With the 2025 NFL season simply across the nook, it is time to assess how profitable — or how unsuccessful — groups shall be this upcoming season.
There are two groups whose win totals stood out to me particularly: the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Giants.
And primarily based on what we learn about these groups from final 12 months and their offseason strikes, I am able to throw down some money on these Niners and Giants.
Let’s check out what I feel their regular-season win totals shall be.
San Francisco 49ers Over/Underneath 10.5 wins
The 49ers’ schedule, together with some constructive harm regression, has Kyle Shanahan’s squad making an attempt for the 1-seed this season. The 49ers gained six video games final 12 months, regardless of a roster stuffed with accidents. Star operating again Christian McCaffrey performed in simply 4 video games. Broad receiver Brandon Aiyuk appeared in simply seven video games. All-Professional left sort out Trent Williams performed solely 10 video games.
On protection, security Talanoa Hufanga additionally performed in simply seven video games, and defensive sort out Javon Hargrave made it onto the sphere for under three video games. The listing goes on and on.
The 49ers have been unlucky with their harm luck final season. Damage luck is a kind of issues that we see regression to the imply the next season. If a workforce is beat up one season, they typically come again wholesome the next 12 months. The 49ers’ roster is top-heavy, however when wholesome, it’s onerous to not marvel on the expertise.
They’ve a top-tier operating again, left sort out, vast receivers, move rush, center linebacker and a very good cornerback. The Niners boast extra playmakers than most of their opponents, which is a crucial consider predicting win totals. Add in quarterback Brock Purdy, who’s strong, predictable and environment friendly within the Niners’ well-above-average offense.
The 49ers’ schedule this season units them up for achievement. They’ll play their six divisional video games and can doubtless be favored in not less than 4, possibly 5, particularly once they host the Rams. The 49ers — and the remainder of the NFC West — should play each South divisions of their rotational schedule. These divisions are the worst on paper within the NFL. Their sport at Houston is likely one of the few matchups the place they could be underdogs this season.
For the reason that 49ers completed in final place within the division final 12 months, they spherical out their schedule with three video games in opposition to groups that additionally completed in final place in 2024. This contains the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and Chicago Bears. The 49ers ought to find yourself being favored in 15 of their 17 video games.
The mix of San Fran’s expertise, some harm regression to the imply and its favorable schedule signifies that squad ought to win not less than 11 video games this season.
PICK: San Francisco 49ers Over 10.5 wins
Will Brock Purdy lead the 49ers to the Tremendous Bowl this 12 months?
New York Giants Over/Underneath 5.5 wins
The New York Giants have three components that I typically view as the explanation why groups go Over their win complete. The primary, as talked about above, is harm regression to the imply.
The second is the results of one-score video games. The Giants have been 1-8 in these video games final season, and the next season that tends to reverse. It is unlikely a workforce is 8-1 in one-score video games, however they shift from 1-8 to someplace round 4-5 or 5-4. That’s an enormous distinction within the general results of a season.
The third issue is a quarterback improve. I’m not excessive on Russell Wilson typically, however he’s nonetheless higher than the Giants’ quarterback scenario from final season.
So, the Giants meet a lot of the standards I’d use for selecting a workforce to go Over their win complete.
Nonetheless, they’ve one of many hardest schedules within the NFL, and I’m uncertain they will come out of October with greater than a single win. In truth, they’d be lucky to be favored in a couple of sport this season.
Right here’s the primary two months of their season: They open at Washington and Dallas, then host the Chiefs and Chargers. After that, a visit to New Orleans, adopted by two video games in opposition to the Eagles, with the Broncos sandwiched in between. They begin November with the 49ers, then face the Bears, Packers and Lions — oh my! They’re going to be an underdog in each sport, and presumably a decide in New Orleans.
In order that poor report in shut video games could not even matter this season, as they may discover themselves down by double digits late in video games. After they begin gradual, the teaching employees could shortly flip to Jaxson Dart, who is not able to be a starter but. New York’s season goes to spiral uncontrolled shortly. So I’m going with the Giants Underneath 5.5 wins.
PICK: New York Giants Underneath 5.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper sort out for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Observe him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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