Closing 4 odds haven’t any Cinderella story to inform. It’s all No. 1 seeds, as Florida meets Auburn and Houston takes on Duke in Saturday’s nationwide semifinals.
However oddsmakers are nonetheless on the lookout for a storybook ending. Within the case of Caesars Sports activities, that entails eliminating its legal responsibility on the present championship favourite.
“We’d like Duke out of there. “Then we will take the oxygen masks off,” stated Wealthy Zanco, head of school basketball buying and selling at Caesars.
Zanco and sharp college basketball bettor Paul Stone serve up their insights on Closing 4 odds, as March Insanity dives headlong into April.
Duke {Dollars}
Duke is 35-3 straight up (SU) and a stable 26-12 in opposition to the unfold (ATS). The Blue Devils have gained 15 consecutive video games, going 11-4 ATS in that span.
So it’s no shock to see Cooper Flagg & Co. as favorites vs. Houston (34-4 SU/20-17-1 ATS), in an 8:49 p.m. ET tip off on Saturday. It’s price noting the Cougars are on a 17-game successful streak, although they’re not nearly as good at protecting the quantity, going 8-7-2 ATS in that stretch.
Duke opened -4.5, rapidly superior to -5 on Sunday night time and the road has since teetered between -5.5/-5 at Caesars.
As of Thursday night, the Blue Devils are 5-point favorites.
“Clearly, there shall be a flood of public cash coming in on Duke. However there’s nothing mistaken with needing Houston on this sport,” Zanco stated. “Sharper gamers and the extra refined bets could are available on the ‘canine if it will get to Houston +6, which it would.
“I assume someone is gonna flash a 6 sooner or later, whether or not it’s us or another person.”
Whereas Duke is seeing the majority of straight point-spread bets at Caesars, straight moneyline play is leaning into Houston at +235.
A $100 guess on a Cougars outright upset would revenue $235 (whole payout $335).
Nevertheless, as has been identified typically the previous two weeks, favorites are rolling by way of March Insanity.
Chalk went 12-0 SU within the Candy 16 and Elite Eight and is 48-12 SU by way of 60 video games total.
“To be sincere, we haven’t had a ‘canine bark in fairly a while,” Zanco stated, noting a Cougars cowl is perhaps useful, however outright is much better. “We are going to want Houston in that sport.”
Kelvin Sampson on altering Houston’s tradition, Cooper Flagg, Closing 4
March Insanity Sharp Facet
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone thinks factors shall be at a premium when Houston and Duke sq. off Saturday night time.
Houston ranks No. 1 in defensive effectivity and 360th in adjusted tempo, based on statistics guru Ken Pomeroy. The Cougars additionally lead the nation in scoring protection, permitting simply 58.3 factors per sport.
“Duke clearly poses a stiff problem for Houston’s protection,” Stone stated. “The Blue Devils common virtually 84 factors a sport, and Cooper Flagg is a nightmare matchup for any workforce, along with his skill to each rating from the skin and go to the basket.”
Stone expects Houston to make the most of J’Wan Roberts as Flagg’s main defender, however {that a} couple extra 6-foot-8 sorts — Joseph Tugler and Ja’Vier Francis — may also get turns.
“Flagg goes to get his factors,” Stone stated. “However I feel Houston will make him work for all the things he will get.”
Stone stated Houston’s greatest path to potential victory is to sluggish the tempo and play as bodily because the officers will enable.
“Houston is considerably improved offensively this season. However the Cougars cannot get right into a scoring match with Duke,” he stated. “The Cougars must shorten the sport and switch it right into a rock struggle, so to talk. I like this sport to stay beneath the whole of 136.”
How will Cooper Flagg fare within the NBA?
SEC Showdown
Saturday’s first semifinal, at 6:09 p.m. ET, options acquainted foes. SEC regular-season champ Auburn meets SEC Match champ Florida.
These two groups met simply as soon as this season, on Feb. 8 at Auburn. The Gators have been hefty 11-point underdogs and pulled the outright upset 90-81.
This time round, Florida is favored, sitting at -2.5 most of this week, save for actually a couple of minutes on Sunday at -3.
“There’s a 3 on the market proper now at one or two different books. I’d suspect we’ll most likely be Florida -3 sooner or later,” Zanco stated on Wednesday. “We’re seeing some Florida motion, however they’re betting Auburn, too. We’ll most likely want Auburn, however I don’t understand how a lot of a call it’ll be.”
Caesars Sports activities wouldn’t thoughts both of those groups successful all of it on Monday night time. As Zanco famous above, a Duke championship is a loser for the ebook.
Houston is sweet for Caesars, too, however simply not nearly as good. There’s a $10,000 bet on Cougars +2200 to win the title, which might flip a $220,000 revenue.
“We do extraordinarily nicely to Auburn within the futures pool, and very nicely to Florida,” Zanco stated, whereas noting all 4 No. 1 seeds may get the job accomplished. “Any one among these groups may reduce down the nets.”
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He’s a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s primarily based in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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