Anthony Hernandez enters his UFC foremost occasion with Gregory Rodrigues because the betting favourite, however the line has tightened and shifted by combat week. The middleweight bout headlines UFC Struggle Night time on Saturday, August 22, at Golden 1 Middle in Sacramento, California.
Hernandez is priced round -166 to -176 on the moneyline, whereas Rodrigues sits close to +140 to +147. A $166 wager on Hernandez at -166 would return $100 in revenue if he wins; a $100 wager on Rodrigues at +140 would revenue $140.
The preliminary market was nearer. Hernandez opened round -147, with Rodrigues at +120, placing the California native forward with out making him an awesome selection. Different early numbers had Hernandez at -142 and Rodrigues at +122, earlier than bettors utilizing Kalshi promo code pushed the favourite into the next vary.
There was some late give-and-take. Hernandez reached as excessive as roughly -184 to -191 at factors, whereas Rodrigues moved out to the +145 vary. Newer costs have eased nearer to Hernandez -163 to -180 and Rodrigues +130 to +152. Briefly: cash initially favored Hernandez, however the matchup has not become a runaway market.
Hernandez vs. Rodrigues UFC odds
Hernandez, ranked No. 7 at middleweight, brings a 15-3 file with one no contest into the five-round project. He’s coming off a third-round TKO loss to Sean Strickland in February, which ended an eight-fight profitable streak. Earlier than that setback, “Fluffy” had submitted Roman Dolidze and Roman Kopylov, stopped Michel Pereira and Edmen Shahbazyan, and beat Brendan Allen over three rounds.
The UFC betting case is constructed round tempo, takedowns and prolonged grappling exchanges. He has 9 submission wins as knowledgeable and has usually taken over as soon as fights turn into tiring, awkward grappling battles. Sacramento additionally offers Hernandez a regional connection. He was born in Dunnigan, California, fights out of El Dorado Hills and began his professional profession with a first-round knockout in Sacramento in 2014.
Rodrigues, ranked No. 10, arrives on a three-fight profitable streak. The Brazilian is 19-6, with 12 knockout victories, and most not too long ago knocked out Brunno Ferreira within the first spherical at UFC 326 in March. He additionally beat Roman Kopylov by unanimous choice and stopped Jack Hermansson within the first spherical throughout that run.
“Robocop” owns seven UFC middleweight knockouts, tied for fourth-most in division historical past. His cleanest route is more likely to be early harm: retaining the combat upright, making Hernandez pay on entries and creating the kind of trade that may swing a foremost occasion in a single sequence.
Hernandez is the choose to win, more than likely by submission or late TKO after he turns the combat right into a high-work grappling contest. Rodrigues stays a reside underdog as a result of his energy offers him an actual likelihood to alter the script earlier than Hernandez can settle into prime management.
For bettors backing Hernandez, the worth has turn into much less engaging than the opener. The extra particular play is Hernandez by submission, since 9 of his 15 wins have come that means and Rodrigues has been completed by strikes 4 instances however has not recorded a submission loss. For an underdog ticket, Rodrigues by KO/TKO has the clearest logic: 12 of his 19 wins are knockouts, and he has proven he can finish fights early in opposition to ranked-level opposition.
