The Notre Dame tax is getting ridiculous.
And that’s coming from someone who bet the Fighting Irish against Boise State, USC and Navy, and has them as the fourth-best team in the country.
More on that game in a second.
I’ve got six football bets this weekend. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2025 Record: (28-33-4, -8.1 units)
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
No. 9 Notre Dame (-12.5, O/U 54) @ No. 22 Pittsburgh
Las Vegas bookmakers keep opening Notre Dame games high, and the market keeps driving them up. Last Saturday’s game closed -31 against Navy. Circa Sports opened the Irish -10 here, and now we’re sitting -12.5 everywhere. I think Pitt QB Mason Heintschel can move the ball against ND’s defense, but it truly comes down to the number for me. It feels like too many points.
PICK: Pittsburgh (+12.5) to lose by fewer than 12.5 points or win outright
No. 10 Texas @ No. 5 Georgia (-6.5, O/U 49.5)
The Longhorns are so disrespected here it hurts. It’s rare to get a team with this much talent and speed catching almost a touchdown, yet here we are. Georgia’s offense has gotten back on track, mostly via the running game. And that plays directly into the strength of the Texas defense. If Arch Manning can make plays, don’t be surprised if this one is tied late.
PICK: Texas (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
Florida @ No. 7 Ole Miss (-11.5, O/U 53.5)
This game has seen insane line movement throughout the week. Respected money bet Ole Miss from -13.5 to -17 last Sunday. Florida backers slowly pushed back at +17 and +16 and got us to +13.5 by Thursday afternoon. Now we’re at +11.5?! Hold the phone. Florida completely quit last week against Kentucky and there are whispers about multiple players opting out. I would need north of two touchdowns to back the Gators.
PICK: Ole Miss (-11.5) to win by more than 11.5 points
Mississippi State @ Missouri (-7, O/U 51.5)
It’s too bad that Tigers QB Beau Pribula got hurt against Vanderbilt because Missouri’s offense looks rudderless without him. Sure, Mississippi State got drilled by Georgia last week, but Missouri’s offense is a work in progress with freshman Matt Zollers running the show. This is one of those plug-your-nose-and-play-the-ugly-‘dog spots that make you squeamish until kickoff.
PICK: Mississippi State (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
Bears @ Vikings (-2.5, O/U 48)
The luckbox Bears found another horseshoe out last week because Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart was knocked out with a concussion. Now Ben Johnson’s bunch heads to Minnesota to face J.J. McCarthy and an offensive line that’s getting healthier. I believe the Vikings can run the ball on Chicago’s defense and can’t wait to see Brian Flores against Caleb Williams.
PICK: Vikings (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
Packers (-7, O/U 42.5) @ Giants
The Giants fired their head coach and made a change at quarterback. Here we go. Former St. Rita Mustang Mike Kafka replaces Brian Daboll and Jameis Winston gets the Sunday start against Green Bay. Jameis’ first starts have been magical over the years — just ask the Ravens last year. Then reality kicks in after a couple of games. Let’s ride the change and take points.
PICK: Giants (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
