The NFL season is underway … sort of.
This weekend, every team will have played at least one preseason game. So, with the regular season still a month away, let’s take a look at one of the more fascinating divisions in the league, the NFC North.
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The Lions are the favorite to win it at +170, despite finishing in last place in 2025. The Packers were one of the best teams in football for much of last season, and are +225 to win the division this year. However, a second-half collapse and an injury to star linebacker Micah Parsons took a 9-3-1 start, and turned it into the seventh seed in the NFC and a wild-card loss to the Bears.
Those same Bears won the NFC North for the first time since 2018, and are +305 to repeat as division champs.
The team with the longest odds on the board is the one I like to win — the Minnesota Vikings at +510 (a $10 bet pays $51). Two years ago, the Vikings were 14-2 entering the final game of the season against the Lions, and the winner of that game would determine not only the division winner but the top-seed in the NFC. The Vikings were defeated soundly that night, as well as the following week in the playoffs against Rams.
The Vikings then saw quarterback Sam Darnold leave in free agency, and the team missed the playoffs in 2025.
But a major reason for optimism in 2026 is the quarterback play the Vikings got a year ago — between J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer — was near the bottom of the league and the team still managed to go 9-8. With the addition of the polarizing-but-talented Kyler Murray at QB, there is hope that 2026 could be similar to 2024.
The Vikings have perhaps the most respected defensive coordinator in the NFL, as Brian Flores has led the Vikings to top-seven finishes in points allowed the last two seasons, and his unit finished third in yards allowed in 2025.
The Bears won this division last year, but were +22 in turnovers and are a likely candidate for regression in 2026. The Vikings have what should be another very solid defense, an outstanding group of skill players, and again, a major upgrade at QB. They also avoid the Seahawks and Rams on the schedule, and take on the Packers in Week 1, well before Parsons can return.
At +510 odds, I think the Vikings could be a surprise team in the NFC North in 2026.
