Right here is my complete group of props and bets for Sunday’s Super Bowl LIX on FOX, and I figured I might preserve the theme.
No, I’m not doing this to be cute. I really do like these performs.
And who doesn’t like prompt gratification? Particularly on the contrarian aspect!
Let’s dive in.
PART I
Patrick Mahomes first rush o4.5 yards: -120 (SuperBook)
After being burned by the Mahomes Over speeding yards prop within the Tremendous Bowl vs. San Francisco a couple of years in the past on account of kneel-downs, I made a decision that is the easiest way to play Mahomes and his scrambling means.
The Kansas City offensive line hasn’t been nice recently, and with the energy of the Eagles being up entrance, stress will probably end in Mahomes taking off and doubtlessly selecting up massive yardage on the one kind of play Vic Fangio and the Eagles protection can’t actually scheme for.
If , Mahomes first run vs. Buffalo was for 4 yards and his first vs. Houston went for 15.
Saquon Barkley first rush u4.5 yards: -105 (Circa)
Barkley’s 60-yard TD run on the Eagles first play from scrimmage vs. Washington is recent on everybody’s thoughts, so I feel there can be a very good little bit of recency bias from those that wager this prop, and a majority of the bets can be on the Over.
Sure, he additionally had a 16 yard acquire on his first carry towards Inexperienced Bay, however I’d count on the Chiefs to load up towards the run and drive Jalen Hurts to beat them. Barkley has been growth or bust within the postseason, with a single carry or two accounting for a wholesome chunk of his yardage complete.
Right here’s hoping he doesn’t go growth on carry No. 1. In Spags we belief.
A.J. Brown first reception u11.5 yards: -110 (Circa)
Devonta Smith first reception u9.5 yards: -110 (SuperBook)
In the event you look at the Eagles move recreation vs. Washington, it was primarily throws outdoors the hashes and numbers all recreation. There was nothing downfield within the center. That’s partly as a result of success they’d successful first down and will afford to provide their proficient WR group a possibility to make guys miss on the surface, albeit towards a poor Washington protection.
Nonetheless, the Chiefs corners could be a bit harder to show and beat on an island.
I’ll again the Okay.C. protection right here to not enable a protracted acquire by both man off the bat.
Tremendous Bowl LIX Tremendous 6: Who’s going to win the Tremendous Bowl?
PART II
Juju Smith-Schuster anytime TD: +550
Juju Smith-Schuster o16.5 receiving yards
We all know in these Tremendous Bowls, there’s a good historical past of utterly random Chiefs discovering the top zone — see Mecole Hardman, MVS, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and Damien Williams. So let’s throw an informed dart on Smith-Schuster, who, in his final full season in Okay.C., had 101 targets and is somebody Patrick Mahomes is aware of.
My colleague Geoff Schwartz has talked concerning the lack of Nakobe Dean actually mattering right here and JuJu could possibly be a beneficiary of some matchup benefits with Oren Burks. We gotta try to be a little bit totally different from the group-think on the market and this can be a spot the place I will zag when everyone seems to be zigging.
Saquon Barkley longest run u25.5 yards: -130
I already talked about taking Barkley going beneath 4.5 yards on his first carry, and I’ll again that up with Barkley’s longest carry at 25.5 yards. DraftKings was the lone spot I noticed nonetheless with a 25.5 posted, albeit juiced a bit increased.
First holding penalty of recreation referred to as on Kansas Metropolis: -115
Whereas we don’t know which staff will get the ball first, I’ll simply use a little bit logic and say the Chiefs would be the staff to get referred to as for the primary holding penalty. Their offensive line shuffling has created some points, and all of us count on the Chiefs to throw the ball greater than Philadelphia. That infers to me that we’re extra prone to see a holding penalty referred to as on a Okay.C. move play than a Philly working play. And we’ve additionally seen Mike Caliendo wrestle on some run performs as nicely.
Passing TDs in Tremendous Bowl LIX larger than targets in Saturday’s Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid: -140
Now the enjoyable stuff.
It is a large recreation atop the La Liga standings on Saturday, when Actual Madrid hosts Atlético Madrid. Sometimes, Diego Simeone’s aspect doesn’t concede many targets in massive matches, and I feel he’d be fairly pleased to get out of this one with a degree away from Atleti’s house discipline.
Within the final 11 La Liga conferences between the 2, 9 occasions we’ve seen two targets or fewer scored, as soon as we’ve seen three targets and as soon as we’ve seen 4 targets. So, odds are we’re not going to see a ton of targets right here.
I feel it is honest to count on a baseline of three TD passes within the Tremendous Bowl, which probably means a push at worst, and doubtlessly a win. And if we get 4 TD passes, that makes our probabilities of cashing even that significantly better.
Matt Araiza touchback: +195
Braden Mann touchback: +235
We count on these groups to go for it on fourth down close to midfield, but when we’re taking a look at fourth-and-distance, that definitely is not going to be the case.
These punters so typically try to get cute and land the ball contained in the 3- or 5-yard line, and both kick the ball proper into the top zone or the ball simply rolls into it for a touchback. Possibly this would be the recreation they be taught to simply land it on the 10 or simply kick it out of bounds, however we’re not relying on it.
Giannis Antetokounmpo P+R+A vs. PHI -1/2 vs. complete factors in Tremendous Bowl
Antetokounmpo may go off Sunday towards the defensively-challenged Sixers. He’s averaging round 50 mixed factors, rebounds and assists per recreation on the season, so it’s barely increased than the full within the Tremendous Bowl.
I count on a barely decrease scoring recreation Sunday in New Orleans and relying on whether or not Joel Embiid decides to play, we may see Giannis go for one thing like 40/15/7, and I’d really feel actually good about my possibilities.
Longest TD in Tremendous Bowl LIX u39.5 yards
With how these groups defend, I’m unsure we see a giant scoring play. Count on each groups to try to preserve every part beneath, which suggests it can take an awesome particular person effort to attain from distance.
Possibly my handicap is fallacious on Barkley, and he’ll break a protracted one, however I’ll belief Spags and the Okay.C. protection to maintain him from ripping off one other 60-yarder.
Tremendous Bowl LIX
Tremendous Bowl LIX — coming to you reside on Feb. 9, 2025. Stream Live & Free in 4K on Tubi or watch on FOX (Should be signed in to look at).
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has coated sports activities for almost three many years. Whereas school soccer has been his focus, he additionally enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such occasions. Chris not too long ago gained the inaugural Circa Soccer Invitational and completed within the Prime 10 of the Golden Nugget Soccer Contest. He is a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Keep in mind, “The much less you wager, the extra you lose while you win!” Comply with him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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