, we’ve two tall and rangy welterweights who use their bodily attributes in several methods. Whereas Barlow is extra tactical, in search of to peck away at his foes till a gap presents itself, Patterson is extra inclined to counter and search for alternatives to grapple.
That favors Barlow, who has higher instruments for main the dance. True, he hasn’t proven the identical ending acumen as Patterson, however that has extra to do with fashion matchups and alternative. Barlow isn’t going out of his consolation zone to chase a knockout and that could be what will get him the win right here.
Each these guys have the potential to be welterweight mainstays, however I’m going with Barlow to attain a knockout within the second or third spherical.
Choose: Barlow
Preliminaries
Mario Pinto def. Austen Lane
Chepe Mariscal def. Ricardo Ramos
Danny Silva def. Lucas Almeida
JJ Aldrich def. Andrea Lee
